Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania

This paper, investigates causal relationships among agriculture, manufacturing and export in Tanzania by using time series data for the period between 1970 and 2005. The empirical results show in both sectors there is Granger causality where agriculture causes both exports and manufacturing. Exports also cause both agricultural GDP and manufacturing GDP and any two variables out of three jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence that manufacturing does not cause export and agriculture. Regarding cointegration, pairwise agricultural GDP and export are cointegrated, export and manufacture are cointegrated. Agriculture and manufacture are cointegrated but they are lag sensitive. However, three variables, manufacturing, export and agriculture both together are cointegrated showing that they share long run relation and this has important economic implications.

The Effect of Product Classifications on the Formulation of Export Unit Value Indices: A Comparison of Export Unit Value Indices based on SITC and HS

With the globalization of economic activity, the relative weight of foreign trade in national economic activities has increased, and the question of how to measure trends in the value and quantity of international trade has become an important issue for policy-makers and economists. This paper compares the chain-linked indices formulated by Masato Kuroko, based on HS this fiscal year for individual industry categories and countries with chain-linked indices based on SITC-R1 codes, in order to study how changes in the quality composition of the same products, which cannot be considered using unit value indices based on SITC-R1 codes, can be considered using unit value indices based on the more detailed HS product classifications.