Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania

This paper, investigates causal relationships among agriculture, manufacturing and export in Tanzania by using time series data for the period between 1970 and 2005. The empirical results show in both sectors there is Granger causality where agriculture causes both exports and manufacturing. Exports also cause both agricultural GDP and manufacturing GDP and any two variables out of three jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence that manufacturing does not cause export and agriculture. Regarding cointegration, pairwise agricultural GDP and export are cointegrated, export and manufacture are cointegrated. Agriculture and manufacture are cointegrated but they are lag sensitive. However, three variables, manufacturing, export and agriculture both together are cointegrated showing that they share long run relation and this has important economic implications.

Post-decentralization regional economies and actors -- putting the capacity of Local governments to the test

Decentralization in Indonesia was introduced institutionally in 2001, with a democratization drive promoted by international donors and by the intention of the new government to clear away the centralistic image of Soeharto. Decentralization has had some effects on regional economies and on local government administration. Compared to the period before decentralization, the share of gross regional domestic product and local government finance has increased in Java, though investment and bank borrowing have expanded to the outer islands. In qualitative aspects, decentralization has transferred not only administrative authority but also many new vested interests from the center to regions. Local governments have become more extensive economic actors in regional economies. Regional economic actors now compete actively for such vested interests and have missed the opportunity to create market-friendly regional economies. The government sector should not be a mere rent-seeking economic actor, but should play a role as a facilitator promoting private sector activities in regional economies.