Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004–2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

An Economic Derivation on Trade Coefficients under the Framework of Multi-regional I-O Analysis

The gravity model, entropy model, potential type model and others like these have been adopted to formulate interregional trade coefficients under the framework of Multi-Regional I-O (MRIO) analysis. Since most of these models are based upon analogies in physics or on statistical principles, they do not provide a theoretical explanation from the view of a firm's or individual's rational and deterministic decision making. In this paper, according to the deterministic choice theory, not only is an alternative formulation of the trade coefficients presented, but also a discussion of an appropriate definition for purchasing prices indices. Since this formulation is consistent with the MRIO system, it can be employed as a useful model-building tool in multi-regional models such as the spatial CGE model.

Analysis on International Trade of CLM Countries

Since their accession to AFTA, trade volumes of CLM countries have being grown rapidly while their trade patterns and directions have significantly changed. Recognizing the importance of international trade in CLM economies, this study attempts to analyze the trade patterns of CLM countries based the gravity model. The empirical analysis is conducted to identify the determining factors of each country’s bilateral trade flows and policy implications for promoting their trade.

Do export promotion agencies increase exports?

In this paper, we examine the role of export promotion agencies (EPAs) in promoting exports from Japan and Korea. Looking at two home countries enables us to tackle endogeneity issues by controlling for both country-pair time-invariant characteristics and importing country time-varying characteristics. Our empirical results indicate that the coefficients of the EPA dummy are similar in size to those of the FTA dummy. This implies that establishing an EPA office in a country is equivalent to signing an FTA with that country. In addition, we find that EPA’s effects are larger for manufactured products than non-manufactured products. Finally, the EPA effect is larger for low income trade partners than for high income trade partners.

The effect of EU environmental regulation on international trade : restriction of hazardous substance as a trade barrier

In 2003 the Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) was established in the EU, which limited the trade of machinery, electrical and electronic equipment that have at least one of the substances considered hazardous under RoHS directive. Since countries trading with the EU must comply with this new regulation, it is expected a decrease in value of imports to the EU. In this paper, it is followed the procedures used in Heckman (1979), as well as the extended procedure suggested by Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) to ascertain the effects on the persistence of trade and values of trade.