8 resultados para Forecast demand

em Academic Research Repository at Institute of Developing Economies


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Infrastructure development means for the making of living environment, transport and communications, disaster prevention and national land conservation, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and energy production and supply. Transport infrastructure development in Cambodia involved with (1) road, (2) railway, (3) port, inland-water way and (4) aviation. All model of transport infrastructure have special different kinds of importance. Railway is different from other base important of railways are transport passengers and traffic freight especially transport for heavy goods in huge capacity and in long distance by safer and faster. Transport in Cambodia for traffic freight export import base from Thailand and other via Sisophon and Shihanoukvill port. Traffic is increasing rapidly during nowadays railway condition in adequate of demand required. This is why Railway is selected as the topic of this paper to prevent monopoly of road transport. This paper, does review about infrastructure development plan for Railway in Cambodia as a long term strategy by review and analysis forecast on the previous performance of Royal Railways of Cambodia (RRC) transport traffic involved with condition of infrastructure development of railway in Cambodia. And also review the plan of development RRC but just only detail a plan of rehabilitation that is immediately needed. Suggest some recommendation at the last part. As Cambodia is a member country of ASEAN and also Mekong sub-region. For make sure that transport networks work effectively with a progress of economic integration, we make clear what is important for infrastructure development of railway in Cambodia from the standpoint of the development plan of Mekong sub-region. This paper is organized by 4 sections. Section 1 review about Infrastructure Development of Railway in Cambodia (IDRC) Historical Background, Follow by Section 2 will review the Current Situation of IDRC and some analysis of transport performance from previous years, Then Section 3 review of the focusing on traffic transport of RRC in the future, Section 4 review Infrastructure Development of Railway in Cambodia Future plans in long term; at last conclusion and recommendation. In section 1 does review history background of RRC from the rail first begun. But why is needed to review? Because of history background is involved infrastructure development of RRC in present time. History background made big gaps constraint and obstacle for socioeconomic development and poverty reduction, also left Cambodia with tragedy and left developed behind. After that remain infrastructure development needs huge fund and long time for restoration, reconstruction, rehabilitation and development into new technology as most of world practice.

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This paper empirically analyzes India’s money demand function during the period of 1980 to 2007 using monthly data and the period of 1976 to 2007 using annual data. Cointegration test results indicated that when money supply is represented by M1 and M2, a cointegrating vector is detected among real money balances, interest rates, and output. In contrast, it was found that when money supply is represented by M3, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship in the money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using dynamic OLS, the sign onditions of the coefficients of output and interest rates were found to be consistent with theoretical rationale, and statistical significance was confirmed when money supply was represented by either M1 or M2. Consequently, though India’s central bank presently uses M3 as an indicator of future price movements, it is thought appropriate to focus on M1 or M2, rather than M3, in managing monetary policy.

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This paper examines the degree to which supply and demand shift across skill groups contributed to the earnings inequality increase in urban China from 1988 to 2002. Product demand shift contributed to an equalizing of earnings distribution in urban China from 1988 to 1995 by increasing the relative product for the low educated. However, it contributed to enlarging inequality from 1995 to 2002 by increasing the relative demand for the highly educated. Relative demand was continuously higher for workers in the coastal region and contributed to a raising of interregional inequality. Supply shift contributed essentially nothing or contributed only slightly to a reduction in inequality. Remaining factors, the largest disequalizer, may contain skill-biased technological and institutional changes, and unobserved supply shift effects due to increasing numbers of migrant workers.

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This study presents a model of economic growth based on saturating demand, where the demand for a good has a certain maximum amount. In this model, the economy grows not only by the improvement in production efficiency in each sector, but also by the migration of production factors (labor in this model) from demand-saturated sectors to the non-saturated sector. It is assumed that the production of a brand-new good will begin after all the existing goods are demand-saturated. Hence, there are cycles where the production of a new good emerges followed by the demand saturation of that good. The model then predicts that should the growth rate be stable and positive in the long run, the above-mentioned cycle must become shorter over time. If the length of cycles is constant over time, the growth rate eventually approaches zero because the number of goods produced grows.

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International production fragmentation has been a global trend for decades, becoming especially important in Asia where the manufacturing process is fragmented into stages and dispersed around the region. This paper examines the effects of input and output tariff reductions on labor demand elasticities at the firm level. For this purpose, we consider a simple heterogenous firm model in which firms are allowed to export their products and to use imported intermediate inputs. The model predicts that only productive firms can use imported intermediate inputs (outsourcing) and tend to have larger constant-output labor demand elasticities. Input tariff reductions would lower the factor shares of labor for these productive firms and raise conditional labor demand elasticities further. We test these empirical predictions, constructing Chinese firm-level panel data over the 2000--2006 period. Controlling for potential tariff endogeneity by instruments, our empirical studies generally support these predictions.

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Microinsurance is widely considered an important tool for sustainable poverty reduction, especially in the face of increasing climate risk. Although index-based microinsurance, which should be free from the classical incentive problems, has attracted considerable attention, uptake rates have generally been weak in low-income rural communities. We explore the purchase patterns of index-based livestock insurance in southern Ethiopia, focusing in particular on the role of accurate product comprehension and price, including the prospective impact of temporary discount coupons on subsequent period demand due to price anchoring effects. We find that randomly distributed learning kits contribute to improving subjects' knowledge of the products; however, we do not find strong evidence that the improved knowledge per se induces greater uptake. We also find that reduced price due to randomly distributed discount coupons has an immediate, positive impact on uptake, without dampening subsequent period demand due to reference-dependence associated with price anchoring effects.

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This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth.

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Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.