The Experience of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) : Political Parties in Kenya from 1991 to 2007

This paper first examines splits and mergers among Kenya’s political parties (and inner-party factions) from the restoration of a multi-party system in 1991 until 2007, before the turbulent 10th general elections were conducted. It then considers what functions “political parties” have in Kenya with special reference to the period since 2002, the year in which President Moi announced his intention to retire. A look back at NARC’s five years of rule reveals that, although it succeeded in changing the government, NARC, as a “political party,” remained throughout an organization without any real substance. The paper looks at (1) NARC’s de facto split after its overwhelming win in the ninth general election, (2) malfunctions of the anti-defection laws that were introduced in the 1960s, and (3) Kenya’s election rules that require candidates to be nominated by registered political parties in general elections. The paper proceeds to argue that as a result of the operation of these three elements, Kenya’s political parties, and especially the victorious coalition sides, tend to end up being nothing more than temporary vehicles for political elites angling for post-election posts.

Kenya's 2007 election crisis

On 27 December 2007, the Republic of Kenya held its tenth general election since independence. The ballot-related proceedings went as planned up to and including the vote count, providing grounds for optimism for a largely peaceful transfer of power. However, after the official declaration by the Electoral Commission of Kenya late in the afternoon of 30 December that the presidential election had been won by the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (from Central Province and a Kikuyu), Kenya entered into a period of deep crisis. How might we best understand this great turbulence, which was unprecedented in post-independence Kenya? Perhaps the answer lies in the sudden defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga from Nyanza Province and a Luo, who had been widely expected to win. With the post-election upheaval as the context, and looking at the situation from the standpoint of political history, this paper will offer an analysis of trends in Kenya's politics since 2002.

The gap between recognition and the 'compensation business' : the claim against Britain for compensation by Kenya's former Mau Mau fighters

During the first Kibaki administration (2002-2007), a movement by the former Mau Mau fighters demanded recognition for the role that they had played in the achievement of independence. They began to demand, also, monetary compensation for past injustices. Why had it taken over 40 years (from independence in 1963) for the former Mau Mau fighters to initiate this movement? What can be observed as the outcome of their movement? To answer these questions, three different historical currents need to be taken into account. These were, respectively, changing trends in the government of Kenya, progress in historical research into the actual circumstances of colonial control, and a realization, based on mounting experience, that launching a legal action against Britain could turn out to be a lucrative initiative. This paper concludes that, regardless of the actual purpose of the legal case, neither of their objectives was certain to be achieved. Two inescapable realities remain: the doubts cast on the reputation of the government by its decision to lift the Mau Mau‟s outlaw status – a decision that was widely seen as a latter-day example of the „Kikuyu favouritism‟ policy followed by the first Kibaki administration – and the popular interpretation of the involvement of Leigh Day, well known in Kenya ever since the unexploded bombs case for its success in obtaining substantial compensation payments, as a vehicle for squeezing large amounts of money from the British government for the benefit of the Kikuyu people.

Kenya after the 2007 "post-election violence" : constitutional reform and the National Accord and Reconciliation Act

Immediately after the announcement of the re-election of President Kibaki on the evening of 30 December 2007, Kenya was thrust into the worst civil unrest experienced by the country since independence – a development that became known as the "Post-Election Violence" (PEV). However, after a subsequent process of reconciliation, the PEV came to an end within a relatively short period. The present-day politics of Kenya are being conducted within the framework of a provisional Constitution that took shape through peaceful mediation. How did Kenya manage to put a lid on a period of turmoil that placed the country in unprecedented danger? This paper traces the sequence of events that led to mediation, explains the emergency measures that were needed to maintain law and order, and indicates the remaining problems that still need to be solved.

Has Low Productivity Constrained Competitiveness of African Firms? : Comparison of the Firm Performances with Asian Firms

It has been argued that poor productive performance is one of critical sources of stagnation of the African manufacturing sector, but firm-level empirical supports are limited. Using the inter-regional firm data of the garment industry, technical efficiency and its contribution to competitiveness measured as unit costs were compared between Kenyan and Bangladeshi firms. Our estimates indicated that there is no significant gap in the average technical efficiency of the two industries despite conservative estimation, although unit costs greatly differ between the two industries. Higher unit cost in Kenyan firms mainly stems from high labour cost, while impact of inefficiency is quite small. Productivity accounts little for the stagnation of garment industry in several African countries.

Clothing Export from sub-Saharan Africa : Impact on Poverty and Potential for Growth

Increases in clothing exports after 2000 signaled the first incidence of large-scale manufacturing exports from sub-Saharan Africa. Using firm-level information, this paper explores the potential of clothing exports for poverty reduction and further growth as seen in other low income countries. It shows that the garment exporting industries in Kenya and Madagascar have contributed poverty reduction in the short term by providing mass employment for female and less educated workers with wages beyond the poverty line. However, the long-term impact is not certain. High production costs and limited development of local firms weaken potential for further growth in the competitive world market. Upgrading of the market and improvement of efficiency are required to remain competitive for African industries, and governmental support for local participation are needed to facilitate technology transfer.

FDI and Export Participation of Local Firms in Africa: The Case of the Kenyan Garment Industry

FDI in the garment sector has been the single case of large-scale manufacturing investment in African low-income countries since the 1990s. While FDI has triggered the development of local industries in many developing countries, it has not yet been realized in Africa. This paper describes the spillover process in the Kenyan garment industry and investigates the background of local firms' behavior through firm interviews and simulation of expected profits in export market. It shows that credit constraint, rather than absorptive capacity, is a primary source of inactive participation in export opportunity. Only firms which afford additional production facilities without sacrificing stable domestic supply may be motivated to start exporting. However, in comparison with successful Asian exporters, those firms were not as motivated as Asian firms due to the large gap in expected profits.

Slow and steady wins the race : how the garment industry leads industrialization in low-income countries

This paper investigates how the garment industry escapes this vicious cycle and argues for the validity of labor-intensive industry as a starting point for full-fledged industrialization, even though it might at first seem to be a digression from the path to an innovation-led economy. By examining original firm-level data on garment-producing firms collected in 2002 and 2008 in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya and Madagascar, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) low wages, though still sufficient for poverty reduction, are the main source of competitiveness in low-income countries; (2) after the successful initiation of industrialization causes wages to begin to rise, there is still a possibility for productivity enhancement; and (3) skill bias in technological progress is not yet a major factor, implying that the garment industry is still a labor-intensive industry. In sum, labor-intensive industry should not be discounted as a part of the development strategy of low-income countries.

ケニアにおけるテロ関連暴力とその影響 -- 2014年6月のコースト・ンペケトニ事件を中心に

2011年10月のケニア国軍による南部ソマリアへの越境攻撃開始後、ケニアではアッシャバーブの報復攻撃とみられるテロが多発している。そのケニアで、2014年6月、ソマリア国境に近いンペケトニと呼ばれる一帯において大規模な住民襲撃事件が発生した。アッシャバーブがすぐに犯行声明を出したものの、ケニアのケニヤッタ大統領はアッシャバーブの犯行を否定し、「特定コミュニティを標的にしたエスニック・バイオレンス」だとの見解を表明した。ンペケトニ事件は、「悪化するテロ対ケニア政府による治安強化」というこれまでの図式に、いかなる波紋を投じたものだったのだろうか。本稿では、このンペケトニ事件を整理し、ケニア政府側の対応を追いながら、ンペケトニ周辺の土地問題と民族的分布との関係、与野党対立の現状、そしてケニアのインド洋沿岸を舞台に今も続く分離主義運動を中心に事件の背景を探り、今後の影響を考察する。

牧畜社会の食料安全保障における地域セーフティネットの意義 -- ケニア北部レンディーレ社会の事例から

アフリカの乾燥・半乾燥地域では近年、干ばつや集中豪雨といった自然災害の発生頻度が高くなっている。そのため、30年以上にわたって食料援助に頼ってきた干ばつ対策の限界が指摘され、この地域に暮らす牧畜民の食料安全保障の確立が重要課題となった。本稿は、北ケニアのレンディーレ社会における食料確保をめぐる地域セーフティネットの分析をとおして牧畜社会の食料安全保障を考察した。その結果、牧畜民は唯一の生計維持手段である家畜飼養を高い移動性をもつ放牧キャンプで行なう一方、町の商人との信頼関係にもとづくつけ買いで農産物を確保し、さらに集落における相互扶助を重視した食料分配によって食料の安定確保を実現していることが明らかになった。自然災害に対応できる食料安全保障を確立するためには、このような地域セーフティネットに災害の予防・対応能力をもたせ、地域全体の食料生産・流通・利用を強化していくことが重要である。

誰が「海賊」を処罰するのか? -- 「地域訴追モデル」とケニアにおける海賊裁判

2000年代半ば以降、アデン湾・ソマリア沖で急増した海賊問題は、海賊の取締や処罰を国際社会に問い直す問題である。海賊の不処罰が顕在化する中で新たな対応に迫られた国際社会は、様々な選択肢の中で拿捕国が拘束した海賊被疑者をソマリア近隣諸国へ引渡し、第三国が普遍的管轄権のもとで訴追・処罰する「地域訴追モデル」を次善策とみなした。ケニアはソマリア近隣諸国の中で最も多くのソマリ海賊被疑者を受入れ、処罰してきた。本稿ではケニアの先駆的な海賊裁判の事例から「地域訴追モデル」の問題を明らかにし、海賊および海上犯罪を処罰するためにどのような取り組みが必要であるか検討する。