Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

State-business relations in the smaller gulf monarchies -- the role of business actors in the decision-making process

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).

The stakes of politics and electoral administration : a comparative study of Southeast Asian democracies

Elections play a crucial role in political stability in post-democratization, and electoral administrations are the key to the electoral process. However, not all newly democratized countries have established reliable electoral administration. New democracies in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, have independent election commissions which have different characteristics, especially in terms of neutrality. Based on three cases, this paper claims that the stakes of politics are the major determinant of the variations in neutrality. The high stakes of politics in Thailand brought about the partisan election commission, while the low stakes in Indonesia made the electoral system relatively neutral. Like Thailand, the high stakes of politics in the Philippines also cause political intervention in the electoral administration.

An Economic Derivation on Trade Coefficients under the Framework of Multi-regional I-O Analysis

The gravity model, entropy model, potential type model and others like these have been adopted to formulate interregional trade coefficients under the framework of Multi-Regional I-O (MRIO) analysis. Since most of these models are based upon analogies in physics or on statistical principles, they do not provide a theoretical explanation from the view of a firm's or individual's rational and deterministic decision making. In this paper, according to the deterministic choice theory, not only is an alternative formulation of the trade coefficients presented, but also a discussion of an appropriate definition for purchasing prices indices. Since this formulation is consistent with the MRIO system, it can be employed as a useful model-building tool in multi-regional models such as the spatial CGE model.

Theoretical Models Based on a Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy

This article examined the issue of whether or not the currency exchange rate, country risk, and cooperate tax rate affect decisions of multinational firms to invest in industrial clusters. First, if the exchange rate between a multinational company in an industry of diminishing returns to scale and a developing country is appreciated, then production in the developing country should increase. Second, if the investment period becomes longer, the currency exchange rate of a multinational company's country should be revalued more in order for it to further invest in the developing country. Third, if the investment period becomes longer, the developing country's risk should become less. Fourth, compensation for the developing country's high risk can be made by lowering its corporate tax rate.

Frontiers of the New Economic Geography

This paper presents an overview of recent development in the new economic geography (NEG), and discusses possible directions of its future development. Since there already exist several surveys on this topic, we focus on the selected features of the NEG which are important yet have attracted insufficient attention, and also on the recent refinements and extensions of the framework.

Transport Development and the Evolution of Economic Geography

In this paper, based on the recent advances in the new economic geography (e.g., Fujita, Krugman and Venables [12]), we analyze impacts of transport costs on the spatial patterns of economic agglomeration. We first identify prototypes from the existing models, and explain the mechanism of how transport costs influence the balance between economic forces of agglomeration and dispersion. We then investigate the transformation of the agglomeration/dispersion patterns given gradually decreasing transport costs for different goods.

Input-Output Based Economic Impact Evaluation System for Small City Development: A Case Study on Saemangeum's Flux City Design

The paper aims to develop a quasi-dynamic interregional input-output model for evaluating the macro-economic impacts of small city development. The features of the model are summarized as follows: (1) the consumption expenditure of households is regarded as an endogenous variable, (2) the technological change is determined by the change of industrial Location Quotient caused by firm's investment activities. (3) a strong feedback function between the city design and the economic analysis is provided. For checking the performance of the model, Saemangeum's Flux City Design Plan is used as the simulation target in our paper.

Production Networks and Spatial Economic Interdependence: An International Input-Output Analysis of the Asia-Pacific Region

The Asia-Pacific Region has enjoyed remarkable economic growth in the last three decades. This rapid economic growth can be partially attributed to the global spread of production networks, which has brought about major changes in spatial interdependence among economies within the region. By applying an Input-Output based spatial decomposition technique to the Asian International Input-Output Tables for 1985 and 2000, this paper not only analyzes the intrinsic mechanism of spatial economic interdependence, but also shows how value added, employment and CO2 emissions induced are distributed within the international production networks.

Shock Transmission Mechanism of the Economic Crisis in East Asia : An Application of International Input-Output Analysis

This paper investigates the impacts of the 2008 economic crisis on industries in East Asia. By using the updated Asian international input-output table for 2008, the paper attempts to identify the transmission mechanism and the magnitude of impact of the crisis on industries in East Asia. The analyses reveal that the crisis significantly affected industrial output of the nine East Asian countries. In particular, the countries which are deeply involved in production networks were affected most seriously. Moreover, the analyses show that the impact was transmitted to East Asian industries considerably through the “triangular trade”, in which China imports parts and components from neighboring East Asian countries and then exports final products to the U.S. and EU markets.

Chapter 4 The Challenges in Developing Realistic NEG Simulation Models for East Asia

This chapter attempts to identify some important issues in developing realistic simulation models based on new economic geography, and it suggests a direction for solving the difficulties. Specifically, adopting the IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) as an example, we discuss some problems in developing a realistic simulation model for East Asia. The first and largest problem in this region is the lack of reliable economic datasets at the sub-national level, and this issue needs to be resolved in the long term. However, to deal with the existing situation in the short term, we utilize some techniques to produce more realistic and reliable simulation models. One key compromise is to use a 'topology' representation of geography, rather than a 'mesh' or 'grid' representation or simple 'straight lines' connecting each city which are used in many other models. In addition to this, a modal choice model that takes into consideration both money and time costs seems to work well.

Behavioral characteristics of applied general equilibrium models with an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module

This paper explore how simulation results change with different choice of trade specification, and the strength of preference for traded variety by economic agent differs, utilizing two types of three-region, three-sector AGE model that includes the Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012). Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) the Melitz-type specification does not always enhance effectiveness of a certain policy change more than the one obtained with the Krugman-type, especially when economic agents' preference for traded variety is not so strong; (2) there are likely to be points where the volumes of effects obtained with the Melitz-type exceed the ones with the Krugman-type; and (3) the preference of the producers, those who are in the sectors that exhibit increasing returns to scale, for traded variety might be the engine of explosive effects as suggested by Fujita, et al. (2000).