Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

Do Foreign Currency Deposits Promote or Deter Financial Development in Low-Income Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Foreign currency deposits (FCD) are prevalent in many low-income developing countries, but their impact on bank lending has rarely been examined. An examination of cross-country data indicates that a higher proportion of FCD in total deposits is associated with growth in private credit only in inflationary circumstances (over 24 percent of the annual inflation rate). FCD can lead to a decline in private credit below this threshold level of inflation. Given that FCD exhibit persistence, deregulating them in low-income countries may do more harm than good on financial development in the long term, notably after successful containment of inflation.