Toward an inclusive and a little bit ethical world trading system : listening to the voices of the people in LDCs

Many specialists in international trade have started saying that the era of a mega FTA is approaching. If the three poles of the global economy, namely East Asia, EU and the United States, form mega FTAs, most of the volume of global trade will be covered. That may be fine, but there will be many countries left out of the mega FTA, most of which will be the least developed countries (LDCs). Since the inception of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations in 2001, the WTO and its member countries have tried to include LDCs in the world trading system through various means, including DFQF and AfT. Although these means have some positive impact on the economic development of LDCs, most of the LDCs will never feel comfortable with the current world trading system. To overcome the stalemate in the DDA and to create an inclusive world trading system, we need more commitment from both LDCs and non-LDCs. To surmount the prolonged stalemate in the DDA, we should understand how ordinary people in LDCs feel and think about the current world trading system. Those voices have seldom been listened to, even by the decision makers of their own countries. So as to understand the situation of the people in LDCs, IDE-JETRO carried out several research projects using macro, meso and micro approaches. For the micro level, we collected and analyzed statements from ordinary people concerning their opinions about the world trading system. The interviewees are ordinary people such as street vendors, farmers and factory workers. We asked about where they buy and sell daily necessities, their perception of imported goods, export promotion and free trade at large, etc. These ‘voices of the people’ surveys were conducted in Madagascar and Cambodia during 2013. Based on this research, and especially the findings from the ‘voices of the people’ surveys, we propose a ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’ strategy to conclude DDA negotiations and develop a more inclusive and a little bit more ethical world trading system. Our proposal may be summarized in the following three points. (1) Aid for Trade (AfT) ver. 2 Currently AfT is mainly focused on coordinating several aid projects related to LDCs’ capacity building. However, this is inadequate; for the proposed ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’, a super AfT is needed. The WTO, other development agencies and LDC governments will not only coordinate but also plan together aid projects for trade capacity building. AfT ver. 2 includes infrastructure projects either gran aid, ODA loans and private investment. This is in accordance with the post-MDGs argument which emphasizes the role of the private sector. (2) Ethical Attitude Reciprocity is a principle of multilateral agreement, and it has been a core promise since GATT. However, for designing an inclusive system, special and differential treatment (S&D) is still needed for disadvantaged members. To compromise full reciprocity and less than full reciprocity, an ethical attitude on the part of every member is needed in which every member refrains from insisting on the full rights and demands of its own country. As used herein, the term ‘ethical’ implies more consideration for LDCs, and it is almost identical to S&D but with a more positive attitude from developed countries (super S&D). (3) Collect Voices of the People In order to grasp the real situation of the people, the voices of the people on free trade will continue to be collected in other LDCs, and the findings and leanings will be fed back to the WTO negotiation space.

Transformation of the Financial Sector in Indonesia

Introduction : The source and deployment of finance are central issues in economic development. Since 1966, when the Soeharto Administration was inaugurated, Indonesian economic development has relied on funds in the form of aid from international organizations and foreign countries. After the 1990s, a further abundant inflow of capital sustained a rapid economic development. Foreign funding was the basis of Indonesian economic growth. This paper will describe the mechanism for allocating funds in the Indonesian economy. It will identify the problems this mechanism generated in the Indonesian experience, and it will attempt to explain why there was a collapse of the financial system in the wake of the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997. History of the Indonesian Financial system The year 1966 saw the emergence of commercial banks in Indonesia. It can be said that before 1966 a financial system hardly existed, a fact commonly attributed to economic disruptions like the consecutive runs of fiscal deficit and hyperinflation under the Soekarno Administration. After 1996, with the inauguration of Soeharto, a regulatory system of financial legislation, e.g. central banking law and banking regulation, was introduced and implemented, and the banking sector that is the basis of the current financial system in Indonesia was built up. 　　　The Indonesian financial structure was significantly altered at the first financial reform of 1983. Between 1966 and 1982, the banking sector consisted of Bank Indonesia (the Central Bank) and the state-owned banks. There was also a system for distributing the abundant public revenue derived from the soaring oil price of the 1970s. The public finance distribution function, incorporated in Indonesian financial system, changed after the successive financial reforms of 1983 and 1988, when there was a move away from the monopoly-market style dominated by state-owned banks (which was a system of public finance distribution that operated at the discretion of the government) towards a modern market mechanism. The five phases of development The Indonesian financial system developed in five phases between 1966 and the present time. The first period (1966-72) was its formative period, the second (1973-82) its policy based finance period under soaring oil prices, the third (1983-91) its financial-reform period, the fourth (1992-97) its period of expansion, and the fifth (1998-) its period of financial restructuring. The first section of this paper summarizes the financial policies operative during each of the periods identified above. In the second section changes to the financial sector in response to policies are examined, and an analysis of these changes shows that an important development of the financial sector occurred during the financial reform period. In the third section the focus of analysis shifts from the general financial sector to particular commercial banks’ performances. In the third section changes in commercial banks’ lending and fund-raising behaviour after the 1990s are analysed by comparing several banking groups in terms of their ownership and foundation time. The last section summarizes the foregoing analyses and examines the problems that remain in the Indonesian financial sector, which is still undergoing restructuring.

Post-decentralization regional economies and actors -- putting the capacity of Local governments to the test

Decentralization in Indonesia was introduced institutionally in 2001, with a democratization drive promoted by international donors and by the intention of the new government to clear away the centralistic image of Soeharto. Decentralization has had some effects on regional economies and on local government administration. Compared to the period before decentralization, the share of gross regional domestic product and local government finance has increased in Java, though investment and bank borrowing have expanded to the outer islands. In qualitative aspects, decentralization has transferred not only administrative authority but also many new vested interests from the center to regions. Local governments have become more extensive economic actors in regional economies. Regional economic actors now compete actively for such vested interests and have missed the opportunity to create market-friendly regional economies. The government sector should not be a mere rent-seeking economic actor, but should play a role as a facilitator promoting private sector activities in regional economies.

Transformation of the Rice Marketing System and Myanmar's Transition to a Market Economy

Creating a rice marketing system has been one of the central policy issues in Myanmar's move to a market economy since the end of the 1980s. Two liberalizations of rice marketing were implemented in 1987 and 2003. This paper examines the essential aspects of the liberalizations and the subsequent transformation of Myanmar's rice marketing sector. It attempts to bring into clearer focus the rationale of the government's rice marketing reforms which is to maintain a stable supply of rice at a low price to consumers. Under this rationale, however, the state rice marketing sector continued to lose efficiency while the private sector was allowed to develop on condition that it did not jeopardize the rationale of stable supply at low price. The paper concludes that the prospect for the future development of the private rice marketing sector is dim since a change in the rice market's rationale is unlikely. Private rice exporting is unlikely to be permitted, while the domestic market is approaching the saturation point. Thus, there is little momentum for the private rice sector to undertake any substantial expansion of investment.

Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of Government Bonds Market on Private Sector Investment (Japanese Case Study)

This paper reviews the relationship between public sector investment and private sector investment through government expenditures financed by government bonds in the Japanese economy. This study hypothesizes that deficit financing by bond issues does not crowd out private sector investment, and this finance method may crowd in. Thus the government increases bond issues and sells them in the domestic and international financial markets. This method does not affect interest rates because they are insensitive to government expenditures and they depend on interest rates levels in the international financial market more than in the domestic financial market because of globalization and integration among financial markets.

Trade, Foreign Investment and Myanmar's Economic Development during the Transition to an Open Economy

Throughout the 1990s and up to 2005, the adoption of an open-door policy substantially increased the volume of Myanmar's external trade. Imports grew more rapidly than exports in the 1990s owing to the release of pent-up consumer demand during the transition to a market economy. Accordingly, trade deficits expanded. Confronted by a shortage of foreign currency, the government after the late 1990s resorted to rigid controls over the private sector's trade activities. Despite this tightening of policy, Myanmar's external sector has improved since 2000 largely because of the emergence of new export commodities, namely garments and natural gas. Foreign direct investments in Myanmar significantly contributed to the exploration and development of new gas fields. As trade volume grew, Myanmar strengthened its trade relations with neighboring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Although the development of external trade and foreign investment inflows exerted a considerable impact on the Myanmar economy, the external sector has not yet begun to function as a vigorous engine for broad-based and sustainable development.

Is the Vietnamese garment industry at a turning point? : upgrading from the export to the domestic market

Vietnam’s garment industry has been loosely characterized by the duality based on market orientation: export and domestic. Export-oriented garment suppliers were typically SOEs and foreign invested firms, while those producing for the domestic market have been mostly small, private companies. With a booming economy, other industrial sectors have emerged, and the garment industry is no longer the sector most favored by workers. Wage rates have been increasing, and a supplier’s ability to cope with this through successful upgrading has been the key determinant of whether it can further grow and flourish. Those who fail to cope are finding themselves in an increasingly difficult position. This paper looks at both the export- and domestic-oriented garment suppliers, and attempts to highlight how the industry can further develop by examining the bottlenecks that vary depending on the type of supplier. It suggests that in the long run, upgrading and value addition in the domestic market will be the key strategy.

Diverging Development Paths of the Electronics Industry in Korea and Taiwan

This paper examines the process and mechanism of economic development in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan through a comparative analysis of the electronics industry in each country. The paper will show that in its initial stage of development, the electronics industry in both economies had the same type of dual structure: a domestic demand sector based on the protected domestic market, and an export sector intended to capitalize on low-wage labor for the international market. However, this dual structure in the two economies faded away after the mid-1970s as their respective indigenous export-oriented enterprises began to develop. But the primary industrial players in each economy were very different. In Korea they were comprehensive electronics manufacturers affiliated with chaebols, and in Taiwan they were small and medium-size enterprises. Differences in the two economies' development mechanisms have brought about this divergence in development paths. In Korea this mechanism has been characterized by the government's positive role and the chaebol's readiness to react to the government's leadership. In Taiwan the development mechanism has been based on the private sector independent from the government. As an extension of such diverged development paths, ICs and personal computers showed spectacular growth in Korea and Taiwan after the 1980s. The development of ICs in Korea was primarily the result of a decisive role played by the chaebol's sizable financial resources, while the competitiveness in personal computers largely reflected the agility and flexibility of Taiwanese small and medium-size enterprises.

Industrial Development and the Innovation System of the Ethanol Sector in Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to analyze innovations and the innovation system and its dynamics in the ethanol sector in the State of Sao Paulo. More specifically, this paper focuses on the development process in the sector, the public policies taken to promote the sector, and the organizations and key players involved in these policies and their responses to unforeseeable changes in economic, social and technological environments. To this end, this paper takes an historical perspective and reviews data on the cultivation of sugar cane, the production of ethanol, and on sugar cane yields as indicators of the innovations achieved in the sector. The geographical distribution of these indicators is also examined. Next, several cases in Piracicaba and Campinas in the State of Sao Paulo are presented; these give us a more concrete idea of the processes involved in innovation and technology transfer. Based on these observations, the ethanol cluster and the innovation system of the State of Sao Paulo are discussed from the viewpoint of the flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy.

Financing Small and Medium Enterprises in Myanmar

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) share the biggest part in Myanmar economy in terms of number, contribution to employment, output, and investment. Myanmar economic growth is thus totally dependent on the development of SMEs in the private sector. Today, the role of SMEs has become more vital in strengthening national competitive advantage and the speedy economic integration into the ASEAN region. However, studies show that SMEs have to deal with a number of constraints that hinder their development potential, such as the shortage in power supply, unavailability of long-term credit from external sources and many others. Among them, the financing problem of SMEs is one of the biggest constraints. Such is deeply rooted in demand and supply issues, macroeconomic fundamentals, and lending infrastructure of the country. The government’s policy towards SMEs could also lead to insufficient support for the SMEs. Thus, focusing on SMEs and private sector development as a viable strategy for industrialization and economic development of the country is a fundamental requirement for SME development. This paper recommends policies for stabilizing macro economic fundamentals, improving lending infrastructures of the country and improving demand- and supply-side conditions from the SMEs financing perspective in order to provide a more accessible financing for SMEs and to contribute in the overall development of SMEs in Myanmar thereby to sharpen national competitive advantage in the age of speedy economic integration.

Financial permeation as a role of microfinance : has microfinance actually been helpful to the poor?

This article is distinct in its application of the logit transformation to the poverty ratio for the purpose of empirically examining whether the financial sector helps improve standards of living for low-income people. We propose the term financial permeation to describe how financial networks expand to spread money among the poor. We measure financial permeation by three indicators related to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and then examine its effect on poverty reduction at the macro level using panel data for 90 developing countries from 1995 to 2008. We find that financial permeation has a statistically significant and robust effect on decreasing the poverty ratio.

Seasonal migration and micro-credit in the lean period : evidence from northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the relationship between access to micro-credit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which is largely ignored in the standard rural-urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross-sectional household survey from the northwest part of Bangladesh, this study quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Among other results, we find that network effects play a significant role in influencing the migration decision, with the presence of kinsmen at the place of destination having considerable impact. Seasonal migration is a natural choice for individual suffering periodic hardship; however the strict weekly loan repayment rules of Micro-credit Institutes can have an adverse effect on this process, reducing the ability of borrowers to react to a shock. Our result suggests that poor individuals prefer the option of not accessing the micro-credit and opt for temporal seasonal migration during the lean period. The results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical micro-credit schemes.

Development strategy in Bihar through revitalizing the agricultural sector : a preliminary analysis

Based mainly on secondary data and partly on primary information obtained through field surveys in selected rural areas in Bihar in 2011, this paper firstly argues the critical importance of agricultural growth for overall economic development, and then reviews the sluggish growth of agriculture in Bihar in the past and examines the major reasons for this. The long-term negligence of agricultural research (especially development and diffusion endeavors for improved rice varieties suitable to the local conditions of Bihar) by the state government and some sort of ‘backwardness’ in tube-well irrigation technology can be pointed out as important constraints. There is, in particular, the ‘paradox’ in Bihar agriculture of why rice and wheat yields have remained so low in spite of the relatively well-developed irrigation by tube-wells. Finally, by showing the process of a rapid increase in autumn and winter rice yields during the 1990s in West Bengal, it is suggested that Bihar farmers and policy-makers should learn from the experience of West Bengal in order to get some hints for the development of the rice sector in Bihar.

The Central Bank and bank credits in the Philippines : a survey on effectiveness of monetary policy and its measures

In the post-Asian crisis period, bank loans to the manufacturing sector have shown a slow recovery in the affected countries, unexceptionally in the Philippines. This paper provides a literacy survey on the effectiveness of the Central Bank’s monetary policy and the responsiveness of the financial market, and discusses on the future works necessary to better understand the monetary policy effectiveness in the Philippines. As the survey shows, most previous works focus on the correlation between the short-term policy rates and during the period of monetary tightening and relatively less interest in quantitative effectiveness. Future tasks would shed lights on (1) the asset side – other than loan outstanding – of banks to analyze their behavior/preference in structuring portfolios, and (2) the quantitative impacts during the monetary easing period.