East Asia's Economic Development cum Trade "Divergence"

This paper addresses some salient features of how some of "successful" East Asian economies have been faring in terms of enhancing their export competitiveness. That export becomes more divergent in terms of its unit price as more technology-enhancing economic activity is undertaken within an economy, is the primary message that this study conveys. This is indeed what Schumpeter had addressed in conjunction with his "creative destruction" thesis. From this perspective, East Asia's export-led industrialization has been attained through a particular policy focus upon high "trade divergence" sectors underpinned by a generally high level of manufacturing flexibility. The experience of Malaysia's development serves as the strong case in point. As an East Asia-wide FTA is expected to facilitate "divergent" export-led industrialization through enhanced knowledge interaction, this dynamic or "divergent" impact that knowledge creation could exert should come to the fore of relevant policy arguments, together with static consideration of trade creation and diversion. A formal statistical test of the "divergence hypothesis" above is called for with a view to building upon this preliminary study.

Estimation Technique of International Input-Output Model by Non-survey Method

The Asian International Input-Output (IO) Table that is compiled by Institute of Developing Economies-JETRO (IDE), was constructed in Isard type form. Thus, it required a lot of time to publish. In order to avoid this time-lag problem and establish a more simple compilation technique, this paper concentrates on verifying the possibility of using the Chenery-Moses type estimation technique. If possible, applying the Chenery-Moses instead of the Isard type would be effective for both impact and linkage analysis (except for some countries such as Malaysia and Singapore and some primary sectors. Using Chenery-Moses estimation method, production of the Asian International IO table can be reduced by two years. And more, this method might have the possibilities to be applied for updating exercise of Asian IO table.

Rules of Origin and Local Content in East Asia

Rules of Origin (RoO) are an integral part of all trade rules. In order to be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) under AFTA and similar arrangements under the ASEAN-China FTA, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to local content. The paper tries to calculate local content as well as cumulative local content in East Asian economies, with use of the Asian International Input-Output Tables; it also investigates factors of change in local content by applying decomposition analysis. The paper finds that the cumulation rule increased local content of the electronics industry more significantly than local content of the automotive industry, and the contribution of the cumulation rule increased in the period 1990-2000, due to rising dependency on neighboring ASEAN countries and China.

Poverty Analysis of Ethiopian Females in the Amhara Region: Utilizing BMI as an Indicator of Poverty

This paper analyzes poverty-affected females in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. As the measurement of poverty, the paper uses body mass index (BMI) because it is one of the effective tools for measuring individual poverty level. The results of the BMI analysis show that the most poverty-affected female group is the female household heads in urban areas. The results, however, should be treated carefully considering the different social and economic structure of urban and rural areas, and the interdependent relationship between these two areas. In rural areas, access to land is the biggest issue affecting the BMI, while in urban areas, the occupation of husbands or partners is more important. These differences by area do not mean that there is no intersection between the urban and rural female groups because the majority of females in urban areas migrated from rural areas to urban areas due to various reasons such as divorce, marriage, and job opportunities.

Transport Sector and Regional Price Differentials: A SCGE Model for Chinese Provinces

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. While regional price differentials play important roles in multi-regional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with survey-based regional I-O and interregional I-O tables for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.

Is Learning by Migrating to a Megalopolis Really Important? Evidence from Thailand

We examine the effects of learning by migrating on the productivity of migrants who move to a "megalopolis" from rural areas using the Thailand Labor Force Survey. The main contribution is to the development a simple framework to test for self-selection on migration decisions and learning by migrating into the urban labor market, focusing on experimental evidence in the observational data. The role of the urban labor market is examined. In conclusion, we find significant evidence for sorting: the self-selection effects test (1) is positive among new entrants from rural areas to the urban labor market; and (2) is negative among new exits that move to rural areas from the urban labor market. Further, estimated effects of learning by migrating into a "megalopolis" have a less significant impact. These results suggest the existence of a natural selection (i.e. survival of the fittest) mechanism in the urban labor market in a developing economy.

Career Crisis? Impacts of Financial Shock on the Entry-Level Labor Market: Evidence from Thailand

We utilize Thailand's the financial crisis in 1997 as a natural experiment which exogenously shifts labor demand. Convincing evidence from the Thailand Labor Force Survey support the hypothesis that both employment opportunities and wages shrunk for new entrants after the crisis. We find that workers who entered before the crisis experienced job losses and wage losses. But these losses were smaller than those of new entrants after the crisis. We also find that new entrants after the crisis experienced a 10% reduction in the overtime wages compared to new entrants before the crisis.

Are Job Networks Localized in a Developing Economy? Search Methods for Displaced Workers in Thailand

Effects of localized personal networks on the choice of search methods are studied in this paper using evidence of displaced workers by establishment closure in Thailand Labor Force Survey, 2001. For the blocks/villages level, there is less significant evidence of local interactions between job-seekers and referrals in developing labor markets. The effects of localized personal networks do not play an important role in the probability of unemployed job-seekers seeking assistance from friends and relatives. Convincing evidence from the data supports the proposition that both self-selection of individual background-like professions and access to large markets determine the choice of job search method.

IT Clusters in India

One of the facilitating factors that enabled the rise of IT industry in India is the evolution of IT clusters. A study of these clusters can provide interesting insights. The rise of the Banglaore IT cluster was due, among other things, to some of the policies the Indian government took three decades or earlier. It would be difficult to talk of "benign neglect" of the government towards this sector. Different factors worked in the case of Hyderabad. A comparison between the IT clusters in India has much to tell the new emerging IT clusters in India as well as those outside of it.

IT Offshoring and India: Some Implications

There has been a large spurt in the offshore outsourcing of Information Technology (IT) recently. India has been a major recipient of such work. There have been loud protests against the "loss" of jobs in the US as work was shifted to India. The large inflow of IT related work has also had major impact on the Indian economy. There are implications on the foreign policy level as well. While the economic implications are well known, we try to see a little of the foreign policy implications in this paper.

Do Foreign Currency Deposits Promote or Deter Financial Development in Low-Income Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Foreign currency deposits (FCD) are prevalent in many low-income developing countries, but their impact on bank lending has rarely been examined. An examination of cross-country data indicates that a higher proportion of FCD in total deposits is associated with growth in private credit only in inflationary circumstances (over 24 percent of the annual inflation rate). FCD can lead to a decline in private credit below this threshold level of inflation. Given that FCD exhibit persistence, deregulating them in low-income countries may do more harm than good on financial development in the long term, notably after successful containment of inflation.

Domestic Market-based Industrial Cluster Development in Modern China

China’s huge domestic market is constantly expanding, and is low-end demand oriented and highly dispersed. The domestic market-based development of China’s industrial cluster, however, is not only a quantitative expansion, but has also been accompanied with remarkable qualitative upgrading. Specialized markets are a microcosm that clearly indicate this paradoxical phenomenon. By analyzing three typical cases of industrial clusters that have specialized markets, this paper will make the case that under modern China’s market conditions, the local public sector is the crucial driving force for upgrading industrial clusters, which organize complicated transactions, promote quality control, and stimulate the division of labor.

Clusters and Innovation: Beijing's Hi-technology Industry Cluster and Guangzhou's Automobile Industry Cluster

This paper proposes a flowchart approach to the automobile industry cluster policy and the hi-technology industry cluster policy to prioritize policy measures. First, in the automobile industry cluster, suppliers of parts and components to anchor firms such as Honda, Nissan and Toyota of Japanese assembly makers in Guangzhou, China, can innovate partly because the suppliers have become independent of their anchor firms in the Japanese Keiretsu system. Second, concerning the hi-technology industry clustering in Beijing, we show that the existence of universities is a precondition for the industrial cluster policy and that the leadership of the Zhongguancun Science Park Management Committee of Beijing Municipality is crucial to the success of the industrial cluster policy. The flowchart for the hi-technology industry is different from the one for the automobile industry cluster.

The Evolution of the "One China" Concept in the Process of Taiwan's Democratization

This paper investigates how Taiwan's "one China" concept evolved during the democratization process that occurred under the leadership of former President Lee Teng-hui. The author argues that there was a crucial evolution of the "one China" concept and that the transformation of the concept resulted from changes in Taiwan's internal political circumstances. The evolution of the concept creates a real possibility that the "status quo" sought by the ROC in the Taiwan Strait both during and after the Cold War might be destroyed. In addition, any further evolution of the "one China" concept will surely make the "status quo" of Taiwan untenable, in that it would induce Taiwan to seek de jure instead of de facto independence, possibly initiating a conflict between the PRC and the ROC. To prevent such a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the international community must persuade the ROC not to go beyond the "status quo" and to stay within the framework of de facto independence. At the same time, both the PRC and the ROC should be urged to maintain an open conduit of communication for productive talks on the reunification of China.

Differences in Technology Transfers to China Among European and Japanese Elevator Companies

This report analyzes technology transfers and education for local engineers within overseas subsidiaries of Japanese and European companies that have advanced into China, and examines differences among them. Based on the assumption that if the quality of trained local engineers is different, the international division of labor is also different, I aim to clarify how they are different.