新興民主主義の不安定 -- 勝利連合の変更と制度からの逸脱

本稿は，新興民主主義の不安定化を，民主化による勝利連合の変更から説明しようとするものである。基本として民主主義体制における政治的不安定は，主要な政治的プレーヤー，具体的には，権力者もしくは権力外主体の２者のいずれかが，民主主義制度から逸脱しようとするインセンティブを持つ状態だと考える。ここで権力外主体の逸脱行為に焦点を当てた場合，不安定化は権威主義体制期に権力を支えた勝利連合が民主化後，勝利連合から外れ，新しい政策傾向に不満を持つことによって発生すると考えられる。権力外主体の不満が，自らの勢力規模との関係である閾値を越えたとき，制度外行動による権力者への挑戦行為を引き起こすのである。ゆえに，政治的不安定化は権力者と権力外主体の利得の差と権力外主体の勢力規模に規定される。本稿では都市と農村の亀裂を例としてこの勝利連合の変更と制度からの逸脱について理論化を試みる。さらに，理論を検証するため，フィリピンの事例を取りあげる。フィリピンでは，民主化後にそれまでの都市セクター偏重が転換され，都市は政権に対して恒常的に不支持の傾向を示してきた。そうしたなか，2001年には，都市エリートを中心として，大統領を排除しようとする憲法制度外行動が発生し，権力者が交代することになった。

Where does Philippine education go? : the "K to 12" program and reform of Philippine basic education

In 2012 the Philippines launched its "K to 12" Program, a comprehensive reform of its basic education. Through this reform, the Philippines is catching up with global standards in secondary education and is attaching a high value to kindergarten. The structure, curricula, and philosophy of the education system are undergoing reform and improvement. The key points of the new policy are "preparation" for higher education, "eligibility" for entering domestic and overseas higher educational institutions, and immediate "employability" on graduating, all leading toward a "holistically developed Filipino". This policy appears admirable and timely, but it faces some pedagogical and socioeconomic problems. The author wants to point out in particular that the policy needs to address gender problems and should be combined with demand-side approaches in order to promote poverty alleviation and human development in the Philippines.

The asset/liability structure of the Philippine banks and non-bank financial institutions in 2000s : a preliminary study for financial access analyses

Based on the consolidated statements data of the universal/commercial banks (UKbank) and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking licenses, this paper presents a keen necessity of obtaining data in detail on both sides (assets and liabilities) of their financial conditions and further analyses. Those would bring more adequate assessments on the Philippine financial system, especially with regard to each financial subsector's financing/lending preferences and behavior. The paper also presents a possibility that the skewed locational and operational distribution exists in the non-UKbank financial subsectors. It suggests there may be a significant deviation from the authorities' (the BSP, SEC and others) intended/anticipated financial system in the banking/non-bank financial institutions' real operations.

The stakes of politics and electoral administration : a comparative study of Southeast Asian democracies

Elections play a crucial role in political stability in post-democratization, and electoral administrations are the key to the electoral process. However, not all newly democratized countries have established reliable electoral administration. New democracies in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, have independent election commissions which have different characteristics, especially in terms of neutrality. Based on three cases, this paper claims that the stakes of politics are the major determinant of the variations in neutrality. The high stakes of politics in Thailand brought about the partisan election commission, while the low stakes in Indonesia made the electoral system relatively neutral. Like Thailand, the high stakes of politics in the Philippines also cause political intervention in the electoral administration.