Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

Changes in source of profits and business strategies? : some evidence from the Philippines' universal banks in the 2000s

In the 2000s, the Philippines' local banking sector have conducted very conservative lending behavior and at the same time, gradually but continuously improved their profitability in terms of ROE (return on equity). A set of analyses on the flow of funds and segment reports (information) of local universal banks, whose loans outstanding to the industrial sector have dominated more than three fourths of the total outstanding, shows that (1) they have actively manage assets overseas, (2) their profitability has come from investment activities in the securities markets, and (3) some universal banks have shifted their resources into the consumer/retail segment. Although further refinement in the dataset is needed for a more detailed analysis, diverse business strategies would be expected among the local universal banks in the near future.