Trade, Foreign Investment and Myanmar's Economic Development during the Transition to an Open Economy

Throughout the 1990s and up to 2005, the adoption of an open-door policy substantially increased the volume of Myanmar's external trade. Imports grew more rapidly than exports in the 1990s owing to the release of pent-up consumer demand during the transition to a market economy. Accordingly, trade deficits expanded. Confronted by a shortage of foreign currency, the government after the late 1990s resorted to rigid controls over the private sector's trade activities. Despite this tightening of policy, Myanmar's external sector has improved since 2000 largely because of the emergence of new export commodities, namely garments and natural gas. Foreign direct investments in Myanmar significantly contributed to the exploration and development of new gas fields. As trade volume grew, Myanmar strengthened its trade relations with neighboring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Although the development of external trade and foreign investment inflows exerted a considerable impact on the Myanmar economy, the external sector has not yet begun to function as a vigorous engine for broad-based and sustainable development.

Border Industry in Myanmar: Turning the Periphery into the Center of Growth

The Myanmar economy has not been deeply integrated into East Asia’s production and distribution networks, despite its location advantages and notably abundant, reasonably well-educated, cheap labor force. Underdeveloped infrastructure, logistics in particular, and an unfavorable business and investment environment hinder it from participating in such networks in East Asia. Service link costs, for connecting production sites in Myanmar and other remote fragmented production blocks or markets, have not fallen sufficiently low to enable firms, including multi-national corporations to reduce total costs, and so the Myanmar economy has failed to attract foreign direct investments. Border industry offers a solution. The Myanmar economy can be connected to the regional and global economy through its borders with neighboring countries, Thailand in particular, which already have logistic hubs such as deep-sea ports, airports and trunk roads. This paper examines the source of competitiveness of border industry by considering an example of the garment industry located in the Myanmar-Thai border area. Based on such analysis, we recognize the prospects of border industry and propose some policy measures to promote this on Myanmar soil.

Exploiting the Modularity of Value Chains: Inter-firm Dynamics of the Taiwanese Notebook PC Industry

This paper explores the inter-firm dynamics that govern the rise of capabilities of latecomer firms operating in global value chains. By extending and modifying the model proposed by Gereffi, Humphrey and Sturgeon [2005], I present a framework in which the rise of supplier capabilities is determined by interactions among the strategies of the firms. Based on a case study of the Taiwanese notebook PC industry, the paper will explore how the interactions among outsourcing strategies by lead firms from the developed countries, the learning strategies of Taiwanese suppliers, and the product strategy of powerful component vendors have driven the explosive growth of the industry after the 1990s. By so doing, the paper attempts to highlight the active roles firms play in determining the speed and direction of the rise in supplier capabilities.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: The Implication for Production Networks in East Asia

This paper is an empirical investigation of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. It finds that intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions because intermediate goods trade in production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of trade. In addition, this negative effect of volatility is mainly induced by the unanticipated volatility and has an even greater impact than that of tariffs.

Border Barriers in Agricultural Trade and the Impact of their Elimination: Evidence from East Asia

Abstract: By means of a GTAP based-CGE model, we investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and non-tariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade towards East Asian FTAs. To do that, we first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely-used method derived from the literature on border effects. Next, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does not succeed in incorporating, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and of NTPBs) on GDP.

Market Access and Intermediate Goods Trade

The role of importer access to the finished goods market in intermediate goods trade is examined by estimating the gravity-like equation derived from the NEG model. Importer access to demand for finished goods is calculated by using the estimates in the gravity equation for finished goods trade, and then intermediate goods trade is regressed on the importer access. Results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are sensitive not only to the magnitude of importer demand for finished goods but also to the demand of neighboring countries. Using results of the regression, the impact of US finished goods market expansion on intermediate goods trade in each country is simulated.

Analysis on International Trade of CLM Countries

Since their accession to AFTA, trade volumes of CLM countries have being grown rapidly while their trade patterns and directions have significantly changed. Recognizing the importance of international trade in CLM economies, this study attempts to analyze the trade patterns of CLM countries based the gravity model. The empirical analysis is conducted to identify the determining factors of each country’s bilateral trade flows and policy implications for promoting their trade.

Trade of Heilongjiang Province (China) with Russia

Local trade between the Far East region of the USSR and the Northeast region of the People’s Republic of China started in 1957, arranged by the public trade organizations in the respective borderlands. Heilongjiang Province of China has been the main actor in trade with the Far East region of the USSR, and more recently, Russia. After 1957, Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East developed rapidly until 1993, except a period of interruption (1967-1982). Thereafter, the Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East underwent a stagnation period (1994-1998), a recovery period (1999-2001), a rapid development period (2002-2007) and a period of change of tendencies and radical decrease (2008-2009). Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East consists of three main forms: general trade, Chinese-style border trade (Bianjing Trade which includes Bianjing Small Trade and trade between private persons (Hushi Trade)) and Travel Trade. The rapid increase of Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East from 2002 to 2007 is mainly attributable to the increase in the export of ordinary consumer goods, especially textile clothing and footwear, and to Bianjing Small Trade.

Myopic or farsighted : bilateral trade agreements among three symmetric countries

We examine network formation via bilateral trade agreement (BTA) among three symmetric countries. Each government decides whether to form a link or not via a BTA depending on the differential of ex-post and ex-ante sum of real wages in the country. We model the governmental decision in two forms, myopic and farsighted and analyze the effects on the BTA network formation. First, we find that both myopic and farsighted games never induce the formation of star networks nor empty networks. Second, the networks resulting from myopic game coincides with those resulting from farsighted games.

The role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in facilitating global production networks

This paper examines the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in facilitating international trade flows connecting production networks. We consider over 250 PTAs with trade flows distinguished into parts and components and final goods for the period 1979-2008. The gravity equation estimates suggest that the concurrent year effects of PTA formation on trade in parts and components are unseen, whereas PTAs have positive and pervasive effects on both types of trade flows 6 and 9 years after the PTA formation.

Chapter 1 Economic Integration and Industry Location: Theories, Empirical Results, and Implications for CLMV

Trade affects the internal location of industry in two ways: it induces firms to specialize and it expands the set of markets that firms serve. If there are industry-specific external economies, firms in related industries will spatially agglomerate (Hanson 1996a). In the context of economic integration, diminished barriers to trade affect industry location particularly in less developed countries. As described below, regional agreements in North America and Europe have caused frontier regions to expand. These regions, which include border regions and port cities, have advantages over internal regions in terms of access to foreign markets. Since trade liberalization induces many firms in developing countries to participate in production networks and to specialize in labor-intensive activities such as assembling and processing of foreign-made components, their inputs as well as final products need to be carried across borders. Therefore, the best industry location, one that minimizes transport costs, is likely to shift to frontier regions. In East Asia, China has developed rapidly since it opened up to international trade. Simultaneously, a large amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been attracted and industry agglomerations have been formed in coastal regions, that is, frontier regions linked to the global market by sea, leaving many internal regions behind. Similarly, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) have joined AFTA and/or the WTO and liberalized international trade since the 1990s. Moreover, transport infrastructures such as the East-West Economic Corridor, the Southern Economic Corridor, and the North-South Economic Corridor have been built and narrowed economic distances in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). As a result, frontier regions are likely to increase their location advantages and lure labor-intensive operations from neighboring countries. It is expected that, as has happened in North America and Europe, economic integration in East Asia will significantly affect internal geography in CLMV. In this study, I first review theories relevant to economic integration and industry location within a country. In particular, emphasis is placed on the new economic geography (NEG). Secondly, empirical results for North America and Europe are surveyed since they have preceded East Asia in regional integration and a substantial number of studies have been conducted on these regions. The final section summarizes and discusses implications for internal geography in CLMV.

Chapter 1 Market Access and Intermediate Goods Trade

This paper examines a distinctive feature of intermediate goods trade which the traditional gravity equation fails to capture, i.e., intermediate goods trade is positively related not only to the importing country's demand for finished goods but also to its neighbors' demand for finished goods. We regress a gravity equation for finished goods trade in the first step. Then, introducing the importing country's access to the total demand for finished goods which is calculated by using the estimates in the first step, we regress our gravity equation for trade in intermediate goods. Our regression results confirm such a feature of intermediate goods trade. Using the results of the regression, we simulate how the rise of US consumers' demand for finished goods affects the total imports and exports of intermediate goods in each country.

Bilateral tariff rates in international trade : finished goods versus intermediate goods

In this paper, we examined back-and-forth international transactions through tariff reduction by estimating modified gravity equations for finished goods and intermediate goods separately. Our main findings are as follows. Exports of finished machinery products are negatively associated with not only the importer's tariff rates on finished machinery products but also the exporter's tariff rates on machinery parts. Similarly, exports of machinery parts are negatively associated with not only the importer's tariff rates on machinery parts but also the exporter's tariff rates on finished machinery products. These results imply that tariff reduction in only one production process in an industry has the potential to drastically change the magnitude of trade in the whole industry.

Trade policies and trade mis-reporting in Myanmar

While the trade statistics of Myanmar show surpluses for 2007 through 2010, the corresponding statistics of trade partner countries indicate deficits. Such discrepancies in mirror trade statistics are analyzed in connection with the ‘export-first and import-second’ policy provisioning import permissions on permission applicants possessing a sufficient amount of the export-tax-deducted export earnings. Under this policy, the recorded imports and exports of the private sector have been maintaining equilibrium, whereas discrepancies in the mirror statistics have fluctuated. This suggests that traders adjusted mis-reporting in accordance with the supply and demand of the export earnings.

What motivates female operators to enter the garment industry in Pakistan in the post-MFA period?

Pakistan's knitwear exports had been struggling since the quota phase-out until 2009. A particular feature of Pakistan's garment industry is that hiring more male sewing operators at piece rates. Recently, a few surviving knitwear factories have adopted a strategy of shifting from male piece-rate operators to salaried female operators. In Pakistan, female participation in general workforce is very limited and hiring salaried female operators requires management effort and expertise. However, even in the factories with such management skills, household factors prevent females from working outside because Pakistani culture disrespects women working in factories. Our survey reveals that financial motives compel female household members to work outside their homes and that female operators contribute substantially to their households' finances.