49 resultados para Input-Output Model


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Despite the fact that input–output (IO) tables form a central part of the System of National Accounts, each individual country's national IO table exhibits more or less different features and characteristics, reflecting the country's socioeconomic idiosyncrasies. Consequently, the compilers of a multi-regional input–output table (MRIOT) are advised to thoroughly examine the conceptual as well as methodological differences among countries in the estimation of basic statistics for national IO tables and, if necessary, to carry out pre-adjustment of these tables into a common format prior to the MRIOT compilation. The objective of this study is to provide a practical guide for harmonizing national IO tables to construct a consistent MRIOT, referring to the adjustment practices used by the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) in compiling the Asian International Input–Output Table.

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In recent years, the analysis of trade in value added has been explored by many researchers. Although they have made important contributions by developing GVC-related indices and proposing techniques for decomposing trade data, they have not yet explored the method of value chain mapping—a core element of conventional value chain analysis. This paper introduces a method of value chain mapping that uses international input-output data and reveals both upstream and downstream transactions of goods and services induced by production activities of a specific commodity or industry. This method is subsequently applied to the agricultural value chain of three Greater Mekong Sub-region countries (i.e., Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia). The results show that the agricultural value chain has been increasingly internationalized, although there is still room for obtaining benefits from GVC participation, especially in a country such as Cambodia.

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The concept and logic of the "smile curve" in the context of global value chains has been widely used and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the country and industry levels by using real data. This paper proposes an idea, based on an inter-country input-output model, to consistently measure both the strength and length of linkages between producers and consumers along global value chains. This idea allows for better identification and mapping of smile curves for countries and industries according to their positions and degrees of participation in a given conceptual value chain. Using the 1995-2011 World Input-Output Tables, several conceptual value chains are investigated, including exports of electrical and optical equipment from China and Mexico and exports of automobiles from Japan and Germany. The identified smile curves provide a very intuitive and visual image, which can significantly improve our understanding of the roles played by different countries and industries in global value chains. Further, the smile curves help identify the benefits gained by these countries and industries through their participation in global trade.

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With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. While regional price differentials play important roles in multi-regional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with survey-based regional I-O and interregional I-O tables for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.

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The Armington Assumption in the context of multi-regional CGE models is commonly interpreted as follows: Same commodities with different origins are imperfect substitutes for each other. In this paper, a static spatial CGE model that is compatible with this assumption and explicitly considers the transport sector and regional price differentials is formulated. Trade coefficients, which are derived endogenously from the optimization behaviors of firms and households, are shown to take the form of a potential function. To investigate how the elasticity of substitutions affects equilibrium solutions, a simpler version of the model that incorporates three regions and two sectors (besides the transport sector) is introduced. Results indicate: (1) if commodities produced in different regions are perfect substitutes, regional economies will be either autarkic or completely symmetric and (2) if they are imperfect substitutes, the impact of elasticity on the price equilibrium system as well as trade coefficients will be nonlinear and sometimes very sensitive.

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This paper examines the repercussion effects on the production cost of industries in Asian countries when some countries eliminate tariffs and import commodity taxes on all imports. This kind of analysis is related in some sense to that measuring the effects of FTAs on economies, and thus may be considered as an analysis of “pseudo FTAs.” Examining a number of combinations of “pseudo FTAs” between China, Japan, and ASEAN, it is found that the case of China plus Japan plus ASEAN is the most effective “pseudo FTA” of the combinations in terms of production cost reduction. The method is a form of price model based on the Asian International Input-Output Table. Almost no studies on price models related to multilateral I/O tables have been implemented thus far.

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This paper presents a framework for an SCGE model that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function,and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index of varietal goods in the context of new economic geography (NEG). The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two non-transport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously to facilitate study of their impacts, commodity prices are also determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium. The model closure is sensitive to formulation consistency so that homogeneity of the system would be lost by use of an alternative form of trade coefficients.

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Based on analyses of actual data, we reveal that many Asian developing economies own economic structural features of "non-mono-cultural economy" and the "large primary good sector", which have not been discussed in developing economies RBC literature. We also examine the input-output tables to develop a model reflecting actual developing economies' structures. Referring to the analyses, we construct RBC models of ASEAN countries. Based on the model, we find that approximately half of GDP volatility is attributable to domestic productivity shocks, and the remaining half is attributable to price shocks.

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The gravity model, entropy model, potential type model and others like these have been adopted to formulate interregional trade coefficients under the framework of Multi-Regional I-O (MRIO) analysis. Since most of these models are based upon analogies in physics or on statistical principles, they do not provide a theoretical explanation from the view of a firm's or individual's rational and deterministic decision making. In this paper, according to the deterministic choice theory, not only is an alternative formulation of the trade coefficients presented, but also a discussion of an appropriate definition for purchasing prices indices. Since this formulation is consistent with the MRIO system, it can be employed as a useful model-building tool in multi-regional models such as the spatial CGE model.

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This paper estimates the elasticity of labor productivity with respect to employment density, a widely used measure of the agglomeration effect, in the Yangtze River Delta, China. A spatial Durbin model is presented that makes explicit the influences of spatial dependence and endogeneity bias in a very simple way. Results of Bayesian estimation using the data of the year 2009 indicate that the productivity is influenced by factors correlated with density rather than density itself and that spatial spillovers of these factors of agglomeration play a significant role. They are consistent with the findings of Ke (2010) and Artis, et al. (2011) that suggest the importance of taking into account spatial dependence and hitherto omitted variables.

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This paper presents a simulation of the reduction of several components in trade cost for Asia and examines its impact on the economy. Our simulation model based on the new economic geography embraces seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia, in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. The geographical course of transactions among regions is modeled as determined based on firms’ modal choice. The model also includes estimates of some border cost measures such as tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, other border clearance costs, transshipment costs and so on. Our simulation analysis for Asia includes several scenarios involving the improvement/development of routes and the reduction of the above-mentioned border cost. We have shown that the contribution of physical and non-physical infrastructure improvements conducted together is larger than the sum of the contribution by each when conducted independently.

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This paper estimates the impact of industrial agglomeration on firm-level productivity in Chinese manufacturing sectors. To account for spatial autocorrelation across regions, we formulate a hierarchical spatial model at the firm level and develop a Bayesian estimation algorithm. A Bayesian instrumental-variables approach is used to address endogeneity bias of agglomeration. Robust to these potential biases, we find that agglomeration of the same industry (i.e. localization) has a productivity-boosting effect, but agglomeration of urban population (i.e. urbanization) has no such effects. Additionally, the localization effects increase with educational levels of employees and the share of intermediate inputs in gross output. These results may suggest that agglomeration externalities occur through knowledge spillovers and input sharing among firms producing similar manufactures.

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Global value chains are supported not only directly by domestic regions that export goods and services to the world market, but also indirectly by other domestic regions that provide parts, components, and intermediate services to final exporting regions. In order to better understand the nature of a country’s position and degree of participation in global value chains, we need to more fully examine the role of individual domestic regions. Understanding the domestic components of global supply chains is especially important for large developing countries like China and India, where there may be large variations in economic scale and development between domestic regions. This paper proposes a new framework for measuring domestic linkages to global value chains. This framework measures domestic linkages by endogenously embedding a country’s domestic interregional input-output (IO) table in an international IO model. Using this framework, we can more clearly describe how global production is fragmented and extended through linkages across a country’s domestic regions. This framework will also enable us to estimate how value added is created and distributed in both domestic and international segments of global value chains. For examining the validity and usefulness of this new approach, some numerical results are presented and discussed based on the 2007 Chinese interregional IO table, China customs statistics at the provincial level, and World Input-Output Tables (WIOTs).

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This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth.

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Firms in China within the same industry but with different ownership and size have very different production functions and can face very different emission regulations and financial conditions. This fact has largely been ignored in most of the existing literature on climate change. Using a newly augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm size and ownership are explicitly reported, this paper employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of alternative climate policy designs with respect to regulation and financial conditions on heterogeneous firms. The simulation results indicate that with a business-as-usual regulatory structure, the effectiveness and economic efficiency of climate policies is significantly undermined. Expanding regulation to cover additional firms has a first-order effect of improving efficiency. However, over-investment in energy technologies in certain firms may decrease the overall efficiency of investments and dampen long-term economic growth by competing with other fixed-capital investments for financial resources. Therefore, a market-oriented arrangement for sharing emission reduction burden and a mechanism for allocating green investment is crucial for China to achieve a more ambitious emission target in the long run.