The Japan-Peru FTA : antecedents, significance and main features

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and Peru came into effect on March 1, 2012. This paper provides background information about this agreement's significance, mostly from a Peruvian point of view. It focuses on the following subjects: the statistical trends showing Peru's declining shares in Japan's trade and investment flows with Latin American countries between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s, the main explanatory factors of such a deterioration in Peru's economic position over that period, the changes of trade policy strategy in both countries since the 2000s, and the EPA negotiation process and some of its key results as featured in the text of the agreement.

Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance

The international export and investment activities of firms have been widely studied by scholars. In particular, prior studies have focused on two main hypotheses about firms engaged in international activities such as exporting and investing abroad; namely, self-selection of more productive firms into international activities and learning-by-doing international activities. This paper is the first study that explores these hypotheses in regard to firms’ use of free trade agreements (FTAs). We first estimate the propensity score for firms’ use of FTA schemes, and find that larger firms are more likely to participate. Then, by conducting matching analysis using the propensity scores, we find that the use of FTA schemes does not change employment in firms, but does result in more local inputs used and increased exports.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

FTA utilization : certificate of origin data versus customs data

This paper empirically examines what kinds of elements affect the gap in free trade agreement (FTA) utilization with regard to customs data and certificates of origin (CoOs) data. We focus on Thai exports to Korea under the ASEAN-Korea FTA in 2011. As a result, we found that the products with the higher demand volatility or those with a larger number of tariff-line products within the same harmonized system (HS) six-digit code have the larger gap. Another important finding is that the difference between the HS version at the time of the FTA negotiation and the current HS version does not have significant association with the gap. These findings have important implications.

Impacts of common rules of origin on FTA utilization

This paper examines empirically the impacts of sharing rules of origin (RoOs) with other ASEAN+1 free trade agreements (FTAs) on ASEAN-Korea FTA/ASEAN-China FTA utilization in Thai exports in 2011. Our careful empirical analysis suggests that the harmonization of RoOs across FTAs play some role in reducing the costs yielded through the spaghetti bowl phenomenon. In particular, the harmonization to "change-in-tariff classification (CTC) or real value-added content (RVC)" will play a relatively positive role in not seriously discouraging firms’ use of multiple FTA schemes. On the other hand, the harmonization to CTC or CTC&RVC hinders firms from using those schemes.

Toward an inclusive and a little bit ethical world trading system : listening to the voices of the people in LDCs

Many specialists in international trade have started saying that the era of a mega FTA is approaching. If the three poles of the global economy, namely East Asia, EU and the United States, form mega FTAs, most of the volume of global trade will be covered. That may be fine, but there will be many countries left out of the mega FTA, most of which will be the least developed countries (LDCs). Since the inception of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations in 2001, the WTO and its member countries have tried to include LDCs in the world trading system through various means, including DFQF and AfT. Although these means have some positive impact on the economic development of LDCs, most of the LDCs will never feel comfortable with the current world trading system. To overcome the stalemate in the DDA and to create an inclusive world trading system, we need more commitment from both LDCs and non-LDCs. To surmount the prolonged stalemate in the DDA, we should understand how ordinary people in LDCs feel and think about the current world trading system. Those voices have seldom been listened to, even by the decision makers of their own countries. So as to understand the situation of the people in LDCs, IDE-JETRO carried out several research projects using macro, meso and micro approaches. For the micro level, we collected and analyzed statements from ordinary people concerning their opinions about the world trading system. The interviewees are ordinary people such as street vendors, farmers and factory workers. We asked about where they buy and sell daily necessities, their perception of imported goods, export promotion and free trade at large, etc. These ‘voices of the people’ surveys were conducted in Madagascar and Cambodia during 2013. Based on this research, and especially the findings from the ‘voices of the people’ surveys, we propose a ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’ strategy to conclude DDA negotiations and develop a more inclusive and a little bit more ethical world trading system. Our proposal may be summarized in the following three points. (1) Aid for Trade (AfT) ver. 2 Currently AfT is mainly focused on coordinating several aid projects related to LDCs’ capacity building. However, this is inadequate; for the proposed ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’, a super AfT is needed. The WTO, other development agencies and LDC governments will not only coordinate but also plan together aid projects for trade capacity building. AfT ver. 2 includes infrastructure projects either gran aid, ODA loans and private investment. This is in accordance with the post-MDGs argument which emphasizes the role of the private sector. (2) Ethical Attitude Reciprocity is a principle of multilateral agreement, and it has been a core promise since GATT. However, for designing an inclusive system, special and differential treatment (S&D) is still needed for disadvantaged members. To compromise full reciprocity and less than full reciprocity, an ethical attitude on the part of every member is needed in which every member refrains from insisting on the full rights and demands of its own country. As used herein, the term ‘ethical’ implies more consideration for LDCs, and it is almost identical to S&D but with a more positive attitude from developed countries (super S&D). (3) Collect Voices of the People In order to grasp the real situation of the people, the voices of the people on free trade will continue to be collected in other LDCs, and the findings and leanings will be fed back to the WTO negotiation space.

New measures of FTA liberalization level

This paper proposes new measures of the liberalization level of free trade agreements (FTAs). Our measures take three issues into account. First, in order to identify the differences in FTA liberalization level over time, we compute the annual liberalization level rather than the level during the whole period. Second, our measure includes information on tariff margins, i.e. the difference between FTA rates and most favoured nation rates. Third, the restrictiveness of rules of origin (RoOs) is also taken into account in order to penalize the liberalization level of products with more restrictive RoOs. In this paper, we compute such measures of FTA liberalization level for three FTAs in Thailand.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? : simulation analysis based on an extended knowledge-capital model

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract FDI, this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model. With a special focus on the effects of FTAs/EPAs between market countries and developing countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (1) Although FTA/EPA generally ends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labor becomes higher as the size of the country declines; (2) Because the additional implementation of cost-saving policies to reduce firm-type/trade-link specific fixed costs ends to depreciate the price of skilled labor by saving its input, a developing country, which is extremely scarce in skilled labor, is better off avoiding the additional option; (3) If a country hopes to enjoy larger welfare gains with EPA, efforts to increase skilled labor in the country, such as investing in education, may be beneficial.

Measuring the costs of FTA utilization : evidence from transaction-level import data of Thailand

In this study, we measure the utilization costs of free trade agreement (FTA) tariff schemes. To do that, we use shipment-level customs data on Thai imports, which identify not only firms, source country, and commodity but also tariff schemes. We propose several measures as a proxy for FTA utilization costs. The example includes the minimum amount of firm-level savings on tariff payments, i.e., trade values under FTA schemes multiplied by the tariff margin, in all transactions. Consequently, the median costs for FTA utilization in 2008, for example, are estimated to be approximately US$2,000 for exports from China, US$300 for exports from Australia, and US$1,000 for exports from Japan. We also found that FTA utilization costs differ by rule of origin and industry.

Service liberalization in Lao PDR

Service liberalization is emerging as a high-priority issue in various parts of the world for mega free trade agreements as well as national policy. Lao PDR is no exception. To examine the level of service liberalization in Lao PDR, we first compare the Hoekman Indices of Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam on the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS 8). Lao PDR has lower commitment in many subsectors. In particular, we list the sectors in which Lao PDR made a lower commitment than Cambodia and Vietnam in Mode 3 (supply of services through commercial establishments abroad). Second, a simulation analysis using the Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) from the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) reveals how service liberalization benefits the economic development of Lao PDR. The two analyses clearly reveal that it is essential for Lao PDR to promote further service liberalization since such liberalization will contribute to the country's development.

Accession clause of TPP : Is it really open?

One of the most important policy questions relating to the future impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the global and regional economy is whether other countries in the region, particularly China, will join the partnership. While several commentators have made some observations regarding the future prospects of TPP expansion, little scholarly analysis has been conducted. To go beyond the speculation of a certain country's accession to TPP, we first attempt to generalize the issue before moving on to a specific question. We conduct a comparative analysis of a large number of regional trade agreements for a better understanding of the parameters of RTAs that are critical for membership expansion. This general framework enables us to conduct a systematic examination of specific membership expansion cases, such as China's membership in TPP. The paper also proposes a necessary "accession practice" that truly facilitates new members' participation.

Dynamics of investment negotiations between China and Japan : the China-Japan-Korea trilateral investment treaty and beyond

The investment agreement relationship between China and Japan is complex. The many intersecting and overlapping agreements can rightly be described as a "noodle bowl of agreements." The 1989 bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between China and Japan still stands. Japan can also free-ride on the negotiation outcome of China's BITs and free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries by using the most-favored-nation (MFN) provision in the 1989 China-Japan BIT, which does not contain regional economic integration organization (REIO) exception rules. However, because the China-Japan BIT does not have investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), it may face implementation problems. The China-Japan-Korea trilateral investment treaty (CJK TIT), in force since 2014, made improvements upon the 1989 BIT, but Japan is not entirely satisfied with the outcome. For Japan, pre-establishment national treatment (NT) and prohibition of various types of performance requirements are the most important negotiation items, but the CJK TIT insufficiently addressed those problems. Moreover, because the CJK TIT has MFN provisions with an REIO exception rule, better access to investment markets brought about by future FTAs such as the China-Korea FTA and the EU-China FTA cannot be imported into CJK TIT. Hence, in the long run, Japan needs to pursue an FTA investment chapter with China that covers both MFN and ISDS.