Critical connections : Islamic politics and political economy in Indonesia and Malaysia

This article explores Islamic politics in two Muslim-majority countries in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia, by linking their trajectories, from late colonial emergence to recent upsurge, to broad concerns of political economy, including changing social bases, capitalist transformation, state policies, and economic crises. The Indonesian and Malaysian trajectories of Islamic politics are tracked in a comparative exercise that goes beyond the case studies to suggest that much of contemporary Islamic politics cannot be explained by reference to Islam alone, but to how Islamic identities and agendas are forged in contexts of modern and profane social contestation.

Effectiveness of the monetary policy framework in present-day India : have financial variables functioned as useful policy indicators

In April 1998, the RBI, the Indian central bank, formally announced a shift in its policy framework from monetary targeting to a multiple indicator approach, and since then, under this framework, the bank has considered a range of economic and financial variables as policy indicators for drawing policy perspectives. This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of this current policy framework in India by analyzing the causal relationships of each indicator variable on the objective variables. The results reveal that, except for bank credit, all indicator variables considered in this study have a causal relationship with at least either output or price level, suggesting that most preannounced economic and financial variables have served as useful policy indicators under the multiple indicator approach.

Transport costs, distance, and time : evidence from the Japanese Census of Logistics

Geographic distance is a standard proxy for transport costs under the simple assumption that freight fees increase monotonically over space. Using the Japanese Census of Logistics, this paper examines the extent to which transport distance and time affect freight costs across shipping modes, commodity groups, and prefecture pairs. The results show substantial heterogeneity in transport costs and time across shipping modes. Consistent with an iceberg formulation of transport costs, distance has a significantly positive effect on freight costs by air transportation. However, I find the puzzling results that business enterprises are likely to pay more for short-distance shipments by truck, ship, and railroad transportation. As a plausible explanation, I discuss aggregation bias arising from freight-specific premiums for timely, frequent, and small-batch shipments.

Political institutions and policy outcomes : effects of presidential vetoes on budget making

The article examines how the power distribution between the executive and the legislature under the Presidential system affects policy outcomes. We focus in particular on the presidential veto, both package and partial. Using a simple game theory model, we show that the presidential partial veto generally yields a result in favor of the President, but that such effects vary depending on the reversion points of the package veto and the Congress's possible use of sanctions against the President. The effects of the Presidential partial veto diminish if the reversion point meets certain conditions, or if the Congress has no power to impose sufficient sanctions on the President when the President revises the outcome ex-post. To clarify and explain the model, we present the case of budget making in the Philippines between 1994 and 2008. In the Philippines, the presidential partial veto has been bringing expenditure programs closer to the President's ideal point within what may be called the Congress's indifference curve. The Congress, however, has not always passed budget bills and from time to time has carried over the previous year's budget, in years when the budget deficit increased. This is the situation that the policy makers cannot retrieve from the reversion point.

Kenya's 2007 election crisis

On 27 December 2007, the Republic of Kenya held its tenth general election since independence. The ballot-related proceedings went as planned up to and including the vote count, providing grounds for optimism for a largely peaceful transfer of power. However, after the official declaration by the Electoral Commission of Kenya late in the afternoon of 30 December that the presidential election had been won by the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (from Central Province and a Kikuyu), Kenya entered into a period of deep crisis. How might we best understand this great turbulence, which was unprecedented in post-independence Kenya? Perhaps the answer lies in the sudden defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga from Nyanza Province and a Luo, who had been widely expected to win. With the post-election upheaval as the context, and looking at the situation from the standpoint of political history, this paper will offer an analysis of trends in Kenya's politics since 2002.

Are trading partners complementary in international trade?

We use a unique dataset on trading transactions at the firm level to investigate a complementary effect in international transactions between sellers and buyers; trading transactions are more likely to be international when both sellers and buyers are large in size than when either sellers or buyers are large. Our econometric analysis provides evidence for the complementary effect between trading partners on the likelihood of international trade, which is most prominent for exports from North to South.

Location choice of multinational enterprises in China : comparison between Japan and Taiwan

This paper examines and compares the location choice of Japanese and Taiwanese MNEs in China. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between location choice and firm characteristics, specifically firms' productivity. Due to Taiwan's linguistic and cultural advantages in China, it is expected that the location choice mechanics are different between Japanese and Taiwanese MNEs. As a result, our main findings are that, while the less productive Japanese firms prefer a location in an area with a larger agglomeration of Japanese affiliates or in an area closer to Japan, the more productive Taiwanese firms prefer a location in an area with a larger agglomeration of Taiwanese affiliates or in an area closer to Taiwan.

Globalization and productivity : a survey of firm-level analysis

Recent empirical studies which utilize plant- or establishment-level data to examine globalization's impact on productivity have discovered many causal mechanisms involved in globalization's impact on firms' productivity. Since these pathways have been broad, there have been few attempts to summarize the several and detailed mechanisms of self-selection and learning at the same time. This paper examines seven pathways so that the clear-cut consequences of the broad picture of globalization become visible. This strategy is useful for detecting missing links within and across the existing studies as well as for finding possible synergy effects among different mechanisms. Insightful policy implications may be derived from the comprehensive comparisons between the seven different pathways of globalization.

Cyber-networks, physical coalitions and missing links : imagining and realizing dissent in Malaysia 1998-2008

From September 1998 to March 2008, dissident cyber-networks in Malaysia developed connections with physical coalitions that contributed to the Opposition’s historic gains in the 12th General Election of March 2008. To succeed in entrenching a ‘two-coalition system’, however, the component parties of the Opposition coalition (Pakatan Rakyat) must establish its ‘missing links’, namely, extensive and deep organizational networks in society that would permit the coalition to move from imagining and realizing dissent to institutionalizing it meaningfully.

The dynamics of spending and absorption of aid : panel data analysis

In September 1999, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) established the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to make the reduction of poverty and the enhancement of economic growth the fundamental objectives of lending operations in its poorest member countries. This paper studies the spending and absorption of aid in PRGF-supported programs, verifies whether the use of aid is programmed to be smoothed over time, and analyzes how considerations about macroeconomic stability influence the programmed use of aid. The paper shows that PRGF-supported programs permit countries to utilize all increases in aid within a few years, showing smoothed use of aid inflows over time. Our results reveal that spending is higher than absorption in both the long-run and short-run use of aid, which is a robust finding of the study. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that the long-run spending exceeds the injected increase of aid inflows in the economy. In addition, the paper finds that the presence of a PRGF-supported program does not influence the actual absorption or spending of aid.

Trade of Heilongjiang Province (China) with Russia

Local trade between the Far East region of the USSR and the Northeast region of the People’s Republic of China started in 1957, arranged by the public trade organizations in the respective borderlands. Heilongjiang Province of China has been the main actor in trade with the Far East region of the USSR, and more recently, Russia. After 1957, Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East developed rapidly until 1993, except a period of interruption (1967-1982). Thereafter, the Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East underwent a stagnation period (1994-1998), a recovery period (1999-2001), a rapid development period (2002-2007) and a period of change of tendencies and radical decrease (2008-2009). Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East consists of three main forms: general trade, Chinese-style border trade (Bianjing Trade which includes Bianjing Small Trade and trade between private persons (Hushi Trade)) and Travel Trade. The rapid increase of Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East from 2002 to 2007 is mainly attributable to the increase in the export of ordinary consumer goods, especially textile clothing and footwear, and to Bianjing Small Trade.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Restoration of micro data of John Lossing Buck's survey and analysis of the inverse relationship between yield and farm size in rural China in the 1930's

A large scale Chinese agricultural survey was conducted at the direction of John Lossing Buck from 1929 through 1933. At the end of the 1990’s, some parts of the original micro data of Buck’s survey were discovered at Nanjing Agricultural University. An international joint study was begun to restore micro data of Buck’s survey and construct parts of the micro database on both the crop yield survey and special expenditure survey. This paper includes a summary of the characteristics of farmlands and cropping patterns in crop yield micro data that covered 2,102 farmers in 20 counties of 9 provinces. In order to test the classical hypothesis of whether or not an inverse relationship between land productivity and cultivated area may be observed in developing countries, a Box-Cox transformation test was conducted for functional forms on five main crops of Buck’s crop yield survey. The result of the test shows that the relationship between land productivity and cultivated areas of wheat and barley is linear and somewhat negative; those of rice, rapeseed, and seed cotton appear to be slightly positive. It can be tentatively concluded that the relationship between cultivated area and land productivity are not the same among crops, and the difference of labor intensity and the level of commercialization of each crop may be strongly related to the existence or non-existence of inverse relationships.

How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? : empirical analysis using state-level panel data

This paper examines empirically whether financial deepening has contributed to poverty reduction in India. Using unbalanced panel data for 28 states and union territories between 1973 and 2004, we estimate models in which the poverty ratio is explained by financial deepening, controlling for international openness, inflation rate, and economic growth. From the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that financial deepening and economic growth alleviate poverty, while international openness and the inflation rate have the opposite effect. These results are robust to changes in the poverty ratios in rural areas, urban areas, and the whole economy.

The size distribution of all Cambodian establishments

This paper presents empirical evidence on the size distribution of all Cambodian establishments in the nonfarm sector for 2009. Small- and large-scale establishments account for the largest share of employment, pointing to a “missing middle” that is commonly observed in developing countries. The analysis provides little evidence for Zipf’s law because Cambodian industry is characterized by a more dense mass of small establishments than the Zipf distribution would predict.