Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Rates of egg production, grazing and mortatlity of Calanus finmarchicus measured experimentally in the North Atlantic during the Maria S. Merian cruise MSM26, spring 2013

An incubation experiment at five different temperatures was used to assess the potential for adaptation of Calanus finmarchicus to future warming of the ocean. During a short term (3 h) and long term (6 day) exposure of individual females to a gradient of temperature stress, egg production and fecal pellet production were monitored to indicate secondary production and grazing rates. A longer term (10 day) exposure to elevated temperatures followed by a return to ambient sea temperatures was used to assess the potential recovery of individuals exposed to temperature stress. Females were picked out from WP2 net samples and acclimatised in 2 L bottles of GFF filtered seawater with Thalassiosira weissflogii as prey for >48 h at ambient SST. Experimental bottles were filled with filtered seawater (GFF filtered from non-toxic seawater supply) and acclimated to experimental temperature overnight (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 °C). Individual females were transferred into bottles using forceps and the bottles were inoculated with T. weissflogii to a final concentration of 5 µg chl L-1. Bottles were then placed into water baths and incubated for 3h or 6 d, and monitored for egg and fecal pellet production rates. A 10 day exposure experiment was used to test the potential for recovery from temperature stress, by returning females incubated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 °C back to 10 °C for 24 h and counting egg and fecal pellet production.