Color data, carbon and oxygen isotopes, and offsets from BBCP Polecat Bench cores 2A and 2B

The Earth's climate abruptly warmed by 5-8 °C during the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), about 55.5 million years ago**1,2. This warming was associated with a massive addition of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system, but estimates of the Earth systemresponse to this perturbation are complicated by widely varying estimates of the duration of carbon release, which range from less than a year to tens of thousands of years. In addition the source of the carbon, and whether it was released as a single injection or in several pulses, remains the subject of debate**2-4. Here we present a new high-resolution carbon isotope record from terrestrial deposits in the Bighorn Basin (Wyoming, USA) spanning the PETM, and interpret the record using a carbon-cycle boxmodel of the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere system.Our record shows that the beginning of the PETMis characterized by not one but two distinct carbon release events, separated by a recovery to background values. To reproduce this pattern, our model requires two discrete pulses of carbon released directly to the atmosphere, at average rates exceeding 0.9 Pg C yr**-1, with the first pulse lasting fewer than 2,000 years.

Dinoflagellate cyst counts and age model from sediment samples of ODP Hole 175-1085A

Sediment samples from ODP Site 1085 were investigated in order to obtain more information on the initiation and development of the Benguela upwelling system during the middle and upper Miocene. In particular, our intent was to establish the causes of the upwelling as well as the response of the upwelling regime to the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Based on changes in the calcareous dinoflagellate cyst association, we found an initial increase of the dinoflagellate cyst productivity, probably related to the initiation of upwelling about 11.8 Ma ago. Two distinct increases in cyst productivity in conjunction with temperature decreases of the upper water masses reflect upwelling pulses off Namibia and occur at the end of the Miocene cooling events Mi5 (about 11.5 Ma) and Mi6 (about 10.5 Ma). Both cooling events are associated with an ice volume increase in Antarctica and are thought to have led to an increase in southeasterly winds, possibly causing these two upwelling pulses. We demonstrate a decrease in dinoflagellate cyst productivity and enhanced terrigenous input via the Orange River after the Mi5 event. At about 11.1 Ma, the dinoflagellate cyst productivity increases again. The polar cyst species Caracomia arctica occurs here for the first time. This implies an influence of subantarctic mode water and therefore a change in the quality of the upwelling water which allowed the Benguela upwelling to develop into modern conditions. From about 10.4 Ma, C. arctica forms a permanent part of the association, pointing to an establishment of the upwelling regime.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Holocene carbon cycle dynamics, links to model files

We are investigating the late Holocene rise in CO2 by performing four experiments with the climate-carbon-cycle model CLIMBER2-LPJ. Apart from the deep sea sediments, important carbon cycle processes considered are carbon uptake or release by the vegetation, carbon uptake by peatlands, and CO 2 release due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3. Ice core data of atmospheric CO2 between 8 ka BP and preindustrial climate can only be reproduced if CO2 outgassing due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3 is considered. In this case the model displays an increase of nearly 20 ppmv CO2 between 8 ka BP and present day. Model configurations that do not contain this forcing show a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2. We can therefore explain the late Holocene rise in CO2 by invoking natural forcing factors only, and anthropogenic forcing is not required to understand preindustrial CO2 dynamics.

Nd, Sr and Sm isotopic composition and model ages of rocks from the Anginskaya and Talanchanskaya formations, Lake Baikal

The paper presents data on the Nd-Sr systematics of magmatic rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series of the Anginskaya Formation in the Ol'khon region, western Baikal area, and rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation on the eastern shore of Lake Baikal. Geochemical characteristics of these rocks are identical and testify to their arc provenance. At the same time, the epsilon(t)Nd of rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series in the Ol'khon area has positive values, and the data points of these rocks plot near the mantle succession line in the epsilon(t)Nd-87Sr/86Sr diagram, whereas the epsilon(t)Nd values of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation are negative, and the data points of these rocks fall into the fourth quadrant in the epsilon(t)Nd -87Sr/86Sr diagram. This testifies to a mantle genesis of the parental magmas of the Khaidaiskii Series and to the significant involvement of older crustal material in the generation of the melts that produced the orthorocks on the eastern shore of the lake. These conclusions are corroborated by model ages of magmatic rocks in the Ol'khon area (close to 1 Ga) and of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation (approximately 2 Ga). The comparison of our data with those obtained by other researchers on the Nd-Sr isotopic age of granulites of the Ol'khon Group and metavolcanics in various structural zones in the northern Baikal area suggests, with regard for the geochemistry of these rocks, the accretion of tectonic nappes that had different isotopic histories: some of them were derived from the mantle wedge and localized in the island arc itself (magmatic rocks of the Anginskaya Formation) or backarc spreading zone (mafic metamagmatic rocks of the Ol'khon Group), while others were partial melts derived, with the participation of crustal material, from sources of various age (metagraywackes in the backarc basin in the Ol'khon Group and the ensialic basement of the island arc in the Talanchanskaya Formation).

Gotland Deep (Baltic Sea) independent age model based on Palaeomagnetic Secular Variation (PSV) and lead (Pb) deposition profiles

Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

Three time-slice simulations of the Eemian (eem), the mid-Holocene (hol), and a pre-industrial (pri) control run with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Microcharcoal concentration and elongation, and age model of sediment core MD96-2098

Although grassland and savanna occupy only a quarter of the world's vegetation, burning in these ecosystems accounts for roughly half the global carbon emissions from fire. However, the processes that govern changes in grassland burning are poorly understood, particularly on time scales beyond satellite records. We analyzed microcharcoal, sediments, and geochemistry in a high-resolution marine sediment core off Namibia to identify the processes that have controlled biomass burning in southern African grassland ecosystems under large, multimillennial-scale climate changes. Six fire cycles occurred during the past 170,000 y in southern Africa that correspond both in timing and magnitude to the precessional forcing of north-south shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Contrary to the conventional expectation that fire increases with higher temperatures and increased drought, we found that wetter and cooler climates cause increased burning in the study region, owing to a shift in rainfall amount and seasonality (and thus vegetation flammability). We also show that charcoal morphology (i.e., the particle's length-to-width ratio) can be used to reconstruct changes in fire activity as well as biome shifts over time. Our results provide essential context for understanding current and future grassland-fire dynamics and their associated carbon emissions.

Mineral dust deposition in interglacial and glacial climate conditions: model results

The global aerosol/climate model ECHAM5-HAM is used in order to investigate the dust cycle for four interglacial and one glacial climate conditions. The 20-year time-slices are the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 years BP), last glacial inception (115000 years BP), Eemian (126000 years BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21000 years BP) time intervals. The study is focused on the Antarctic region. The model is able to reproduce the magnitude order of dust deposition globally for the pre-industial and LGM climates. Correlation coefficient of the natural logarithm of the observed and modeled values is 0.78 for the CTRL and 0.81 for the LGM. For the pre-industrial simulation the model overestimates observed values in Antarctica by a factor of about 2-3 due to overestimation of the Australian dust source and too high wet deposition in the Antarctica interior. In the LGM, the model underestimates dust deposition in eastern Antarctica by a factor of about 4-5 due to underestimation of the South American dust source. More records are needed to validate dust deposition for the past interglacial time-slices. The modeled results show that dust deposition in Antarctica in the past interglacial time-slices is higher than in the CTRL simulation. The largest increase of dust deposition in Antarctica is simulated for the LGM, showing about 10-fold increase compared to CTRL.

Phosphorylation levels of JAK2 after addition of increasing Epo-concentrations: model approach (Figure 5a)

The present dataset contain source data for Figure 5a from Schilling et al., 2009. Cell fate decisions are regulated by the coordinated activation of signalling pathways such as the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) cascade, but contributions of individual kinase isoforms are mostly unknown. The authors combined quantitative data from erythropoietin-induced pathway activation in primary erythroid progenitor (colony-forming unit erythroid stage, CFU-E) cells with mathematical modelling, in order to predict and experimentally confirmed a distributive ERK phosphorylation mechanism in CFU-E cells. The authors found evidences that double-phosphorylated ERK1 attenuates proliferation beyond a certain activation level, whereas activated ERK2 enhances proliferation with saturation kinetics. Phosphorylation levels of JAK2 at 7 min after stimulation for Epo concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 1000 U/ml were simulated.

Age model, stable isotopes, major element proportions and endmember unmixing results from four western tropical Atlantic cores

We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

The photo-physiological response of a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis to CO2-induced acidification at the cellular level

We measured the relationship between CO2-induced seawater acidification, photo-physiological performance and intracellular pH (pHi) in a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis - the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. -under ambient (289.94 ± 12.54 µatm), intermediate (687.40 ± 25.10 µatm) and high (1459.92 ± 65.51 µatm) CO2 conditions. These treatments represented current CO2 levels, in addition to CO2 stabilisation scenarios IV and VI provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Anemones were exposed to each treatment for two months and sampled at regular intervals. At each time-point we measured a series of physiological responses: maximum dark-adapted fluorescent yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), gross photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, symbiont population density, and light-adapted pHi of both the dinoflagellate symbiont and isolated host anemone cell. We observed increases in all but one photo-physiological parameter (Pgross:R ratio). At the cellular level, increases in light-adapted symbiont pHi were observed under both intermediate and high CO2 treatments, relative to control conditions (pHi 7.35 and 7.46 versus pHi 7.25, respectively). The response of light-adapted host pHi was more complex, however, with no change observed under the intermediate CO2 treatment, but a 0.3 pH-unit increase under the high CO2 treatment (pHi 7.19 and 7.48, respectively). This difference is likely a result of a disproportionate increase in photosynthesis relative to respiration at the higher CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that, rather than causing cellular acidosis, the addition of CO2 will enhance photosynthetic performance, enabling both the symbiont and host cell to withstand predicted ocean acidification scenarios.

Regional ocean model for the Mediterranean, links to model files

A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.