9 resultados para uncertainty-based coordination

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The Pliocene period is the most recent time when the Earth was globally significantly (~3°C) warmer than today. However, the existing pCO2 data for the Pliocene are sparse and there is little agreement between the various techniques used to reconstruct palaeo-pCO2. Moreover, the temporal resolution of the published records does not allow a robust assessment of the role of declining pCO2 in the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (INHG) and a direct comparison to other proxy records are lacking. For the first time, we use a combination of foraminiferal (delta11B) and organic biomarker (alkenone-derived carbon isotopes) proxies to determine the concentration of atmospheric CO2 over the past 5 Ma. Both proxy records show that during the warm Pliocene pCO2 was between 330 and 400 ppm, i.e. similar to today. The decrease to values similar to pre-industrial times (275-285 ppm) occurred between 3.2 Ma and 2.8 Ma - coincident with the INHG and affirming the link between global climate, the cryosphere and pCO2.

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Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

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Although sea-ice extent in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen (BA) seas sector of the Antarctic has shown significant decline over several decades, there is not enough data to draw any conclusion on sea-ice thickness and its change for the BA sector, or for the entire Southern Ocean. This paper presents our results of snow and ice thickness distributions from the SIMBA 2007 experiment in the Bellingshausen Sea, using four different methods (ASPeCt ship observations, downward-looking camera imaging, ship-based electromagnetic induction (EM) sounding, and in situ measurements using ice drills). A snow freeboard and ice thickness model generated from in situ measurements was then applied to contemporaneous ICESat (satellite laser altimetry) measured freeboard to derive ice thickness at the ICESat footprint scale. Errors from in situ measurements and from ICESat freeboard estimations were incorporated into the model, so a thorough evaluation of the model and uncertainty of the ice thickness estimation from ICESat are possible. Our results indicate that ICESat derived snow freeboard and ice thickness distributions (asymmetrical unimodal tailing to right) for first-year ice (0.29 ± 0.14 m for mean snow freeboard and 1.06 ± 0.40 m for mean ice thickness), multi-year ice (0.48 ± 0.26 and 1.59 ± 0.75 m, respectively), and all ice together (0.42 ± 0.24 and 1.38 ± 0.70 m, respectively) for the study area seem reasonable compared with those values from the in situ measurements, ASPeCt observations, and EM measurements. The EM measurements can act as an appropriate supplement for ASPeCt observations taken hourly from the ship's bridge and provide reasonable ice and snow distributions under homogeneous ice conditions. Our proposed approaches: (1) of using empirical equations relating snow freeboard to ice thickness based on in situ measurements and (2) of using isostatic equations that replace snow depth with snow freeboard (or empirical equations that convert freeboard to snow depth), are efficient and important ways to derive ice thickness from ICESat altimetry at the footprint scale for Antarctic sea ice. Spatial and temporal snow and ice thickness from satellite altimetry for the BA sector and for the entire Southern Ocean is therefore possible.

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Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

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During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

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The increasing pCO2 in seawater is a serious threat for marine calcifiers and alters the biogeochemistry of the ocean. Therefore, the reconstruction of past-seawater properties and their impact on marine ecosystems is an important way to investigate the underlying mechanisms and to better constrain the effects of possible changes in the future ocean. Cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots. Living close to aragonite undersaturation, these corals serve as living laboratories as well as archives to reconstruct the boundary conditions of their calcification under the carbonate system of the ocean. We investigated the reef-building CWC Lophelia pertusa as a recorder of intermediate ocean seawater pH. This species-specific field calibration is based on a unique sample set of live in situ collected L. pertusa and corresponding seawater samples. These data demonstrate that uranium speciation and skeletal incorporation for azooxanthellate scleractinian CWCs is pH dependent and can be reconstructed with an uncertainty of ±0.15. Our Lophelia U / Ca-pH calibration appears to be controlled by the high pH values and thus highlighting the need for future coral and seawater sampling to refine this relationship. However, this study recommends L. pertusa as a new archive for the reconstruction of intermediate water mass pH and hence may help to constrain tipping points for ecosystem dynamics and evolutionary characteristics in a changing ocean.

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Community metabolism was investigated using a Lagrangian flow respirometry technique on 2 reef flats at Moorea (French Polynesia) during austral winter and Yonge Reef (Great Barrier Reef) during austral summer. The data were used to estimate related air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. A sine function did not satisfactorily model the diel light curves and overestimated the metabolic parameters. The ranges of community gross primary production and respiration (Pg and R; 9 to 15 g C m-2 d-1) were within the range previously reported for reef flats, and community net calcification (G; 19 to 25 g CaCO3 m-2 d-1) was higher than the 'standard' range. The molar ratio of organic to inorganic carbon uptake was 6:1 for both sites. The reef flat at Moorea displayed a higher rate of organic production and a lower rate of calcification compared to previous measurements carried out during austral summer. The approximate uncertainty of the daily metabolic parameters was estimated using a procedure based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The standard errors of Pg,R and Pg/R expressed as a percentage of the mean are lower than 3% but are comparatively larger for E, the excess production (6 to 78%). The daily air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) was positive throughout the field experiments, indicating that the reef flats at Moorea and Yonge Reef released CO2 to the atmosphere at the time of measurement. FCO2 decreased as a function of increasing daily irradiance.

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Community metabolism was investigated using a Lagrangian flow respirometry technique on 2 reef flats at Moorea (French Polynesia) during austral winter and Yonge Reef (Great Barrier Reef) during austral summer. The data were used to estimate related air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. A sine function did not satisfactorily model the diel light curves and overestimated the metabolic parameters. The ranges of community gross primary production and respiration (Pg and R; 9 to 15 g C m-2 d-1) were within the range previously reported for reef flats, and community net calcification (G; 19 to 25 g CaCO3 m-2 d-1) was higher than the 'standard' range. The molar ratio of organic to inorganic carbon uptake was 6:1 for both sites. The reef flat at Moorea displayed a higher rate of organic production and a lower rate of calcification compared to previous measurements carried out during austral summer. The approximate uncertainty of the daily metabolic parameters was estimated using a procedure based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The standard errors of Pg,R and Pg/R expressed as a percentage of the mean are lower than 3% but are comparatively larger for E, the excess production (6 to 78%). The daily air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) was positive throughout the field experiments, indicating that the reef flats at Moorea and Yonge Reef released CO2 to the atmosphere at the time of measurement. FCO2 decreased as a function of increasing daily irradiance.