(Table 1) UK research stations, refuges and major depots between 1944 and 2010

Globally, areas categorically known to be free of human visitation are rare, but still exist in Antarctica. Such areas may be among the most pristine locations remaining on Earth and, therefore, be valuable as baselines for future comparisons with localities impacted by human activities, and as sites preserved for scientific research using increasingly sophisticated future technologies. Nevertheless, unvisited areas are becoming increasingly rare as the human footprint expands in Antarctica. Therefore, an understanding of historical and contemporary levels of visitation at locations across Antarctica is essential to a) estimate likely cumulative environmental impact, b) identify regions that may have been impacted by non-native species introductions, and c) inform the future designation of protected areas under the Antarctic Treaty System. Currently, records of Antarctic tourist visits exist, but little detailed information is readily available on the spatial and temporal distribution of national governmental programme activities in Antarctica. Here we describe methods to fulfil this need. Using information within field reports and archive and science databases pertaining to the activities of the United Kingdom as an illustration, we describe the history and trends in its operational footprint in the Antarctic Peninsula since c. 1944. Based on this illustration, we suggest that these methodologies could be applied productively more generally.

Seed dispersal characteristics to polar regions by means of visitors

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakicenovic N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (~33,054) are higher than those of scientists (~7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.