Comparisons of observed ice properties and Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data during Nathanial B. Palmer cruise NBP09-01 and Oden cruise OSO08/09

Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath Mode (WSM) images are used to derive C-band HH-polarization normalized radar cross sections (NRCS). These are compared with ice-core analysis and visual ship-based observations of snow and ice properties observed according to the Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt) protocol during two International Polar Year summer cruises (Oden 2008 and Palmer 2009) in West Antarctica. Thick first-year (TFY) and multi-year (MY) ice were the dominant ice types. The NRCS value ranges between -16.3 ± 1.1 and -7.6 ± 1.0 dB for TFY ice, and is -12.6 ± 1.3 dB for MY ice; for TFY ice, NRCS values increase from ~-15 dB to -9 dB from December/January to mid-February. In situ and ASPeCt observations are not, however, detailed enough to interpret the observed NRCS change over time. Co-located Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) vertically polarized 37 GHz brightness temperatures (TB37V), 7 day and 1 day averages as well as the TB37V difference between ascending and descending AMSR-E overpasses suggest the low NRCS values (-15 dB) are associated with snowmelt being still in progress, while the change towards higher NRCS values (-9dB) is caused by commencement of melt-refreeze cycles after about mid-January.

Flow conditions, bed form dimensions and shear stress experiments

Large asymmetric bed forms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bed form geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bed form shear stress over angle-of-repose (30 lee side angle) bed forms. The model was validated with lab measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bed form height/water depth), and aspect ratio (bed form height/length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region/extent of water body above the bed form) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bed forms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of smallscale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.