Figures and related data of a review of the "Global and Russian energy outlook up to 2040"

The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector. Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia's economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.

Palynology on sediment profile Tso Kar in Ladakh

Palynological investigation of a 410 cm long core section from Tso Kar (33°10'N, 78°E, 4527 m a.s.l.), an alpine lake situated in the arid Ladakh area of NW India at the limit of the present-day Indian summer monsoon, was performed in order to reconstruct post-glacial regional vegetation and climate dynamics. The area was covered with alpine desert vegetation from ca. 15.2 to 14 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. years), reflecting dry and cold conditions. High influx values of long-distance transported Pinus sylvestris type pollen suggest prevailing air flow from the west and northwest. The spread of alpine meadow communities and local aquatic vegetation is a weak sign of climate amelioration after ca. 14 kyr BP. Pollen data (e.g. influx values of Pinus roxburghii type and Quercus) suggest that this was due to a strengthening of the summer monsoon and the reduced activity of westerly winds. The further spread of Artemisia and species-rich meadows occurred in response to improved moisture conditions between ca. 12.9 and 12.5 kyr BP. The subsequent change towards drier desert-steppe vegetation likely indicates more frequent westerly disturbances and associated snowfalls, which favoured the persistence of alpine meadows on edaphically moist sites. The spread of Chenopodiaceae-dominated vegetation associated with an extremely weak monsoon occurred at ca. 12.2-11.8 kyr BP during the Younger Dryas interstadial. A major increase in humidity is inferred from the development of Artemisia-dominated steppe and wet alpine meadows with Gentianaceae after the late glacial/early Holocene transition in response to the strengthening of the summer monsoon. Monsoonal influence reached maximum activity in the Tso Kar region between ca. 10.9 and 9.2 kyr BP. The subsequent development of the alpine meadow, steppe and desert-steppe vegetation points to a moderate reduction in the moisture supply, which can be linked to the weaker summer monsoon and the accompanying enhancement of the winter westerly flow from ca. 9.2 to 4.8 kyr BP. The highest water levels of Tso Kar around 8 kyr BP probably reflect combined effect of both monsoonal and westerly influence in the region. An abrupt shift towards aridity in the Tso Kar region occurred after ca. 4.8 kyr BP, as evidenced by an expansion of Chenopodiaceae-dominated desert-steppe. Low pollen influx values registered ca. 2.8-1.3 kyr BP suggest scarce vegetation cover and unfavourable growing conditions likely associated with a further weakening of the Indian Monsoon.

Pollen and diatom analysis on varved sediments in Lake Jues (Harz Mountains, Germany)

Studies combining sedimentological and biological evidence to reconstruct Holocene climate beyond the major changes, and especially seasonality, are rare in Europe, and are nearly completely absent in Germany. The present study tries to reconstruct changes of seasonality from evidence of annual algal successions within the framework of well-established pollen zonation and 14C-AMS dates from terrestrial plants. Laminated Holocene sediments in Lake Jues (10°20.70' E, 51°39.30' N, 241 m a.s.l.), located at the SW margin of the Harz Mountains, central Germany, were studied for sediment characteristics, pollen, diatoms and coccal green algae. An age model is based on 21 calibrated AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plants. The sedimentary record covers the entire Holocene period. Trophic status and circulation/stagnation patterns of the lake were inferred from algal assemblages, the subannual structure of varves and the physico-chemical properties of the sediment. During the Holocene, mixing conditions alternated between di-, oligo- and meromictic depending on length and variability of spring and fall periods, and the stability of winter and summer weather. The trophic state was controlled by nutrient input, circulation patterns and the temperature-dependent rates of organic production and mineralization. Climate shifts, mainly in phase with those recorded from other European regions, are inferred from changing limnological conditions and terrestrial vegetation. Significant changes occurred at 11,600 cal. yr. BP (Preboreal warming), between 10,600 and 10,100 cal. yr. BP (Boreal cooling), and between 8,400 and 4,550 cal. yr. BP (warm and dry interval of the Atlantic). Since 4,550 cal. yr. BP the climate became gradually cooler, wetter and more oceanic. This trend was interrupted by warmer and dryer phases between 3,440 and 2,850 cal. yr. BP and, likely, between 2,500 and 2,250 cal. yr. BP.

Palynology on lake sediments from the Pyrenees

A multi-proxy palaeoecological investigation including pollen, plant macrofossil, radiocarbon and sedimentological analyses, was performed on a small mountain lake in the Eastern Pyrenees. This has allowed the reconstruction of: (1) the vegetation history of the area based on five pollen diagrams and eight AMS14C dates and (2) the past lake-level changes, based on plant macrofossil, lithological and pollen analysis of two stratigraphical transects correlated by pollen analysis. The palaeolake may have appeared before the Younger Dryas; the lake-level was low and the vegetation dominated by cold steppic grasslands. The lake-level rose to its highest level during the Holocene in the Middle Atlantic (at ca. 5060±45 b.p.). Postglacial forests (Quercetum mixtum and Abieto-Fagetum) developed progressively in the lower part of the valley, while dense Pinus uncinata forests rapidly invaded the surroundings of the mire and remained the dominant local vegetation until present. The observed lowering of the lake levels during the Late Atlantic and the Subboreal (from 5060 ± B.P. to 3590±40 b.p.) was related to the overgrowth of the mire. The first obvious indications of anthropogenic disturbances of the vegetation are recorded at the Atlantic/Subboreal boundary as a reduction in the forest component, which has accelerated during the last two millennia.