Multi-temporal shoreline change rates on Taku Atoll

Recent-past shoreline changes on reef islands are now subject to intensified monitoring via remote sensing data. Based on these data, rates of shoreline change calculated from long-term measurements (decadal) are often markedly lower than recent short-term rates (over a number of years). This observation has raised speculations about the growing influence of sea-level rise on reef island stability. This observation, however, can also be explained if we consider two basic principles of geomorphology and sedimentology. For Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea, we show that natural shoreline fluctuations of dynamic reef islands have a crucial influence on the calculation of short-term rates of change. We analyze an extensive dataset of multitemporal shoreline change rates from 1943 to 2012 and find that differing rates between long- and short-term measurements consistently reflect the length of the observation interval. This relationship appears independent from the study era and indicates that reef islands were equally dynamic during the early periods of analysis, i.e. before the recent acceleration of sea-level rise. Consequently, we suggest that high rates of shoreline change calculated from recent short-term observations may simply result from a change in temporal scale and a shift from geomorphic equilibrium achieved over cyclic time towards an apparent disequilibrium during shorter periods of graded time. This new interpretation of short- and long-term shoreline change rates has important implications for the ongoing discussion about reef island vulnerability, showing that an observed jump from low to high rates of change may be independent from external influences, including but not limited to sea-level rise.

Shoreline change on nine reef islands over a seven-decade period

Atoll islands are subject to a variety of processes that influence their geomorphological development. Analysis of historical shoreline changes using remotely sensed images has become an efficient approach to both quantify past changes and estimate future island response. However, the detection of long-term changes in beach width is challenging mainly for two reasons: first, data availability is limited for many remote Pacific islands. Second, beach environments are highly dynamic and strongly influenced by seasonal or episodic shoreline oscillations. Consequently, remote-sensing studies on beach morphodynamics of atoll islands deal with dynamic features covered by a low sampling frequency. Here we present a study of beach dynamics for nine islands on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea, over a seven-decade period. A considerable chronological gap between aerial photographs and satellite images was addressed by applying a new method that reweighted positions of the beach limit by identifying "outlier" shoreline positions. On top of natural beach variability observed along the reweighted beach sections, we found that one third of the analyzed islands show a statistically significant decrease in reweighted beach width since 1943. The total loss of beach area for all islands corresponds to 44% of the initial beach area. Variable shoreline trajectories suggest that changes in beach width on Takú Atoll are dependent on local control (that is, human activity and longshore sediment transport). Our results show that remote imagery with a low sampling frequency may be sufficient to characterize prominent morphological changes in planform beach configuration of reef islands.

Satellite-based daily lake areas in the Yangtze Basin, China, 2000-2011

The Yangtze River Basin downstream of China's Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (thereafter referred to as "downstream" basin) hosts the largest cluster of freshwater lakes in East Asia. These lakes are crucial water stocks to local biophysical environments and socioeconomic development. Existing studies document that individual lakes in this region have recently experienced dramatic changes under the context of enduring meteorological drought, continuous population growth, and extensive water regulation since TGD's initial impoundment (i.e., June, 2003). However, spatial and temporal patterns of lake dynamics across the complete downstream Yangtze basin remain poorly characterized. Using daily MODIS imagery and an advanced thematic mapping scheme, this study presents a comprehensive monitoring of area dynamics in the downstream lake system at a 10-day temporal resolution during 2000-2011. The studied lakes constitute ~76% (~11,400 km**2) of the total downstream lake area, including the entire +70 major lakes larger than 20 km**2. The results reveal a decadal net decline in lake inundation area across the downstream Yangtze Basin, with a cumulative decrease of 849 km**2 or 7.4% from 2000 to 2011. Despite an excessive precipitation anomaly in the year 2010, the decreasing trend was tested significant in all seasons. The most substantial decrease in the post-TGD period appears in fall (1.1%/yr), which intriguingly coincides with the TGD water storage season. Regional lake dynamics exhibit contrasting spatial patterns, manifested as evident decrease and increase of aggregated lake areas respectively within and beyond the Yangtze Plain. This contrast suggests a marked vulnerability of lakes in the Yangtze Plain, to not only local meteorological variability but also intensified human water regulations from both the upstream Yangtze main stem (e.g., the TGD) and tributaries (e.g., lakes/reservoirs beyond the Yangtze Plain). The produced lake mapping result and derived lake area dynamics across the downstream Yangtze Basin provides a crucial monitoring basis for continuous investigations of changing mechanisms in the Yangtze lake system.