Pollen analysis of modern mangrove systems

Three sediment cores from the Bragança Peninsula located in the coastal region in the north-eastern portion of Pará State have been studied by pollen analysis to reconstruct Holocene environmental changes and dynamics of the mangrove ecosystem. The cores were taken from an Avicennia forest (Bosque de Avicennia (BDA)), a salt marsh area (Campo Salgado (CS)) and a Rhizophora dominated area (Furo do Chato). Pollen traps were installed in five different areas of the peninsula to study modern pollen deposition. Nine accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates provide time control and show that sediment deposits accumulated relatively undisturbed. Mangrove vegetation started to develop at different times at the three sites: at 5120 14C yr BP at the CS site, at 2170 14C yr BP at the BDA site and at 1440 14C yr BP at the FDC site. Since mid Holocene times, the mangroves covered even the most elevated area on the peninsula, which is today a salt marsh, suggesting somewhat higher relative sea-levels. The pollen concentration in relatively undisturbed deposits seems to be an indicator for the frequency of inundation. The tidal inundation frequency decreased, probably related to lower sea-levels, during the late Holocene around 1770 14C yr BP at BDA, around 910 14C yr BP at FDC and around 750 14C yr BP at CS. The change from a mangrove ecosystem to a salt marsh on the higher elevation, around 420 14C yr BP is probably natural and not due to an anthropogenic impact. Modern pollen rain from different mangrove types show different ratios between Rhizophora and Avicennia pollen, which can be used to reconstruct past composition of the mangrove. In spite of bioturbation and especially tidal inundation, which change the local pollen deposition within the mangrove zone, past mangrove dynamics can be reconstructed. The pollen record for BDA indicates a mixed Rhizophora/Avicennia mangrove vegetation between 2170 and 1770 14C yr BP. Later Rhizophora trees became more frequent and since ca. 200 14C yr BP Avicennia dominated in the forest.

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions

Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm PCO2) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm PCO2) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.