31 resultados para system dynamics

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Thawing-induced cliff top retreat in permafrost landscapes is mainly due to thermo-erosion. Ground-ice-rich permafrost landscapes are specifically vulnerable to thermo-erosion and may show high degradation rates. Within the HGF Alliance Remote Sensing and the FP7 PAGE21 permafrost programs we investigated how SAR and optical remote sensing can contribute to the monitoring of erosion rates of ice-rich cliffs in Arctic Siberia (Lena Delta, Russia). We produced two different vector products: i) Intra-annual cliff top retreat based on TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite data (2012-2014): High-temporal resolution time series of TSX satellite data allow the inter-annual and intra-annual monitoring of the upper cliff-line retreat also under bad weather conditions and continuous cloud coverage. This published SAR product contains the retreating upper cliff lines of a 1.5 km long part of eroding ice-rich coast of Kurungnakh Island in the central Lena Delta. The upper cliff line was mapped using a thresholding approach for images acquired in the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 for the months June (2013, 2014), July (2013, 2014), August (2012, 2013, 2014) and September (2013, 2014). The cliff top retreat vector product is called 'upper_cliff_TerraSAR-X'. While the 2014 cliff lines show a clear retreat of 2 to 3 m/month, the cliff top lines for 2012 and 2013 are not chronologically ordered. However, lines from the end of the season of a year are always close to the lines from the beginning of the next summer season, indicating low cliff retreat in winter. ii) 4-year cliff top retreat based on optical satellite data (2010-2014): Long-term cliff top retreat could be assessed with two high-spatial resolution optical satellite images (GeoEye-1, 2010-08-05 and Worldview-1, 2014-08-19). The cliff top retreat vector product is called 'upper_cliff_optical'. Results: The long-term cliff top retreat derived from optical satellite data are 35 m cliff retreat within 4 years. The higher-temporal resolution SAR data equivalently show long-term rates of 18 m within 2 years and nearly now degradation activities in winter but maximum erosion rates in summer months.The Intra-seasonal cliff top retreat lines from 2014 show a rate of 2 to 3 m per month.

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Stable isotope and ice-rafted debris records from three core sites in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (IODP Site U1313, MD01-2446, MD03-2699) are combined with records of ODP Sites 1056/1058 and 980 to reconstruct hydrographic conditions during the middle Pleistocene spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9-14 (300-540 ka). Core MD03-2699 is the first high-resolution mid-Brunhes record from the North Atlantic's eastern boundary upwelling system covering the complete MIS 11c interval and MIS 13. The array of sites reflect western and eastern basin boundary current as well as north to south transect sampling of subpolar and transitional water masses and allow the reconstruction of transport pathways in the upper limb of the North Atlantic's circulation. Hydrographic conditions in the surface and deep ocean during peak interglacial MIS 9 and 11 were similar among all the sites with relative stable conditions and confirm prolonged warmth during MIS 11c also for the mid-latitudes. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions further reveal that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic MIS 11c is associated with two plateaus, the younger one of which is slightly warmer. Enhanced subsurface northward heat transport in the eastern boundary current system, especially during early MIS 11c, is denoted by the presence of tropical planktic foraminifer species and raises the question how strongly it impacted the Portuguese upwelling system. Deep water ventilation at the onset of MIS 11c significantly preceded surface water ventilation. Although MIS 13 was generally colder and more variable than the younger interglacials the surface water circulation scheme was the same. The greatest differences between the sites existed during the glacial inceptions and glacials. Then a north - south trending hydrographic front separated the nearshore and offshore waters off Portugal. While offshore waters originated from the North Atlantic Current as indicated by the similarities between the records of IODP Site U1313, ODP Site 980 and MD01-2446, nearshore waters as recorded in core MD03-2699 derived from the Azores Current and thus the subtropical gyre. Except for MIS 12, Azores Current influence seems to be related to eastern boundary system dynamics and not to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

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We conducted a six-week investigation of the sea ice inorganic carbon system during the winter-spring transition in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Samples for the determination of sea ice geochemistry were collected in conjunction with physical and biological parameters as part of the 2010 Arctic-ICE (Arctic - Ice-Covered Ecosystem in a Rapidly Changing Environment) program, a sea ice-based process study in Resolute Passage, Nunavut. The goal of Arctic-ICE was to determine the physical-biological processes controlling the timing of primary production in Arctic landfast sea ice and to better understand the influence of these processes on the drawdown and release of climatically active gases. The field study was conducted from 1 May to 21 June, 2010.

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Although the climate development over the Holocene in the Northern Hemisphere is well known, palaeolimnological climate reconstructions reveal spatiotemporal variability in northern Eurasia. Here we present a multi-proxy study from north-eastern Siberia combining sediment geochemistry, and diatom and pollen data from lake-sediment cores covering the last 38,000 cal. years. Our results show major changes in pyrite content and fragilarioid diatom species distributions, indicating prolonged seasonal lake-ice cover between ~13,500 and ~8,900 cal. years BP and possibly during the 8,200 cal. years BP cold event. A pollen-based climate reconstruction generated a mean July temperature of 17.8°C during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) between ~8,900 and ~4,500 cal. years BP. Naviculoid diatoms appear in the late Holocene indicating a shortening of the seasonal ice cover that continues today. Our results reveal a strong correlation between the applied terrestrial and aquatic indicators and natural seasonal climate dynamics in the Holocene. Planktonic diatoms show a strong response to changes in the lake ecosystem due to recent climate warming in the Anthropocene. We assess other palaeolimnological studies to infer the spatiotemporal pattern of the HTM and affirm that the timing of its onset, a difference of up to 3,000 years from north to south, can be well explained by climatic teleconnections. The westerlies brought cold air to this part of Siberia until the Laurentide ice-sheet vanished 7,000 years ago. The apparent delayed ending of the HTM in the central Siberian record can be ascribed to the exceedance of ecological thresholds trailing behind increases in winter temperatures and decreases in contrast in insolation between seasons during the mid to late Holocene as well as lacking differentiation between summer and winter trends in paleolimnological reconstructions.

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Subgrid processes occur in various ecosystems and landscapes but, because of their small scale, they are not represented or poorly parameterized in climate models. These local heterogeneities are often important or even fundamental for energy and carbon balances. This is especially true for northern peatlands and in particular for the polygonal tundra, where methane emissions are strongly influenced by spatial soil heterogeneities. We present a stochastic model for the surface topography of polygonal tundra using Poisson-Voronoi diagrams and we compare the results with available recent field studies. We analyze seasonal dynamics of water table variations and the landscape response under different scenarios of precipitation income. We upscale methane fluxes by using a simple idealized model for methane emission. Hydraulic interconnectivities and large-scale drainage may also be investigated through percolation properties and thresholds in the Voronoi graph. The model captures the main statistical characteristics of the landscape topography, such as polygon area and surface properties as well as the water balance. This approach enables us to statistically relate large-scale properties of the system to the main small-scale processes within the single polygons.

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Der Müller und die fünf Räuber, Überfall²³

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