(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification,warming,and deoxygenation

Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14ºC and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml·l-1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and protein content, respiration, symbiodinium densities, survivorship of Pocillopora damicornis larvae in a laboratory experiment

Efforts to evaluate the response of coral larvae to global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) typically employ short experiments of fixed length, yet it is unknown how the response is affected by exposure duration. In this study, we exposed larvae from the brooding coral Pocillopora damicornis to contrasts of temperature (24.00 °C [ambient] versus 30.49 °C) and pCO2 (49.4 Pa versus 86.2 Pa) for varying periods (1-5 days) to test the hypothesis that exposure duration had no effect on larval response as assessed by protein content, respiration, Symbiodinium density, and survivorship; exposure times were ecologically relevant compared to representative pelagic larval durations (PLD) for corals. Larvae differed among days for all response variables, and the effects of the treatment were relatively consistent regardless of exposure duration for three of the four response variables. Protein content and Symbiodinium density were unaffected by temperature and pCO2, but respiration increased with temperature (but not pCO2) with the effect intensifying as incubations lengthened. Survival, however, differed significantly among treatments at the end of the study, and by the 5th day, 78% of the larvae were alive and swimming under ambient temperature and ambient pCO2, but only 55-59% were alive in the other treatments. These results demonstrate that the physiological effects of temperature and pCO2 on coral larvae can reliably be detected within days, but effects on survival require > or = 5 days to detect. The detection of time-dependent effects on larval survivorship suggests that the influence of GCC and OA will be stronger for corals having long PLDs.

Physical, biological and chemical characteristics of Canadian and Danish lakes during summer

1. Winter temperatures differ markedly on the Canadian prairies compared with Denmark. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2002, average weekly and monthly temperatures did not drop below 0 °C in the vicinity of Silkeborg, Denmark. Over this same time, weekly average temperatures near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, often dropped below -10 °C for 3-5 weeks and the average monthly temperature was below 0 °C for 2-4 months. Accordingly, winter ice conditions in shallow lakes in Canada and Denmark differed considerably. 2. To assess the implications of winter climate for lake biotic structure and function we compared a number of variables that describe the chemistry and biology of shallow Canadian and Danish lakes that had been chosen to have similar morphometries. 3. The Danish lakes had a fourfold higher ratio of chlorophyll-a: total phosphorus (TP). Zooplankton : phytoplankton carbon was related to TP and fish abundance in Danish lakes but not in Canadian lakes. There was no significant difference in the ratio log total zooplankton biomass : log TP and the Canadian lakes had a significantly higher proportion of cladocerans that were Daphnia. These differences correspond well with the fact that the Danish lakes have more abundant and diverse fish communities than the Canadian lakes. 4. Our results suggest that severe Canadian winters lead to anoxia under ice and more depauperate fish communities, and stronger zooplankton control on phytoplankton in shallow prairie lakes compared with shallow Danish lakes. If climate change leads to warmer winters and a shorter duration of ice cover, we predict that shallow Canadian prairie lakes will experience increased survivorship of planktivores and stronger control of zooplankton. This, in turn, might decrease zooplankton control on phytoplankton, leading to 'greener' lakes on the Canadian prairies.

(Table 1) Reproductive performance of brown skua pairs with and without feeding territories at Potter Peninsula/King George Island from 1998/1999 to 2000/2001

In the maritime Antarctic, brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi) show two foraging strategies: some pairs occupy feeding territories in penguin colonies, while others can only feed in unoccupied areas of a penguin colony without defending a feeding territory. One-third of the studied breeding skua population in the South Shetlands occupied territories of varying size (48 to >3,000 penguin nests) and monopolised 93% of all penguin nests in sub-colonies. Skuas without feeding territories foraged in only 7% of penguin sub-colonies and in part of the main colony. Females owning feeding territories were larger in body size than females without feeding territories; no differences in size were found in males. Territory holders permanently controlled their resources but defence power diminished towards the end of the reproductive season. Territory ownership guaranteed sufficient food supply and led to a 5.5 days earlier egg-laying and chick-hatching. Short distances between nest and foraging site allowed territorial pairs a higher nest-attendance rate such that their chicks survived better (71%) than chicks from skua pairs without feeding territories (45%). Due to lower hatching success in territorial pairs, no difference in breeding success of pairs with and without feeding territories was found in 3 years. We conclude that skuas owning feeding territories in penguin colonies benefit from the predictable and stable food resource by an earlier termination of the annual breeding cycle and higher offspring survivorship.

Rates of seropositivity for Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in polar bears and marine mammals around Svalbard

Little is known about the prevalence of the parasite Toxoplasma gondii in the arctic marine food chain of Svalbard, Norway. In this study, plasma samples were analyzed for T. gondii antibodies using a direct agglutination test. Antibody prevalence was 45.6% among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 18.7% among ringed seals (Pusa hispida) and 66.7% among adult bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) from Svalbard, but no sign of antibodies were found in bearded seal pups, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), white whales (Delphinapterus leucas) or narwhals (Monodon monoceros) from the same area. Prevalence was significantly higher in male polar bears (52.3%) compared with females (39.3%), likely due to dietary differences between the sexes. Compared to an earlier study, T. gondii prevalence in polar bears has doubled in the past decade. Consistently, an earlier study on ringed seals did not detect T. gondii. The high recent prevalence in polar bears, ringed seals and bearded seals could be caused by an increase in the number or survivorship of oocysts being transported via the North Atlantic Current to Svalbard from southern latitudes. Warmer water temperatures have led to influxes of temperate marine invertebrate filter-feeders that could be vectors for oocysts and warmer water is also likely to favour higher survivorship of oocycts. However, a more diverse than normal array of migratory birds in the Archipelago recently, as well as a marked increase in cruise-ship and other human traffic are also potential sources of T. gondii.

Signals of resilience to ocean change: high thermal tolerance of early stage Antarctic sea urchins (Sterechinus neumayeri) reared under present-day and future pCO2 and temperature

We tested the hypothesis that development of the Antarctic urchin Sterechinus neumayeri under future ocean conditions of warming and acidification would incur physiological costs, reducing the tolerance of a secondary stressor. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) quantify current austral spring temperature and pH near sea urchin habitat at Cape Evans in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica and (2) spawn S. neumayeri in the laboratory and raise early developmental stages (EDSs) under ambient (-0.7 °C; 400 µatm pCO2) and future (+2.6 °C; 650 and 1,000 µatm pCO2) ocean conditions and expose four EDSs (blastula, gastrula, prism, and 4-arm echinopluteus) to a one hour acute heat stress and assess survivorship. Results of field data from 2011 to 2012 show extremely stable inter-annual pH conditions ranging from 7.99 to 8.08, suggesting that future ocean acidification will drastically alter the pH-seascape for S. neumayeri. In the laboratory, S. neumayeri EDSs appear to be tolerant of temperatures and pCO2 levels above their current habitat conditions. EDSs survived acute heat exposures >20 °C above habitat temperatures of -1.9 °C. No pCO2 effect was observed for EDSs reared at -0.7 °C. When reared at +2.6 °C, small but significant pCO2 effects were observed at the blastula and prism stage, suggesting that multiple stressors are more detrimental than single stressors. While surprisingly tolerant overall, blastulae were the most sensitive stage to ocean warming and acidification. We conclude that S. neumayeri may be unexpectedly physiologically tolerant of future ocean conditions.

CO2-driven ocean acidification alters and weakens integrity of the calcareous tubes produced by the serpulid tubeworm, Hydroides elegans

As a consequence of anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification (OA), coastal waters are becoming increasingly challenging for calcifiers due to reductions in saturation states of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) minerals. The response of calcification rate is one of the most frequently investigated symptoms of OA. However, OA may also result in poor quality calcareous products through impaired calcification processes despite there being no observed change in calcification rate. The mineralogy and ultrastructure of the calcareous products under OA conditions may be altered, resulting in changes to the mechanical properties of calcified structures. Here, the warm water biofouling tubeworm, Hydroides elegans, was reared from larva to early juvenile stage at the aragonite saturation state (Omega A) for the current pCO2 level (ambient) and those predicted for the years 2050, 2100 and 2300. Composition, ultrastructure and mechanical strength of the calcareous tubes produced by those early juvenile tubeworms were examined using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and nanoindentation. Juvenile tubes were composed primarily of the highly soluble CaCO3 mineral form, aragonite. Tubes produced in seawater with aragonite saturation states near or below one had significantly higher proportions of the crystalline precursor, amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) and the calcite/aragonite ratio dramatically increased. These alterations in tube mineralogy resulted in a holistic deterioration of the tube hardness and elasticity. Thus, in conditions where Omega A is near or below one, the aragonite-producing juvenile tubeworms may no longer be able to maintain the integrity of their calcification products, and may result in reduced survivorship due to the weakened tube protection.

Interactions among chronic and acute impacts on coral recruits: the importance of size-escape thresholds

Newly settled recruits typically suffer high mortality from disturbances, but rapid growth reduces their mortality once size-escape thresholds are attained. Ocean acidification (OA) reduces the growth of recruiting benthic invertebrates, yet no direct effects on survivorship have been demonstrated. We tested whether the reduced growth of coral recruits caused by OA would increase their mortality by prolonging their vulnerability to an acute disturbance: fish herbivory on surrounding algal turf. After two months' growth in ambient or elevated CO2 levels, the linear extension and calcification of coral (Acropora millepora) recruits decreased as CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) increased. When recruits were subjected to incidental fish grazing, their mortality was inversely size dependent. However, we also found an additive effect of pCO2 such that recruit mortality was higher under elevated pCO2 irrespective of size. Compared to ambient conditions, coral recruits needed to double their size at the highest pCO2 to escape incidental grazing mortality. This general trend was observed with three groups of predators (blenny, surgeonfish, and parrotfish), although the magnitude of the fish treatment varied among species. Our study demonstrates the importance of size-escape thresholds in early recruit survival and how OA can shift these thresholds, potentially intensifying population bottlenecks in benthic invertebrate recruitment.

Combined effects of coral reef foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis and Heterostegina depressa in a multi-fractorial experiment

Warming and changes in ocean carbonate chemistry alter marine coastal ecosystems at an accelerating pace. The interaction between these stressors has been the subject of recent studies on reef organisms such as corals, bryozoa, molluscs, and crustose coralline algae. Here we investigated the combined effects of elevated sea surface temperatures and pCO2 on two species of photosymbiont-bearing coral reef Foraminifera: Heterostegina depressa (hosting diatoms) and Marginopora vertebralis (hosting dinoflagellates). The effects of single and combined stressors were studied by monitoring survivorship, growth, and physiological parameters, such as respiration, photochemistry (pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry and oxygen production), and chl a content. Specimens were exposed in flow-through aquaria for up to seven weeks to combinations of two pCO2 (~790 and ~490 µatm) and two temperature (28 and 31 °C) regimes. Elevated temperature had negative effects on the physiology of both species. Elevated pCO2 had negative effects on growth and apparent photosynthetic rate in H.depressa but a positive effect on effective quantum yield. With increasing pCO2, chl a content decreased in H. depressa and increased in M. vertebralis. The strongest stress responses were observed when the two stressors acted in combination. An interaction term was statistically significant in half of the measured parameters. Further exploration revealed that 75 % of these cases showed a synergistic (= larger than additive) interaction between the two stressors. These results indicate that negative physiological effects on photosymbiont-bearing coral reef Foraminifera are likely to be stronger under simultaneous acidification and temperature rise than what would be expected from the effect of each of the stressors individually.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and survival of mollusks: Mercenaria mercenaria, Argopecten irradians, and Crassostrea virginica during experiments, 2009

We present experiments that examined the metamorphosis, growth, and survivorship of larvae from three species of commercially and ecologically valuable shellfish (Mercenaria mercenaria, Argopecten irradians, and Crassostrea virginica) at the levels of CO2 projected to occur during the 21st century and beyond. Under CO2 concentrations estimated to occur later this century (~66 Pa, 650 ppm), M. mercenaria and A. irradians larvae exhibited dramatic declines (>50%) in survivorship as well as significantly delayed metamorphosis and significantly smaller sizes. Although C. virginica larvae also experienced lowered growth and delayed metamorphosis at ~66 Pa CO2, their survival was only diminished at ~152 Pa CO2. The extreme sensitivity of larval stages of shellfish to enhanced levels of CO2 indicates that current and future increases in pelagic CO2 concentrations may deplete or alter the composition of shellfish populations in coastal ecosystems.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification and survival of coral recruits in a laboratory experiment

Manipulative studies have demonstrated that ocean acidification (OA) is a threat to coral reefs, yet no experiments have employed diurnal variations in pCO2 that are ecologically relevant to many shallow reefs. Two experiments were conducted to test the response of coral recruits (less than 6 days old) to diurnally oscillating pCO2; one exposing recruits for 3 days to ambient (440 µatm), high (663 µatm) and diurnally oscillating pCO2 on a natural phase (420-596 µatm), and another exposing recruits for 6 days to ambient (456 µatm), high (837 µatm) and diurnally oscillating pCO2 on either a natural or a reverse phase (448-845 µatm). In experiment I, recruits exposed to natural-phased diurnally oscillating pCO2 grew 6-19% larger than those in ambient or high pCO2. In experiment II, recruits in both high and natural-phased diurnally oscillating pCO2 grew 16 per cent larger than those at ambient pCO2, and this was accompanied by 13-18% higher survivorship; the stimulatory effect on growth of oscillatory pCO2 was diminished by administering high pCO2 during the day (i.e. reverse-phased). These results demonstrate that coral recruits can benefit from ecologically relevant fluctuations in pCO2 and we hypothesize that the mechanism underlying this response is highly pCO2-mediated, night-time storage of dissolved inorganic carbon that fuels daytime calcification.

Experimental data on photophysiology and growth rates of the invasive foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera showing high thermal tolerance from the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of Aqaba

Invasive species allow an investigation of trait retention and adaptations after exposure to new habitats. Recent work on corals from the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) shows that tolerance to high temperature persists thousands of years after invasion, without any apparent adaptive advantage. Here we test whether thermal tolerance retention also occurs in another symbiont-bearing calcifying organism. To this end, we investigate the thermal tolerance of the benthic foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera from the GoA (29° 30.14167 N 34° 55.085 E) and compare it to a recent "Lessepsian invader population" from the Eastern Mediterranean (EaM) (32° 37.386 N, 34°55.169 E). We first established that the studied populations are genetically homogenous but distinct from a population in Australia, and that they contain a similar consortium of diatom symbionts, confirming their recent common descent. Thereafter, we exposed specimens from GoA and EaM to elevated temperatures for three weeks and monitored survivorship, growth rates and photophysiology. Both populations exhibited a similar pattern of temperature tolerance. A consistent reduction of photosynthetic dark yields was observed at 34°C and reduced growth was observed at 32°C. The apparent tolerance to sustained exposure to high temperature cannot have a direct adaptive importance, as peak summer temperatures in both locations remain <32°C. Instead, it seems that in the studied foraminifera tolerance to high temperature is a conservative trait and the EaM population retained this trait since its recent invasion. Such pre-adaptation to higher temperatures confers A. lobifera a clear adaptive advantage in shallow and episodically high temperature environments in the Mediterranean under further warming.