Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

AMS and EBSD maps of rock salt - lamprophyre dyke contact zone, Loule diapir, Algarve basin, Portugal

A rock salt-lamprophyre dyke contact zone (sub-vertical, NE-SW strike) was investigated for its petrographic, mechanic and physical properties by means of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and rock magnetic properties, coupled with quantitative microstructural analysis and thermal mathematical modelling. The quantitative microstructural analysis of halite texture and solid inclusions revealed good spatial correlation with AMS and halite fabrics. The fabrics of both lamprophyre and rock salt record the magmatic intrusion, "plastic" flow and regional deformation (characterized by a NW-SE trending steep foliation). AMS and microstructural analysis revealed two deformation fabrics in the rock salt: (1) the deformation fabrics in rock salt on the NW side of the dyke are associated with high temperature and high fluid activity attributed to the dyke emplacement; (2) On the opposite side of the dyke, the emplacement-related fabric is reworked by localized tectonic deformation. The paleomagnetic results suggest significant rotation of the whole dyke, probably during the diapir ascent and/or the regional Tertiary to Quaternary deformation.