Simulated climatically disturbed emergence of agricultures in Western Eurasia 8500-3000 BC

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by rapid climatic shifts? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the inclusion of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.

Simulated agricultural subsistence, timing of transition, and percentage of immigrant farmers

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Travel time and speed of gray whales and amphipod abundance along Chukotka Peninsula in 2006

The purpose of this study was to evaluate summer and fall residency and habitat selection by gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, together with the biomass of benthic amphipod prey on the coastal feeding grounds along the Chukotka Peninsula. Thirteen gray whales were instrumented with satellite transmitters in September 2006 near the Chukotka Peninsula, Russia. Nine transmitters provided positions from whales for up to 81 days. The whales travelled within 5 km of the Chukotka coast for most of the period they were tracked with only occasional movements offshore. The average daily travel speeds were 23 km/day (range 9-53 km/day). Four of the whales had daily average travel speeds <1 km/day suggesting strong fidelity to the study area. The area containing 95% of the locations for individual whales during biweekly periods was on average 13,027 km**2 (range 7,097-15,896 km**2). More than 65% of all locations were in water <30 m, and between 45 and 70% of biweekly kernel home ranges were located in depths between 31 and 50 m. Benthic density of amphipods within the Bering Strait at depths <50 m was on average ~54 g wet wt/m**2 in 2006. It is likely that the abundant benthic biomass is more than sufficient forage to support the current gray whale population. The use of satellite telemetry in this study quantifies space use and movement patterns of gray whales along the Chukotka coast and identifies key feeding areas.

Atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological polar motion excitation mechanisms based on a combination of geometric and gravimetric space observations

The goal of our study is to determine accurate time series of geophysical Earth rotation excitations to learn more about global dynamic processes in the Earth system. For this purpose, we developed an adjustment model which allows to combine precise observations from space geodetic observation systems, such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Doppler Orbit determination and Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite (DORIS), satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry in order to separate geophysical excitation mechanisms of Earth rotation. Three polar motion time series are applied to derive the polar motion excitation functions (integral effect). Furthermore we use five time variable gravity field solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine not only the integral mass effect but also the oceanic and hydrological mass effects by applying suitable filter techniques and a land-ocean mask. For comparison the integral mass effect is also derived from degree 2 potential coefficients that are estimated from SLR observations. The oceanic mass effect is also determined from sea level anomalies observed by satellite altimetry by reducing the steric sea level anomalies derived from temperature and salinity fields of the oceans. Due to the combination of all geodetic estimated excitations the weaknesses of the individual processing strategies can be reduced and the technique-specific strengths can be accounted for. The formal errors of the adjusted geodetic solutions are smaller than the RMS differences of the geophysical model solutions. The improved excitation time series can be used to improve the geophysical modeling.

(Tables 1,2) Tracking records and space use statistics of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Storfjorden, Svalbard

Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, making it vital to understand the importance of different types of sea ice for ice-dependent species such as polar bears Ursus maritimus. In this study we used GPS telemetry (25 polar bear tracks obtained in Svalbard, Norway, during spring) and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sea-ice data to investigate fine-scale space use by female polar bears. Space use patterns differed according to reproductive state; females with cubs of the year (COYs) had smaller home ranges and used fast-ice areas more frequently than lone females. First-passage time (FPT) analysis revealed that females with COYs displayed significantly longer FPTs near (<10 km) glacier fronts than in other fast-ice areas; lone females also increased their FPTs in such areas, but they also frequently used drifting pack ice. These results clearly demonstrate the importance of fast-ice areas, in particular close to glacier fronts, especially for females with COYs. Access to abundant and predictable prey (ringed seal pups), energy conservation and reluctance to cross large open water areas are possible reasons for the observed patterns. However, glacier fronts are retracting in Svalbard, and declines in land-fast ice have been notable over the past decade. The eventual disappearance of these important habitats might become critical for the survival of polar bear cubs in Svalbard and other regions with similar habitat characteristics. Given the relatively small size of many fast-ice areas in Svalbard, the results observed in this study would not have been revealed using less accurate location data or lower-resolution sea-ice data.

Dissolved aluminium measured on water bottle samples during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXII/2 (SPACE)

Concentrations of dissolved (0.2 µm filtered) aluminium (Al) have been determined for the first time in the Eurasian part of the Arctic Ocean over the entire water column during expedition ARK XXII/2 aboard R.V. Polarstern (2007). An unprecedented number of 666 samples was analysed for 44 stations along 5 ocean transects. Dissolved Al in surface layer water (SLW) was very low, close to 1 nM, with lowest SLW concentrations towards the Canadian part of the Arctic Ocean and higher values adjacent to and in the shelf seas. The low SLW concentrations indicate no or little influence from aeolian dust input. Dissolved Al showed a nutrient-type increase with depth up to 28 nM, but large differences existed between the different deep Arctic basins. The differences in concentrations of Al between water masses and basins could largely be related to the different origins of the water masses. In the SLW and intermediate water layers, Atlantic and Pacific inflows were of importance. Deep shelf convection appeared to influence the Al distribution in the deep Eurasian Basin. The Al distribution of the deep Makarov Basin provides evidence for Eurasian Basin water inflow into the deep Makarov Basin. A strong correlation between Al and Silicon (Si) was observed in all basins. This correlation and the nutrient-like profile indicate a strong biological influence on the cycling and distribution of Al. The biological influence can be direct by the incorporation of Al in biogenic silica, indirect by preferential scavenging of Al onto biogenic siliceous particles, or by a combination of both processes. From the slope of the overall Al-Si relationship in the intermediate water layer (AIDW; ~ 200-2000 m depth), an Al/Si ratio of 2.2 atoms Al per 1000 atoms Si was derived. This ratio is consistent with the range of previously reported Al/Si uptake ratio in biogenic opal frustules of diatoms. In the deepest waters (>2000 m depth) a steeper slope of the Al-Si relationship of 7.4 to 13 atoms Al per 1000 atoms Si likely results from entrainment of cold shelf water into the deep basins, carrying the signal of dissolution of terrigenous particles with a much higher Al:Si ratio of crustal abundance. Only a small enrichment with such crustal Al and Si component may readily account for the higher Al:Si slope in the deepest waters.

Barium measured on water bottle samples during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXII/2 (SPACE)

Dissolved barium has been shown to have the potential to distinguish Eurasian from North American (NA) river runoff. As part of the ARK-XXII/2 Polarstern expedition in summer 2007, Ba was analyzed in the Barents, Kara, Laptev seas, and the Eurasian Basins as well as the Makarov Basin up to the Alpha and Mendeleyev Ridges. By combining salinity, d18O and initial phosphate corrected for mineralization with oxygen (PO4*) or N/P ratios we identified the water mass fractions of meteoric water, sea ice meltwater, and marine waters of Atlantic as well as Pacific origin in the upper water column. In all basins inside the lower halocline layer and the Arctic intermediate waters we find Ba concentrations close to those of the Fram Strait branch of the lower halocline (41-45 nM), reflecting the composition of the incoming Atlantic water. A layer of upper halocline water (UHW) with higher Ba concentrations (45-55 nM) is identified in the Makarov Basin. Atop of the UHW, the Surface Mixed Layer (SML), including the summer and winter mixed layers, has high concentrations of Ba (58-67 nM). In the SML of the investigated area of the central Arctic the meteoric fraction can be identified by assuming a conservative behavior of Ba to be primarily of Eurasian river origin. However, in productive coastal regions biological removal compromises the use of Ba to distinguish between Eurasian and NA rivers. As a consequence, the NA river water fraction is underestimated in productive surface waters or waters that have passed a productive region, whereas this fraction is overestimated in subsurface waters containing remineralised Ba, particularly when these waters have passed productive shelf regions. Especially in the Laptev Sea and small regions in the Barents Sea, Ba concentrations are low in surface waters. In the Laptev Sea exceptionally high Ba concentrations in shelf bottom waters indicate that Ba is removed from surface waters to deep waters by biological activity enhanced by increasing ice-free conditions as well as by scavenging by organic matter of terrestrial origin. We interpret high Ba concentrations in the UHW of the Makarov Basin to result from enrichment by remineralisation in bottom waters on the shelf of the Chukchi Sea and therefore the calculated NA runoff is an artefact. We conclude that no NA runoff can be demonstrated unequivocally anywhere during our expedition with the set of tracers considered here. Small contributions of NA runoff may have been masked by Ba depletion and could only be resolved by supportive tracers on the uptake history. We thus suggest that Ba has to be used with care as it can put limits but not yield quantitative water mass distributions. Only if the extra Ba inputs exceed the cumulative biological uptake the signal can be unequivocally attributed to NA runoff.