Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

Pollen analyses of sediment core GeoB9508-5

Millennial-scale dry events in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions during the last Glacial period are commonly attributed to southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an intensification of the northeasterly (NE) trade wind system during intervals of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Through the use of high-resolution last deglaciation pollen records from the continental slope off Senegal, our data show that one of the longest and most extreme droughts in the western Sahel history, which occurred during the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), displayed a succession of three major phases. These phases progressed from an interval of maximum pollen representation of Saharan elements between ~19 and 17.4 kyr BP indicating the onset of aridity and intensified NE trade winds, followed by a millennial interlude of reduced input of Saharan pollen and increased input of Sahelian pollen, to a final phase between ~16.2 and 15 kyr BP that was characterized by a second maximum of Saharan pollen abundances. This change in the pollen assemblage indicates a mid-HS1 interlude of NE trade wind relaxation, occurring between two distinct trade wind maxima, along with an intensified mid-tropospheric African Easterly Jet (AEJ) indicating a substantial change in West African atmospheric processes. The pollen data thus suggest that although the NE trades have weakened, the Sahel drought remained severe during this time interval. Therefore, a simple strengthening of trade winds and a southward shift of the West African monsoon trough alone cannot fully explain millennial-scale Sahel droughts during periods of AMOC weakening. Instead, we suggest that an intensification of the AEJ is needed to explain the persistence of the drought during HS1. Simulations with the Community Climate System Model indicate that an intensified AEJ during periods of reduced AMOC affected the North African climate by enhancing moisture divergence over the West African realm, thereby extending the Sahel drought for about 4000 years.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.