2 resultados para sensitivity analyses

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Subtropical Gyres are an important constituent of the ocean-atmosphere system due to their capacity to store vast amounts of warm and saline waters. Here we decipher the sensitivity of the (sub)surface North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre with respect to orbital and millennial scale climate variability between ~140 and 70 ka, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Using (isotope)geochemical proxy data from surface and thermocline dwelling foraminifers from Blake Ridge off the west coast of North America (ODP Site 1058) we show that the oceanographic development at subsurface (thermocline) level is substantially different from the surface ocean. Most notably, surface temperatures and salinities peak during the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) and early MIS 5e, implying that subtropical surface ocean heat and salt accumulation might have resulted from a sluggish northward heat transport. In contrast, maximum thermocline temperatures are reached during late MIS 5e when surface temperatures are already declining. We argue that the subsurface warming originated from intensified Ekman downwelling in the Subtropical Gyre due to enhanced wind stress. During MIS 5a-d a tight interplay of the subtropical upper ocean hydrography to high latitude millennial-scale cold events can be observed. At Blake Ridge, the most pronounced of these high latitude cold events are related to surface warming and salt accumulation in the (sub)surface. Similar to Termination II, heat accumulated in the Subtropical Gyre probably due to a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Additionally, a southward shift and intensification of the subtropical wind belts lead to a decrease of on-site precipitation and enhanced evaporation, coupled to intensified gyre circulation. Subsequently, the northward advection of these warm and saline water likely contributed to the fast resumption of the overturning circulation at the end of these high latitude cold events.

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Our ability to project the impact of global change on marine ecosystem is limited by our poor understanding on how to predict species sensitivity. For example, the impact of ocean acidification is highly species-specific, even in closely related taxa. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the tolerance range of a given species to decreased pH corresponds to their natural range of exposure. Larvae of the green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis were cultured from fertilization to metamorphic competence (29 days) under a wide range of pH (from pHT = 8.0/pCO2 ~ 480 ?atm to pHT = 6.5/pCO2 ~ 20 000 ?atm) covering present (from pHT 8.7 to 7.6), projected near-future variability (from pHT 8.3 to 7.2) and beyond. Decreasing pH impacted all tested parameters (mortality, symmetry, growth, morphometry and respiration). Development of normal, although showing morphological plasticity, swimming larvae was possible as low as pHT >= 7.0. Within that range, decreasing pH increased mortality and asymmetry and decreased body length (BL) growth rate. Larvae raised at lowered pH and with similar BL had shorter arms and a wider body. Relative to a given BL, respiration rates and stomach volume both increased with decreasing pH suggesting changes in energy budget. At the lowest pHs (pHT <= 6.5), all the tested parameters were strongly negatively affected and no larva survived past 13 days post fertilization. In conclusion, sea urchin larvae appeared to be highly plastic when exposed to decreased pH until a physiological tipping point at pHT = 7.0. However, this plasticity was associated with direct (increased mortality) and indirect (decreased growth) consequences for fitness.