5 resultados para semiparametric adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

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Holocene records documenting variations in direction and intensity of the geomagnetic field during the last about seven and a half millennia are presented for Northwest Africa. High resolution paleomagnetic analyses of two marine sediment sequences recovered from around 900 meter water depth on the upper continental slope off Cape Ghir (30°51'N, 10°16'W) were supplemented by magnetic measurements characterizing composition, concentration, grain size and coercivity of the magnetic mineral assemblage. Age control for the high sedimentation rate deposits (~60 cm/kyr) was established by AMS radiocarbon dates. The natural remanent magnetization (NRM) is very predominantly carried by a fine grained, mostly single domain (titano-)magnetite fraction allowing the reliable definition of stable NRM inclinations and declinations from alternating field demagnetization and principal component analysis. Predictions of the Korte and Constable (2005) geomagnetic field model CALS7K.2 for the study area are in fair agreement with the Holocene directional records for the most parts, yet noticeable differences exist in some intervals. The magnetic mineral inventory of the sediments reveals various climate controlled variations, specifically in concentration and grain size. A very strong impact had the mid-Holocene environmental change from humid to arid conditions on the African continent which also clearly affects relative paleointensity (RPI) estimates based on different remanence normalizers. To overcome this problem the pseudo-Thellier RPI technique has been applied. The results represent the first Holocene record of Earth's magnetic field intensity variations in the NW Africa region. It displays long term trends similar to those of model predictions, but also conspicuous millennium scale differences.

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Paleoceanographic archives derived from 17 marine sediment cores reconstruct the response of the Southwest Pacific Ocean to the peak interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (ca. 125?ka). Paleo-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) estimates were obtained from the Random Forest model-an ensemble decision tree tool-applied to core-top planktonic foraminiferal faunas calibrated to modern SSTs. The reconstructed geographic pattern of the SST anomaly (maximum SST between 120 and 132?ka minus mean modern SST) seems to indicate how MIS 5e conditions were generally warmer in the Southwest Pacific, especially in the western Tasman Sea where a strengthened East Australian Current (EAC) likely extended subtropical influence to ca. 45°S off Tasmania. In contrast, the eastern Tasman Sea may have had a modest cooling except around 45°S. The observed pattern resembles that developing under the present warming trend in the region. An increase in wind stress curl over the modern South Pacific is hypothesized to have spun-up the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre, with concurrent increase in subtropical flow in the western boundary currents that include the EAC. However, warmer temperatures along the Subtropical Front and Campbell Plateau to the south suggest that the relative influence of the boundary inflows to eastern New Zealand may have differed in MIS 5e, and these currents may have followed different paths compared to today.

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The nucleonic component of the cosmic rays has been measured by the German research vessel "Meteor" during the Atlantic Expedition IQSY 1965. The pressure corrected intensities fit well the rigidity calculations of Kondo and Kodamo. In this way we confirm the earth's magnetic field model used by these authors. Two positions of the cosmic ray equator have been determined at 29,7 °W (6,5 ± 1) °N and at 19 °W (7 ± 1) °N. These positions agree with the calculated values of Kondo and Kodamo. The total latitude effect of the nucleonic component amounts to 1.74 and 1.76. The measurements were carried out at solar minima activity. Using the values of latitude measurements at maxima solar activity the degree of modulation of the primary cosmic rays was determined in the rigidity range 2 - 13 GV. For rigidity values above 6 GV the modulation remains constant to 20 %.

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In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.