Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Benthic foraminifera and sea level analyses from IODP Hole 310-M0005D

The course of sea-level fluctuations during Termination II (TII; the penultimate deglaciation), which is critical for understanding ice-sheet dynamics and suborbital climate variability, has yet to be established. This is partly because most shallow-water sequences encompassing TII were eroded during sea-level lowstands of the last glacial period or were deposited below the present sea level. Here we report a new sequence recording sea-level changes during TII in the Pleistocene sequence at Hole M0005D (water depth: 59.63 m below sea level [mbsl]) off Tahiti, French Polynesia, which was drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310. Lithofacies variations and stratigraphic changes in the taxonomic composition, preservation states, and intraspecific test morphology of large benthic foraminifers indicate a deepening-upward sequence in the interval from Core 310-M0005D-26R (core depth: 134 mbsl) through -16R (core depth: 106 mbsl). Reconstruction of relative sea levels, based on paleodepth estimations using large benthic foraminifers, indicated a rise in sea level of about 90 m during this interval, suggesting its correlation with one of the terminations. Assuming that this rise in sea level corresponds to that during TII, after correcting for subsidence since the time of deposition, a highstand sea-level position would be 2 ± 15 m above present sea level (masl), which is generally consistent with highstand sea-level positions in MIS 5e (4 ± 2 masl). If this rise in sea level corresponds to that during older terminations, the subsidence-corrected highstand sea-level positions (30 ± 15 masl for Termination III and 54 ± 15 masl for Termination IV) are not consistent with reported ranges of interglacial sea-level highstands (-18 to 15 masl). Therefore, the studied interval likely records the rise in sea level and associated environmental changes during TII. In particular, the intervening cored materials between the two episodes of sea-level rise found in the studied interval might record the sea-level reversal event during TII. This conclusion is consistent with U/Th ages of around 133 ka, which were obtained from slightly diagenetically altered (i.e., < 1% calcite) in situ corals in the studied interval (Core 310-M0005D-20R [core depth: 118 mbsl]). This study also suggests that our inverse approach to correlate a stratigraphic interval with an approximate time frame could be useful as an independent check on the accuracy of uranium-series dating, which has been applied extensively to fossil corals in late Quaternary sea-level studies.