6 resultados para scenarios - future development - Estonia

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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To project the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in permafrost environments, the spatial and vertical distribution of key soil properties and their landscape controls needs to be understood. This article reports findings from the Arctic Lena River Delta where we sampled 50 soil pedons. These were classified according to the U.S.D.A. Soil Taxonomy and fall mostly into the Gelisol soil order used for permafrost-affected soils. Soil profiles have been sampled for the active layer (mean depth 58±10 cm) and the upper permafrost to one meter depth. We analyze SOC stocks and key soil properties, i.e. C%, N%, C/N, bulk density, visible ice and water content. These are compared for different landscape groupings of pedons according to geomorphology, soil and land cover and for different vertical depth increments. High vertical resolution plots are used to understand soil development. These show that SOC storage can be highly variable with depth. We recommend the treatment of permafrost-affected soils according to subdivisions into: the surface organic layer, mineral subsoil in the active layer, organic enriched cryoturbated or buried horizons and the mineral subsoil in the permafrost. The major geomorphological units of a subregion of the Lena River Delta were mapped with a land form classification using a data-fusion approach of optical satellite imagery and digital elevation data to upscale SOC storage. Landscape mean SOC storage is estimated to 19.2±2.0 kg C/m**2. Our results show that the geomorphological setting explains more soil variability than soil taxonomy classes or vegetation cover. The soils from the oldest, Pleistocene aged, unit of the delta store the highest amount of SOC per m**2 followed by the Holocene river terrace. The Pleistocene terrace affected by thermal-degradation, the recent floodplain and bare alluvial sediments store considerably less SOC in descending order.

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Individual planktonic microfossil species, or assemblage groups of different species, are often used to, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, reconstruct past (sub)surface-water conditions of the world's oceans and seas. Until now, little information has been available on the surface sediment distribution patterns and paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential of coccolith, calcareous dinoflagellate cyst and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages of the South and equatorial Atlantic, especially at the species level. This paper (i) summarizes the distributions of these three phytoplanktonic microfossil groups in numerous Atlantic surface sediments from 20°N-50°S and 30°E-65°W and determines their relationship with the physicochemical and trophic conditions of the overlying (sub)surface-waters, and (ii) determines the synecology of the three phytoplankton groups by carrying out statistical analyses (i.e. detrended and canonical correspondence analyses) on all groups simultaneously. Ecological relationships are additionally strengthened by statistically comparing the distribution patterns of the phytoplankton groups with those of planktonic foraminifera (Pflaumann et al. 1996; Niebler et al. 1998), as the ecological preferences of the latter are much better known. Many of the analyzed phytoplanktonic microfossil species or groups of species in the surface sediments do show restricted distributions which primarily reflect the environmental conditions of the upper water masses above them (e.g. sea-surface temperature, productivity, stratification). The acquired 'reference' data sets are large and diverse enough to allow future development of transfer functions for the reconstruction of past surface-water conditions, and show that there is still an enormous paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential concealed in many fossil coccolith and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages.

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Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases seawater pH in a phenomenon known as ocean acidification. In two separate experiments we found that larval development of the barnacle Amphibalanus (Balanus) improvisus was not significantly affected by the level of reduced pH that has been projected for the next 150 years. After 3 and 6 days of incubation, we found no consistent effects of reduced pH on developmental speed or larval size at pH 7.8 compared with the control pH of 8.1. After 10 days of incubation, there were no net changes in survival or overall development of larvae raised at pH 7.8 or 7.6 compared with the control pH of 8.0. In all cases, however, there was significant variation in responses between replicate batches (parental genotypes) of larvae, with some batches responding positively to reduced pH. Our results suggest that the non-calcifying larval stages of A. improvisus are generally tolerant to near-future levels of ocean acidification. This result is in line with findings for other barnacle species and suggests that barnacles do not show the greater sensitivity to ocean acidification in early life history reported for other invertebrate species. Substantial genetic variability in response to low pH may confer adaptive benefits under future ocean acidification.

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This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

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The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.