Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

(Supplement Table S2) Results of 230Th/U-dating

We compared the suitability of two skeletal materials of the Atlantic brain coral Diploria strigosa for 230Th/U-dating: the commonly used bulk material comprising all skeletal elements and the denser theca wall material. Eight fossil corals of presumably Last Interglacial age from Bonaire, southern Caribbean Sea, were investigated, and several sub-samples were dated from each coral. For four corals, both the ages and the activity ratios of the bulk material and theca wall agree within uncertainty. Three corals show significantly older ages for their bulk material than for their theca wall material as well as substantially elevated 232Th content and (230Th/238U) ratios. The bulk material samples of another coral show younger ages and lower (230Th/238U) ratios than the corresponding theca wall samples. This coral also contains a considerable amount of 232Th. The application of the available open-system models developed to account for post-depositional diagenetic effects in corals shows that none of the models can successfully be applied to the Bonaire corals. The most likely explanation for this observation is that the assumptions of the models are not fulfilled by our data set. Comparison of the theca wall and bulk material data enables us to obtain information about the open-system processes that affected the corals. The corals showing apparently older ages for their bulk material were probably affected by contamination with a secondary (detrital) phase. The most likely source of the detrital material is carbonate sand. The higher (230Th/232Th) ratio of this material implies that detrital contamination would have a much stronger impact on the ages than a contaminant with a bulk Earth (230Th/232Th) ratio and that the threshold for the commonly applied 232Th reliability criterion would be much lower than the generally used value of 1 ng g^-1. The coral showing apparently younger ages for its bulk material was probably influenced by more than one diagenetic process. A potential scenario is a combination of detrital contamination and U addition by secondary pore infillings. Our results show that the dense theca wall material of D. strigosa is generally less affected by post-depositional open-system behaviour and better suited for 230Th/U-dating than the bulk material. This is also obvious from the fact that all ages of theca wall material reflect a Last Interglacial origin (~125 ka), whereas the bulk material samples are either substantially older or younger. However, for some corals, the 230Th/U-ages and activity ratios of the bulk material and the theca wall samples are similar. This shows that strictly reliable 230Th/U-ages can also be obtained from bulk material samples of exceptionally well-preserved corals. However, the bulk material samples more frequently show elevated activity ratios and ages than the corresponding theca wall samples. Our findings should be generally applicable to brain corals (Mussidae) that are found in tropical oceans worldwide and may enable reliable 230Th/U-dating of fossil corals with similar skeletal architecture, even if their bulk skeleton is altered by diagenesis. The 230Th/U-ages we consider reliable (120-130 ka), along with a recently published age of 118 ka, provide the first comprehensive dating of the elevated lower reef terrace at Bonaire (118-130 ka), which is in agreement in timing and duration with other Last Interglacial records.

Global LAI uncertainty and relative uncertainty datasets derived from a Triple Collocation Error Model (TCEM)

Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

The Antarctic ice core chronology (AICC2012)

Abstract of Bazin et al. (2013): An accurate and coherent chronological framework is essential for the interpretation of climatic and environmental records obtained from deep polar ice cores. Until now, one common ice core age scale had been developed based on an inverse dating method (Datice), combining glaciological modelling with absolute and stratigraphic markers between 4 ice cores covering the last 50 ka (thousands of years before present) (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010). In this paper, together with the companion paper of Veres et al. (2013), we present an extension of this work back to 800 ka for the NGRIP, TALDICE, EDML, Vostok and EDC ice cores using an improved version of the Datice tool. The AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012) chronology includes numerous new gas and ice stratigraphic links as well as improved evaluation of background and associated variance scenarios. This paper concentrates on the long timescales between 120-800 ka. In this framework, new measurements of d18Oatm over Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11-12 on EDC and a complete d18Oatm record of the TALDICE ice cores permit us to derive additional orbital gas age constraints. The coherency of the different orbitally deduced ages (from d18Oatm, dO2/N2 and air content) has been verified before implementation in AICC2012. The new chronology is now independent of other archives and shows only small differences, most of the time within the original uncertainty range calculated by Datice, when compared with the previous ice core reference age scale EDC3, the Dome F chronology, or using a comparison between speleothems and methane. For instance, the largest deviation between AICC2012 and EDC3 (5.4 ka) is obtained around MIS 12. Despite significant modifications of the chronological constraints around MIS 5, now independent of speleothem records in AICC2012, the date of Termination II is very close to the EDC3 one. Abstract of Veres et al. (2013): The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. However, temporal divergences reaching up to several thousand years (ka) exist between ice cores over the last climatic cycle. In this context, we are hereby introducing the Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012 (AICC2012), a new and coherent timescale developed for four Antarctic ice cores, namely Vostok, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and Talos Dome (TALDICE), alongside the Greenlandic NGRIP record. The AICC2012 timescale has been constructed using the Bayesian tool Datice (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) that combines glaciological inputs and data constraints, including a wide range of relative and absolute gas and ice stratigraphic markers. We focus here on the last 120 ka, whereas the companion paper by Bazin et al. (2013) focuses on the interval 120-800 ka. Compared to previous timescales, AICC2012 presents an improved timing for the last glacial inception, respecting the glaciological constraints of all analyzed records. Moreover, with the addition of numerous new stratigraphic markers and improved calculation of the lock-in depth (LID) based on d15N data employed as the Datice background scenario, the AICC2012 presents a slightly improved timing for the bipolar sequence of events over Marine Isotope Stage 3 associated with the seesaw mechanism, with maximum differences of about 600 yr with respect to the previous Datice-derived chronology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), hereafter denoted LD2010. Our improved scenario confirms the regional differences for the millennial scale variability over the last glacial period: while the EDC isotopic record (events of triangular shape) displays peaks roughly at the same time as the NGRIP abrupt isotopic increases, the EDML isotopic record (events characterized by broader peaks or even extended periods of high isotope values) reached the isotopic maximum several centuries before. It is expected that the future contribution of both other long ice core records and other types of chronological constraints to the Datice tool will lead to further refinements in the ice core chronologies beyond the AICC2012 chronology. For the time being however, we recommend that AICC2012 be used as the preferred chronology for the Vostok, EDC, EDML and TALDICE ice core records, both over the last glacial cycle (this study), and beyond (following Bazin et al., 2013). The ages for NGRIP in AICC2012 are virtually identical to those of GICC05 for the last 60.2 ka, whereas the ages beyond are independent of those in GICC05modelext (as in the construction of AICC2012, the GICC05modelext was included only via the background scenarios and not as age markers). As such, where issues of phasing between Antarctic records included in AICC2012 and NGRIP are involved, the NGRIP ages in AICC2012 should therefore be taken to avoid introducing false offsets. However for issues involving only Greenland ice cores, there is not yet a strong basis to recommend superseding GICC05modelext as the recommended age scale for Greenland ice cores.

Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.