Stable isotope analysis and temperature reconstruction data from DSDP Hole 94-609B and ODP Hole 162-984B

The Greenland ice sheet is accepted as a key factor controlling the Quaternary glacial scenario. However, the origin and mechanisms of major Arctic glaciation starting at 3.15 Ma and culminating at 2.74 Ma are still controversial. For this phase of intense cooling Ravelo et al. proposed a complex gradual forcing mechanism. In contrast, our new submillennial-scale paleoceanographic records from the Pliocene North Atlantic suggest a far more precise timing and forcing for the initiation of northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG), since it was linked to a 2-3 °C surface water warming during warm stages from 2.95 to 2.82 Ma. These records support previous models, claiming that the final closure of the Panama Isthmus (3.0- ~2.5 Ma induced an increased poleward salt and heat transport. Associated strengthening of North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and in turn, an intensified moisture supply to northern high latitudes resulted in the build-up of NHG, finally culminating in the great, irreversible climate crash at marine isotope stage G6 (2.74 Ma). In summary, there was a two-step threshold mechanism that marked the onset of NHG with glacial-to-interglacial cycles quasi-persistent until today.

Bulk geochemical analysis and planktonic foraminifera of sediment core GeoB7112-5

A multivariable approach utilising bulk sediment, planktonic Foraminifera and siliceous phytoplankton has been used to reconstruct rapid variations in palaeoproductivity in the Peru-Chile Current System off northern Chile for the past 19000 cal. yr. During the early deglaciation (19000-16000 cal. yr BP), our data point to strongest upwelling intensity and highest productivity of the past 19 000 cal. yr. The late deglaciation (16000-13000 cal. yr BP) is characterised by a major change in the oceanographic setting, warmer water masses and weaker upwelling at the study site. Lowest productivity and weakest upwelling intensity are observed from the early to the middle Holocene (13000-4000 cal. yr BP), and the beginning of the late Holocene (<4000 cal. yr BP) is marked by increasing productivity, mainly driven by silicate-producing organisms. Changes in the productivity and upwelling intensity in our record may have resulted from a large-scale compression and/or displacement of the South Pacific subtropical gyre during more productive periods, in line with a northward extension of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and increased advection of Antarctic water masses with the Peru-Chile Current. The corresponding increase in hemispheric thermal gradient and wind stress induced stronger upwelling. During the periods of lower productivity, this scenario probably reversed.

Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.