19 resultados para repository, process model, version, storage
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.
Resumo:
This salinization simulation enables irrigation salinity, capillary rise, rainfall, leaching, salt mitigation strategies via fallowing, and other functions that are addressed in a coupled social-environment model applied to southern Mesopotamia. The simulation is applied to the Modeling Ancient Settlement Systems Project supported by the University of Chicago, Durham University, and Argonne National Laboratory. The simulation can be used for other regions.
Resumo:
To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.
Resumo:
Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.
Resumo:
The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.
Resumo:
It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
Resumo:
We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.
Resumo:
The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties >1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.
Resumo:
Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by rapid climatic shifts? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the inclusion of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.
Resumo:
Differences in regional responses to climate fluctuations are well documented on short time scales (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), but with the exception of latitudinal temperature gradients, regional patterns are seldom considered in discussions of ancient greenhouse climates. Contrary to the expectation of global warming or global cooling implicit in most treatments of climate evolution over millions of years, this paper shows that the North Atlantic warmed by as much as 6°C (1.5% decrease in d18O values of planktic foraminifera) during the Maastrichtian global cooling interval. We suggest that warming was the result of the importation of heat from the South Atlantic. Decreasing North Atlantic d18O values are also associated with increasing gradients in planktic d13C values, suggesting increasing surface-water stratification and a correlated strengthening of the North Atlantic Polar Front. If correct, this conclusion predicts arctic cooling during the late Maastrichtian. Beyond implications for the Maastrichtian, these data demonstrate that climate does not behave as if there is a simple global thermostat, even on geologic time scales.
Resumo:
The knowledge about processes concerning perception and understanding is of paramount importance for designing means of communication like maps and charts. This is especially the case, if one does not want to lose sight of the map-user and if map-design is to be orientated along the map-users needs and preferences in order to improve the cartographic product's usability. A scientific approach to visualization can help to achieve useable results. The insights achieved by such an approach can lead to modes of visualization that are superior to those, which have seemingly proved their value in praxis - so-called "bestpractices" -, concerning their utility and efficiency. This thesis shows this by using the example of visualizing the limits of bodies of waters in the Southern Ocean. After making some introductorily remarks on the chosen mode of problem-solution in chapter one, which simultaneously illustrate the flow of work while working on the problem, in chapter two the relevant information concerning the drawing of limits in the Southern Ocean is outlined. Chapter 3 builds the theoretical framework, which is a multidisciplinary approach to representation. This theoretical framework is based on "How Maps Work" by the American Cartographer MacEachren (1995/2004). His "scientific approach to visualization" is amended and adjusted by the knowledge gained from recent findings of the social sciences where necessary. So, the approach suggested in this thesis represents a synergy of psychology, sociology, semiotics, linguistics, communication theory and cartography. It follows the tradition of interdisciplinary research getting over the boundaries of a single scientific subject. The achieved holistic approach can help to improve the usability of cartographic products. It illustrates on the one hand those processes taking place while perceiving and recognizing cartographic information - so-called bottom-up-processes. On the other hand it illuminates the processes which happen during understanding this information in so-called top-down-processes. Bottom-up- and top-down-processes are interdependent and inseparably interrelated and therefore cannot be understood without each other. Regarding aspects of usability the approach suggested in this thesis strongly focuses on the map-user. This is the reason why the phenomenon of communication gains more weight than in MacEachren's map-centered approach. Because of this, in chapter 4 a holistic approach to communication is developed. This approach makes clear that only the map-user can evaluate the usability of a cartographic product. Only if he can extract the information relevant for him from the cartographical product, it is really useable. The concept of communication is well suited to conceive that. In case of the visualization of limits of bodies of water in the Southern Ocean, which is not complex enough to illustrate all results of the theoretical considerations, it is suggested to visualize the limits with red lines. This suggestion deviates from the commonly used mode of visualization. So, this thesis shows how theory is able to ameliorate praxis. Chapter 5 leads back to the task of fixing limits of the bodies of water in the area of concern. A convention by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) states that those limits should be drawn by using meridians, parallels, rhumb lines and bathymetric data. Based on the available bathymetric data both a representation and a process model are calculated, which should support the drawing of the limits. The quality of both models, which depends on the quality of the bathymetric data at hand, leads to the decision that the representation model is better suited to support the drawing of limits.
Resumo:
The geological overview map was compiled from 15 geological maps (1 : 25,000) and is based on Jacobs et al. 1996. The topographic basemaps were adapted from unpublished 1:250,000 provisional topographic maps, Institut f. Angewandte Geodäsie, Frankfurt, 1983. Part of the contour lines are from Radarsat (Liu et al. 2001).