Ground beetle (Carabidae) abundance data from north-eastern Australian rainforest, between June 2008 - January 2010, using pitfall traps

Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly positively associated with the historical climatic conditions and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls) and current climatic conditions. Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and current and historical climatic conditions. Our results suggest that distributional patterns of flightless ground beetles are not only likely to be associated with factors that change with elevation (current climatic conditions), but also factors that are independent of elevation (recent disturbance and historical climatic conditions). Variation in historical vegetation stability explained both species richness and assemblage composition patterns, probably reflecting the significance of upland refugia at a geographic time scale. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats are under threat from climate change.

Epiphytic orchid diversity found on trees and shrubs in coffee cultivated Afromontane rainforest, SW Ethiopia

The moist evergreen Afromontane forest of SW Ethiopia has become extremely fragmented and most remnants are intensively managed for cultivation of coffee (Coffea arabica). We investigated the distributions of epiphytic orchids in shade trees and their understory in forests with contrasting management intensity to determine biodiversity losses associated with coffee cultivation and to determine the capacity of coffee shrubs to act as refugia for orchid species. We studied epiphytic orchids in managed forests and natural forests and recorded orchid diversity and abundance in different tree zones of 339 trees and in the understory. Coffee management was associated with a downward shift of orchid species as orchid species were occurring in significantly lower tree zones in managed forest. The number of shrubs in the understory of managed forest was not higher than in natural forests, yet orchid abundance was higher in the understory of managed forests. Local extinctions of epiphytic orchids and species losses in the outer tree zones (a contraction of habitat) in managed forests are most likely driven by losses of large, complex-structured climax trees, and changes in microclimate, respectively. Coffee shrubs and their shade trees in managed forests are shown here to be a suitable habitat for only a limited set of orchid species. As farmers continue to convert natural forest into managed forest for coffee cultivation, further losses of habitat quality and collateral declines in regional epiphytic orchid diversity can be expected. Therefore, the conservation of epiphytic orchid diversity, as well as other components of diversity of the coffee forests, must primarily rely on avoiding coffee management intensification in the remaining natural forest. Convincing farmers to keep forest-climax trees in their coffee forest and to tolerate orchids on their coffee shrubs may also contribute to a more favorable conservation status of orchids in Ethiopian coffee agroecosystems.

Experiment: Physiological responses of the calcifying rhodophyte, Corallina officinalis (L.), to future CO2 levels

Future atmospheric CO2 levels will most likely have complex consequences for marine organisms, particulary photosynthetic calcifying organisms. Corallina officinalis L. is an erect calcifying macroalga found in the inter- and subtidal regions of temperate rocky coastlines and provides important substrate and refugia for marine meiofauna. The main goal of the current study was to determine the physiological responses of C. officinalis to increased CO2 concentrations expected to occur within the next century and beyond. Our results show that growth and production of inorganic material decreased under high CO2 levels, while carbonic anhydrase activity was stimulated and negatively correlated to algal inorganic content. Photosynthetic efficiency based on oxygen evolution was also negatively affected by increased CO2. The results of this study indicate that C. officinalis may become less competitive under future CO2 levels, which could result in structural changes in future temperate intertidal communities.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50-100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals (Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats.

Coral communities exposed to differential large amplitude internal waves cooling and a severe heat stress in 2010 in the Andaman Sea

Tropical scleractinian corals are particularly vulnerable to global warming as elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) disrupt the delicate balance between the coral host and their algal endosymbionts, leading to symbiont expulsion, mass bleaching and mortality. While satellite sensing of SST has proven a good predictor of coral bleaching at the regional scale, there are large deviations in bleaching severity and mortality on the local scale, which are only poorly understood. Here, we show that internal waves play a major role in explaining local coral bleaching and mortality patterns in the Andaman Sea. In spite of a severe region-wide SST anomaly in May 2010, frequent upslope intrusions of cold sub-pycnocline waters due to breaking large amplitude internal waves (LAIW) alleviated heating and mitigated coral bleaching and mortality in shallow LAIW-exposed waters. In LAIW-sheltered waters, by contrast, bleaching susceptible species suffered severe bleaching and total mortality. These findings suggest that LAIW, which are ubiquitous in tropical stratified waters, benefit coral reefs during thermal stress and provide local refugia for bleaching susceptible corals. The swash zones of LAIW may thus be important, so far overlooked, conservation areas for the maintainance of coral diversity in a warming climate. The consideration of LAIW can significantly improve coral bleaching predictions and can provide a valuable tool for coral reef conservation and management.

Pollen and dinoflagellate cyst counts on sediment core M72/5_628-1 (MD72/5-25-GC1) from the Black Sea

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64-55 and 40-32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54-45 and 28-20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

Pollen analysis of sediment core GIK16415-2 in the eastern tropical Atlantic

Palynological data of the marine core M 16415-2 show latitudinal shifts of the northern fringe of the tropical rain forest in north-west Africa during the last 700 ka. Savanna and dry open forest expanded southwards and tropical rain forest expanded northwards during dry and humid periods, respectively. Until 220 ka B.P., the tropical rain forest probably kept its zonal character in West Africa during glacials and interglacials. It is only during the last two glacial periods that the rain forest possibly fragmented into refugia. Throughout the Brunhes chron, pollen and spore transport was mainly by trade winds.