Investigations on fossil bivalves and wood from Seymour Island, Antarctica

Quasi-periodic variation in sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure in the equatorial Pacific known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of interannual variability in global climate. A collapse of the tropical Pacific onto a state resembling a so-called 'permanent El Niño', with a preferentially warmed eastern equatorial Pacific, flatter thermocline, and reduced interannual variability, in a warmer world is predicted by prevailing ENSO theory. If correct, future warming will be accompanied by a shift toward persistent conditions resembling El Niño years today, with major implications for global hydrological cycles and consequent impacts on socioeconomic and ecological systems. However, much uncertainty remains about how interannual variability will be affected. Here, we present multi-annual records of climate derived from growth increment widths in fossil bivalves and co-occurring driftwood from the Antarctic peninsula that demonstrate significant variability in the quasi-biennial and 3-6 year bands consistent with ENSO, despite early Eocene (~50 Mya) greenhouse conditions with global average temperature -10 degrees higher than today. A coupled climate model suggests an ENSO signal and teleconnections to this region during the Eocene, much like today. The presence of ENSO variation during this markedly warmer interval argues for the persistence of robust interannual variability in our future greenhouse world.

Geochemical data derived from an absolutely dated shell-based chronology for the Irish Sea

The identification in various proxy records of periods of rapid (decadal scale) climate change over recent millennia, together with the possibility that feedback mechanisms may amplify climate system responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, highlights the importance of a detailed understanding, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, of forcings and feedbacks within the system. Such an understanding has hitherto been limited because the temperate marine environment has lacked an absolute timescale of the kind provided by tree-rings for the terrestrial environment and by corals for the tropical marine environment. Here we present the first annually resolved, multi-centennial (489-year), absolutely dated, shell-based marine master chronology. The chronology has been constructed by detrending and averaging annual growth increment widths in the shells of multiple specimens of the very long-lived bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica, collected from sites to the south and west of the Isle of Man in the Irish Sea. The strength of the common environmental signal expressed in the chronology is fully comparable with equivalent statistics for tree-ring chronologies. Analysis of the 14C signal in the shells shows no trend in the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (DR), although it may be more variable before ~1750. The d13C signal shows a very significant (R**2 = 0.456, p < 0.0001) trend due to the 13C Suess effect.

Shell-based chronologies for the Irish Sea

We demonstrate here that the growth increment variability in the shell of the long-lived bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica can be interpreted as an indicator of marine environmental change in the climatically important North Atlantic shelf seas. Multi-centennial (up to 489-year) chronologies were constructed using five detrending techniques and their characteristics compared. The strength of the common environmental signal expressed in the chronologies was found to be fully comparable with equivalent statistics for tree-ring chronologies. The negative exponential function using truncated increment-width series from which the first thirty years have been removed was chosen as the optimal detrending technique. Chronology indices were compared with the Central England Temperature record and with seawater temperature records from stations close to the study site in the Irish Sea. Statistically significant correlations were found between the chronology indices and (a) mean air temperature for the 14-month period beginning in the January preceding the year of growth, (b) mean seawater temperatures for February-October in the year preceding the year of growth (c) late summer and autumn air temperatures and sea surface temperatures for the year of growth and (d) the timing of the autumn decline in SST. Changes through time in the correlations with air and seawater temperatures and changes towards a deeper water origin for the shells in the chronology were interpreted as an indication that shell growth may respond to stratification dynamics.

The science of citizen science

Biodiversity citizen science projects are growing in number, size, and scope, and are gaining recognition as valuable data sources that build public engagement. Yet publication rates indicate that citizen science is still infrequently used as a primary tool for conservation research and the causes of this apparent disconnect have not been quantitatively evaluated. To uncover the barriers to the use of citizen science as a research tool, we surveyed professional biodiversity scientists (n = 423) and citizen science project managers (n = 125). We conducted three analyses using non-parametric recursive modeling (random forest), using questions that addressed: scientists' perceptions and preferences regarding citizen science, scientists' requirements for their own data, and the actual practices of citizen science projects. For all three analyses we identified the most important factors that influence the probability of publication using citizen science data. Four general barriers emerged: a narrow awareness among scientists of citizen science projects that match their needs; the fact that not all biodiversity science is well-suited for citizen science; inconsistency in data quality across citizen science projects; and bias among scientists for certain data sources (institutions and ages/education levels of data collectors). Notably, we find limited evidence to suggest a relationship between citizen science projects that satisfy scientists' biases and data quality or probability of publication. These results illuminate the need for greater visibility of citizen science practices with respect to the requirements of biodiversity science and show that addressing bias among scientists could improve application of citizen science in conservation.

Al/Si record of sediment core GeoB6211-2

Detrending natural and anthropogenic components of climate variability is arguably an issue of utmost importance to society. To accomplish this issue, one must rely on a comprehensive understanding of the natural variability of the climate system on a regional level. Here we explore how different proxies (e.g., stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition, pollen percentages, bulk sediment elemental ratios) record Holocene precipitation variability over southeastern South America. We found a general good agreement between the different records both on orbital and centennial time-scales. Dry mid Holocene, and wet late Holocene, Younger Dryas and a period between ~9.4 and 8.12 cal kyr BP seem to be pervasive features. Moreover, we show that proxy-specific sensitivity can greatly improve past precipitation reconstructions.