2 resultados para random utility model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Paleoceanographic archives derived from 17 marine sediment cores reconstruct the response of the Southwest Pacific Ocean to the peak interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (ca. 125?ka). Paleo-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) estimates were obtained from the Random Forest model-an ensemble decision tree tool-applied to core-top planktonic foraminiferal faunas calibrated to modern SSTs. The reconstructed geographic pattern of the SST anomaly (maximum SST between 120 and 132?ka minus mean modern SST) seems to indicate how MIS 5e conditions were generally warmer in the Southwest Pacific, especially in the western Tasman Sea where a strengthened East Australian Current (EAC) likely extended subtropical influence to ca. 45°S off Tasmania. In contrast, the eastern Tasman Sea may have had a modest cooling except around 45°S. The observed pattern resembles that developing under the present warming trend in the region. An increase in wind stress curl over the modern South Pacific is hypothesized to have spun-up the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre, with concurrent increase in subtropical flow in the western boundary currents that include the EAC. However, warmer temperatures along the Subtropical Front and Campbell Plateau to the south suggest that the relative influence of the boundary inflows to eastern New Zealand may have differed in MIS 5e, and these currents may have followed different paths compared to today.

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Clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea are used to investigate sediment source and transport processes and to evaluate the evolution of the East Asian monsoon over the past 2 Myr. Clay minerals consist mainly of illite (22-43%) and smectite (12-48%), with associated chlorite (10-30%), kaolinite (2-18%), and random mixed-layer clays (5-22%). Hydrodynamic and mineralogical studies indicate that illite and chlorite sources include Taiwan and the Yangtze River, that smectite and mixed-layer clays originate predominantly from Luzon and Indonesia, and that kaolinite is primarily derived from the Pearl River. Mineral assemblages indicate strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high illite, chlorite, and kaolinite content during glacials and high smectite and mixed-layer clay content during interglacials. During interglacials, summer enhanced monsoon (southwesterly) currents transport more smectite and mixed-layer clays to Site 1146 whereas during glacials, enhanced winter monsoon (northerly) currents transport more illite and chlorite from Taiwan and the Yangtze River. The ratio (smectite+mixed layers)/(illite+chlorite) was adopted as a proxy for East Asian monsoon variability. Higher ratios indicate strengthened summer-monsoon winds and weakened winter-monsoon winds during interglacials. In contrast, lower ratios indicate a strongly intensified winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon during glacials. Spectral analysis indicates the mineral ratio was dominantly forced by monsoon variability prior to the development of large-scale glaciation at 1.2 Myr and by both monsoon variability and the effects of changing sea level in the interval 1.2 Myr to present.