Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Topsoil properties and abundance of Acari and Collembola species in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems.

Modes of occurrence and geochemistry at DSDP Holes 69-505A and 69-505B

The compositions of chrome spinels of Costa Rica Rift basalts from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 505 vary depending on their occurrences as (1) inclusions in olivine crystals, (2) inclusions in Plagioclase crystals, and (3) isolated crystals in variolitic or glassy samples. The variations are a consequence of (1) changes of melt compositions as crystallization proceeds, and (2) contrasting behavior of olivine and Plagioclase in competition with spinels for Al and Mg. Some spinels have skeletal rims compositionally less magnesian than mineral cores; however, the cores do not appear to be xenocrysts, unlike some texturally similar spinels in Mid-Atlantic Ridge basalts.

(Table 1) Ooze/chalk cycles: frequency of occurrence at DSDP Leg 74 Sites

Shallow- to deep-water environments are represented by the sediments and rocks recovered from the Walvis Ridge- Angola Basin transect. These calcareous oozes, chalks, limestones, and volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks are used to define and correlate four lithostratigraphic units. The sediments were deposited in cycles which represent recurring tectonic or Oceanographic events and may be related to climatic fluctuations and orbital perturbations. Turbidites are the most common and easily identified sedimentary cycle. They are Late Cretaceous to Paleocene in age and are repeated in intervals ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of years. They are also found interbedded between basalt layers. Turbidites are easily distinguished from the other cycles present by their sedimentary structures, mineral composition, alteration products, and physical properties (GRAPE) data. Large-scale turbidites, debris, or slump breccias are found at or just above the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary and indicate an event of considerable energy possibly related to intense tectonic activity. Diagenetic cycles, interpreted as small-scale dissolution cycles or sequences produced by biogenic activity, occur in early Paleocene chalks. The recurrence intervals average -20,000 y. but have a wide range of values. Variations in CaCO3 content, color, gradational boundaries, and trace fossil content characterize these sediments. These cycles reflect bottom-water conditions. Ooze-chalk cycles occur in upper Oligocene to upper Paleocene sediments and represent conditions that once existed at the sediment/water interface where they obtained their diagenetic potential. These oscillations are repeated over tens of thousands of years and may have no modern analogs. Color variations in sediments at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary indicate local fluctuations in oxygen content within the sediments or the water column. This situation lasted for several hundred thousand years and is not repeated elsewhere in the sequence. Large dissolution cycles are recorded in the sediments at Site 527 that are of middle Miocene and early Oligocene to middle Eocene age. During this time the seafloor at this site appears to have been located at or subsided to a depth occupied by a fluctuating CCD and lysocline.

Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Phytoplankton niches estimated from CPR data in the North Atlantic

We combine phytoplankton occurrence data for 119 species from the continuous plankton recorder with climatological environmental variables in the North Atlantic to obtain ecological response functions of each species using the MaxEnt statistical method. These response functions describe how the probability of occurrence of each species changes as a function of environmental conditions and can be reduced to a simple description of phytoplankton realized niches using the mean and standard deviation of each environmental variable, weighted by its response function. Although there was substantial variation in the realized niche among species within groups, the envelope of the realized niches of North Atlantic diatoms and dinoflagellates are mostly separate in niche space.

Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.