12 resultados para probability and reinforcement proportion

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The Cenozoic sediments sampled in ODP Leg 104 on the Vøring Plateau show a distinct variability of the total organic carbon content (TOC) and the accumulation rates of TOC. Based on the geochemical and organic-petrographic characterization of the sedimentary organic matter (OM), the allochthonous and autochthonous proportion of the OM could be quantified. The results clearly demonstrate that high TOC percentages and TOC accumulation rates in Cenozoic sediment sections display a generally high input of allochthonous organic matter. Oxidized and partly well-rounded organic particles built up the main portion of OM within the Miocene, TOC-rich sediments. The most probable source of this oxidized OM are reworked sediments from the Scandinavian shelf. Changes in the input of these organic particles are to some degree correlative with sea-level changes. The Cenozoic accumulation of autochthonous OM is low and does not reveal a clear variation during the Miocene and early Pliocene. In spite of a high accumulation rate of biogenic opal during the Early Miocene, the accumulation rate of autochthonous TOC is low. The autochthonous particle assemblage is dominated by relatively inert OM, like dinoflagellate cysts. This points to an intensive biological and/or early diagenetic degradation of the marine OM under well oxidized bottom water conditions during the last 23 Myr. Nevertheless, a continuation of marine OM degradation during later stages of diagenesis cannot be excluded. A prominent dominance of allochthonous OM over autochthonous is documented with the beginning of the Pliocene. At 2.45 Ma the episodic occurrence of ice-rafted, thermally mature OM reflects the onset of the glacial erosion of Mesozoic, coal and black shale bearing sediments on the Scandinavian and Barents Sea shelves. The first occurrence of these, in view of the actual burial depth, thermally overmature OM particles is, therefore, a marker for the beginning of the strong Scandinavian glaciation and the advance of the glacial front toward the shelves.

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Millennial-scale paleoceanographic changes in the Bering Sea during the last 71 kyrs were reconstructed using geochemical and isotope proxies (biogenic opal, CaCO3, and total organic carbon (TOC), nitrogen and carbon isotopes of sedimentary organic matters) and microfossil (radiolaria and foraminifera) data from two cores (PC23A and PC24A) which were collected from the northern continental slope area at intermediate water depths. Biogenic opal and TOC contents were generally high with high sedimentation rates during the last deglaciation. Laminated sediment depositions during the Early-Holocene (EH) and Bølling-Allerød (BA) were closely related with the increased primary productivity recorded by high biogenic opal and TOC contents and high d15N values. Enhanced surface-water productivity was attributed to increased nutrient supply from strengthened Bering Slope Current (BSC) and from increased amount of glacial melt-water, resulting in high C/N ratios and low d13C values, and high proportion of Rhizoplegma boreale during the last deglaciation. In contrast, low surface-water productivity during the last glacial period was due to depleted nutrient supply caused by strong stratification and to restricted phytoplankton bloom by extensive sea ice distribution under cold climates. Extensive formation of sea ice produces more oxygen-rich intermediate-water, leading to oxic bottom-water conditions due to active ventilation, which favored good preservation of oxic benthic foraminifera species. Remarkable CaCO3 peaks coeval with high biogenic opal and TOC contents in both cores during MIS 3 to MIS 4 are most likely correlated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. High d15N and d13Corg values during D-O interstadials support increased surface-water productivity resulting from nutrients supplied mainly by intensified BSC. During the EH, BA and D-O interstadials, dominant benthic foraminifera species indicate dysoxic bottom-water conditions as a result of increased surface-water productivity and weak ventilation of intermediate-water with mitigated sea ice development caused by strengthening of the Alaskan Stream. It is of note that the bottom-water conditions and formation of intermediate-water in the Bering Sea during the last glacial period are related to the variation of dissolved oxygen concentration of the bottom-water in the northeastern Pacific and to strong ventilation of intermediate-water in the northwestern Pacific. Thus, the millennial-scale paleoceanographic events in the Bering Sea during the D-O interstadials are closely associated with the intermediate-water ventilation, ultimately leading to weakening of North Pacific Intermediate Water.

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The influence of microhabitat, organic matter flux, and metabolism on the stable oxygen and carbon isotope composition of live (Rose Bengal stained) and dead (empty tests) deep-sea benthic foraminifera from the Gulf of Lions (western Mediterranean Sea) have been studied. The total range of observed foraminiferal isotope values exceeds 1.0 per mil for d18O and 2.2 per mil for d13C demonstrating a wide range of coexisting disequilibria relative to d18O of equilibrium calcite (d18OEQ) and d13C of bottom water dissolved inorganic carbon (d13CDIC). The mean d18O values reveal strongest disequilibria for the studied epifaunal to shallow infaunal species (Cibicidoides pachydermus, Uvigerina mediterranea, Uvigerina peregrina) while values approach equilibrium in deep infaunal species (Globobulimina affinis, Globobulimina pseudospinescens). The mean d13C values decrease with increasing average living depths of the different species, thus reflecting a dominant microhabitat (pore water) signal. At the axis of the Lacaze-Duthier Canyon a minimum d13CDIC pore water gradient of approximately -2.1 per mil is assessed for the upper 6 cm of the surface sediment. Although live individuals of U. mediterranea were found in different depth intervals their mean d13C values are consistent with calcification at an average living depth around 1 cm. The deep infaunal occurrence of U. mediterranea specimens suggests association with macrofaunal burrows creating a microenvironment with geochemical characteristics similar to the topmost centimeter. This also explains the excellent agreement between stable isotope signals of live and dead individuals. The ontogenetic enrichment in both d18O and d13C values of U. mediterranea suggests a slow-down of metabolic rates during test growth similar to that previously observed in planktic foraminifera. Enhanced organic carbon fluxes and higher proportion of resuspended terrestrial organic material at the canyon axis are reflected by d13C values of U. mediterranea on average 0.58 per mil lower than those from the open slope. These results demonstrate the general applicability of the d13C signal of this species for the reconstruction of past organic matter fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea. Further studies on live specimens are needed for a more quantitative paleoceanographic approach.

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A 270 cm long sediment sequence was recovered with a piston corer from east lobe Bonney, Taylor Valley, Antarctica, and characterized according to its sedimentological, mineralogical, and geochemical properties. It is the first record of such length recovered from east lobe Bonney. The sediment core is mainly composed of halite crystals of different sizes, water, and a relatively low and stable proportion of clastic particles. Although the sediment surface was probably disturbed by the coring process and absence or low contents of organic material or carbonates hampers the establishment of a robust chronology by radiocarbon dating, the core probably contains at least several hundred years of information about the history of the lake and the Bonney basin. Variations in halite crystal sizes and amount as well as variations in the composition of clastic material can be related to past lake level changes and evaporation cycles.

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Sites 1095, 1096, and 1101 were drilled on the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. F1) to recover a continuous high-resolution record of Antarctic glaciation. Site 1095 is the subject of a short paper in this volume (Pudsey, 2001, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.178.214.2001), whereas mass accumulation rates at the three sites are described by Wolf-Welling (2001, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.178.223.2001) and ice-rafted debris at Site 1101 is discussed by Cowan (2001, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.178.206.2001) This report documents grain-size data (sand and fine fraction) and the proportion of biogenic silica for the upper 300 m at Site 1095, the upper 250 m at Site 1096, and the whole 220 m at Site 1101.

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The Maud Belt in Dronning Maud Land (western East Antarctic Craton) preserves a high-grade polyphase tectono-thermal history with two orogenic episodes of Mesoproterozoic (1.2-1.0 Ga) and Neoproterozoic (0.6-0.5 Ga) age. New SHRIMP U-Pb zircon data from southern Gjelsvikfjella in the northeastern part of the belt make it possible to differentiate between a series of magmatic and metamorphic events. The oldest event recorded is the formation of an extensive 1140-1130 Ma volcanic arc. This was followed by 1104 ± 8 Ma granitoids that might represent, together with so far undated mafic dykes, part of a decompression melting-related bimodal suite that reflects the sub-continental Umkondo igneous event. The first high-grade metamorphism is constrained at 1070 Ma. The metamorphic age data are similar to those obtained from other parts of the Maud Belt, but also from the Namaqua-Natal Belt in South Africa, but the preceding arc formation was diachronous in the two belts. This indicates that the two belts did not form a continuous volcanic arc unit as suggested in previous models, but became connected only at the end of the Mesoproterozoic. Intense reworking during the Neoproterozoic, probably as a result of continent-continent collision between components of Gondwana, is indicated by ductile refliation, further high-grade metamorphic recrystallisation and metamorphic zircon overgrowths at approximately 530 Ma. This was followed by late- to post-tectonic magmatism, reflected by 500 Ma granite bodies and 490 Ma aplite dykes as well as a 480 Ma gabbro body.

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Compared to mid-latitude deserts, the properties, formation and evolution of desert pavements and the underlying vesicular layer in Antarctica are poorly understood. This study examines the desert pavements and the vesicular layer from seven soil chronosequences in the Transantarctic Mountains that have developed on two contrasting parent materials: sandstone-dolerite and granite-gneiss. The pavement density commonly ranges from 63 to 92% with a median value of 80% and does not vary significantly with time of exposure or parent material composition. The dominant size range of clasts decreases with time of exposure, ranging from 16-64 mm on Holocene and late Quaternary surfaces to 8-16 mm on surfaces of middle Quaternary and older age. The proportion of clasts with ventifaction increases progressively through time from 20% on drifts of Holocene and late Quaternary age to 35% on Miocene-aged drifts. Desert varnish forms rapidly, especially on dolerite clasts, with nearly 100% cover on surfaces of early Quaternary and older age. Macropitting occurs only on clasts that have been exposed since the Miocene. A pavement development index, based on predominant clast-size class, pavement density, and the proportion of clasts with ventifaction, varnish, and pits, readily differentiated pavements according to relative age. From these findings we judge that desert pavements initially form from a surficial concentration of boulders during till deposition followed by a short period of deflation and a longer period of progressive chemical and physical weathering of surface clasts. The vesicular layer that underlies the desert pavement averages 4 cm in thickness and is enriched in silt, which is contributed primarily by weathering rather than eolian deposition. A comparison is made between desert pavement properties in mid-latitude deserts and Antarctic deserts.

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Limited availability of P in soils to crops may be due to deficiency and/or severe P retention. Earlier studies that drew on large soil profile databases have indicated that it is not (yet) feasible to present meaningful values for "plant-available" soil P, obtained according to comparable analytical methods, that may be linked to soil geographical databases derived from 1:5 million scale FAO Digital Soil Map of the World, such as the 5 x 5 arc-minute version of the ISRIC-WISE database. Therefore, an alternative solution for studying possible crop responses to fertilizer-P applied to soils, at a broad scale, was sought. The approach described in this report considers the inherent capacity of soils to retain phosphorus (P retention), in various forms. Main controlling factors of P retention processes, at the broad scale under consideration, are considered to be pH, soil mineralogy, and clay content. First, derived values for these properties were used to rate the inferred capacity for P retention of the component soil units of each map unit (or grid cell) using four classes (i.e., Low, Moderate, High, and Very High). Subsequently, the overall soil phosphorus retention potential was assessed for each mapping unit, taking into account the P-ratings and relative proportion of each component soil unit. Each P retention class has been assigned to a likely fertilizer P recovery fraction, derived from the literature, thereby permitting spatially more detailed, integrated model-based studies of environmental sustainability and agricultural production at the global and continental level (< 1:5 million). Nonetheless, uncertainties remain high; the present analysis provides an approximation of world soil phosphorus retention potential.

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Past changes in plant and landscape diversity can be evaluated through pollen analysis, however, pollen based diversity indexes are potentially biased by differential pollen production and deposition. Studies examining the relationship between pollen and landscape diversity are therefore needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate how different pollen based indexes capture aspects of landscape diversity. Pollen counts were obtained from surface samples of 50 small to medium sized lakes in Brandenburg (Northeast Germany) and compiled into two sets, with one containing all pollen counts from terrestrial plants and the second restricted to wind-pollinated taxa. Both sets were adjusted for the pollen production/dispersal bias using the REVEALS model. A high resolution biotope map was used to extract the density of total biotopes and different biotopes per area as parameters describing landscape diversity. In addition tree species diversity was obtained from forest inventory data. The Shannon index and the number of taxa in a sample of 10 pollen grains are highly correlated and provide a useful measure of pollen type diversity which corresponds best to landscape diversity within one km of the lake and the proportion of non-forested area within seven km. Adjustments of the pollen production/dispersal bias only slightly improve the relationships between pollen diversity and landscape diversity for the restricted dataset as well as for the forest inventory data and corresponding pollen types. Using rarefaction analysis, we propose the following convention: pollen type diversity is represented by the number of types in a small sample (low count e.g. 10), pollen type richness is the number of types in a large sample (high count e.g. 500) and pollen sample evenness is characterized by the ratio of the two. Synthesis. Pollen type diversity is a robust index that captures vegetation structure and landscape diversity. It is ideally suited for between site comparisons as it does not require high pollen counts. In concert with pollen type richness and evenness, it helps evaluating the effect of climate change and human land use on vegetation structure on long timescales.

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The Jena Biodiversity Experiment is located on a Central European mesophilic floodplain on the banks of the Saale River (see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown in the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, or 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. In June 2013, a natural 200-year flood event occurred at the field site. Rainfall in May 2013 in Jena was ~150mm, constituting >25% of annual precipitation at the site that year. Overall the flood affected the entire Elbe River Basin and much of Europe and was one of the largest natural flooding events in the past two centuries. The flood lasted for a total of 24 days at the site (30 May-24 June) and led to anaerobic soil conditions. Due to small topographical differences among the plots in the experiment (<1m), there was variation in the duration of flooding and the proportion of each plot that was flooded. This variation was well-distributed across the diversity gradient. To assess the importance of flood severity, the proportion of each plot that was flooded was estimated by eye (using five classes: 0 completely dry, 0.25 up to a quarter under water, 0.5 half, 0.75 up to three quarters under water, and 1 more than three quarters under water up to completely submerged). These values, for each of the 24 days that the flood lasted, were summed up to calculate a flooding index. The resulting flooding index is given for each plot of the Main Experiment.

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Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.