Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Mineraly of oceanic crust from the Kane Transform, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Gabbroic cumulates drilled south of the Kane Transform Fault on the slow-spread Mid-Atlantic Ridge preserve up to three discrete magnetization components. Here we use absolute age constraints derived from the paleomagnetic data to develop a model for the magmatic construction of this section of the lower oceanic crust. By comparing the paleomagnetic data with mineral compositions, and based on thermal models of local reheating, we infer that magmas that began crystallizing in the upper mantle intruded into the lower oceanic crust and formed meter-scale sills. Some of these magmas were crystal-laden and the subsequent expulsion of interstitial liquid from them produced '"cumulus" sills. These small-scale magmatic injections took place over at least 210 000 years and at distances of ~3 km from the ridge axis and may have formed much of the lower crust. This model explains many of the complexities described in this area and can be used to help understand the general formation of oceanic crust at slow-spread ridges.

Chemical composition of minerals in peridotides from the 15°20'N transform fault, Atlantic Ocean

Information about the first finding of awaruite in oceanic peridotites is given. Petrography of rocks, mineralogy, and minerals associated with awaruite are characterized.

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from COCOTOW Expedition stations in the intersection of the Siqueiros Transform Fault and the East Pacific Rise

A near-bottom geological and geophysical survey was conducted at the western intersection of the Siqueiros Transform Fault and the East Pacific Rise. Transform-fault shear appears to distort the east flank of the rise crest in an area north of the fracture zone. In ward-facing scarps trend 335° and do not parallel the regional axis of spreading. Small-scale scarps reveal a hummocky bathymetry. The center of spreading is not a central peak but rather a 20-40 m deep, 1 km wide valley superimposed upon an 8 km wide ridge-crest horst. Small-scale topography indicates widespread volcanic flows within the valley. Two 0.75 km wide blocks flank the central valley. Fault scarps are more dominant on the western flank. Their alignment shifts from directions intermediate to parallel to the regional axis of spreading (355°). A median ridge within the fracture zone has a fault-block topography similar to that of the East Pacific Rise to the north. Dominant eastward-facing scarps trending 335° are on the west flank. A central depression, 1 km wide and 30 m deep, separates the dominantly fault-block regime of the west from the smoother topography of the east flank. This ridge originated by uplift due to faulting as well as by volcanism. Detailed mapping was concentrated in a perched basin (Dante's Hole) at the intersection of the rise crest and the fracture zone. Structural features suggest that Dante's Hole is an area subject to extreme shear and tensional drag resulting from transition between non-rigid and rigid crustal behavior. Normal E-W crustal spreading is probably taking place well within the northern confines of the basin. Possible residual spreading of this isolated rise crest coupled with shear drag within the transform fault could explain the structural isolation of Dante's Hole from the remainder of the Siqueiros Transform Fault.