45 resultados para pre-export model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This dataset characterizes the evolution of western African precipitation indicated by marine sediment geochemical records in comparison to transient simulations using CCSM3 global climate model throughout the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka). It contains (1) defined tie-points (age models), newly published stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera and Al/Si log-ratios of eight marine sediment cores from the western African margin and (2) annual and seasonal rainfall anomalies (relative to pre-industrial values) for six characteristic latitudinal bands in western Africa simulated by CCSM3 (two transient simulations: one non-accelerated and one accelerated experiment).

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

As part of the CryoSat Cal/Val activities and the pre-site survey for an ice core drilling contributing to the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences (IPICS), ground based kinematic GPS measurements were conducted in early 2007 in the vicinity of the German overwintering station Neumayer (8.25° W and 70.65° S). The investigated area comprises the regions of the ice tongues Halvfarryggen and Søråsen, which rise from the Ekströmisen to a maximum of about 760 m surface elevation, and have an areal extent of about 100 km x 50 km each. Available digital elevation models (DEMs) from radar altimetry and the Antarctic Digital Database show elevation differences of up to hundreds of meters in this region, which necessitated an accurate survey of the conditions on-site. An improved DEM of the Ekströmisen surroundings is derived by a combination of highly accurate ground based GPS measurements, satellite derived laser altimetry data (ICESat), airborne radar altimetry (ARA), and radio echo sounding (RES). The DEM presented here achieves a vertical accuracy of about 1.3 m and can be used for improved ice dynamic modeling and mass balance studies.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The global aerosol/climate model ECHAM5-HAM is used in order to investigate the dust cycle for four interglacial and one glacial climate conditions. The 20-year time-slices are the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 years BP), last glacial inception (115000 years BP), Eemian (126000 years BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21000 years BP) time intervals. The study is focused on the Antarctic region. The model is able to reproduce the magnitude order of dust deposition globally for the pre-industial and LGM climates. Correlation coefficient of the natural logarithm of the observed and modeled values is 0.78 for the CTRL and 0.81 for the LGM. For the pre-industrial simulation the model overestimates observed values in Antarctica by a factor of about 2-3 due to overestimation of the Australian dust source and too high wet deposition in the Antarctica interior. In the LGM, the model underestimates dust deposition in eastern Antarctica by a factor of about 4-5 due to underestimation of the South American dust source. More records are needed to validate dust deposition for the past interglacial time-slices. The modeled results show that dust deposition in Antarctica in the past interglacial time-slices is higher than in the CTRL simulation. The largest increase of dust deposition in Antarctica is simulated for the LGM, showing about 10-fold increase compared to CTRL.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) have been suggested to exert a critical influence on global climate through wind-driven upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and the potentially resulting atmospheric CO2 variations. The investigation of the temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW along with forcings and feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate research. In this study, the evolution of the SWW under orbital forcing from the early Holocene (9 kyr BP) to pre-industrial modern times is examined with transient experiments using the comprehensive coupled global climate model CCSM3. Analyses of the model results suggest that the annual and seasonal mean SWW were subject to an overall strengthening and poleward shifting trend during the course of the early-to-late Holocene under the influence of orbital forcing, except for the austral spring season, where the SWW exhibited an opposite trend of shifting towards the equator.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the framework of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a comprehensive glaciological pre-site survey has been carried out on Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in the past decade. Within this survey, four intermediate-depth ice cores and 13 snow pits were analyzed for their ionic composition and interpreted with respect to the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic sulphate deposition. The comparison of the non-sea-salt (nss)-sulphate peaks that are related to the well-known eruptions of Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in AD 1991 revealed sulphate depositions of comparable size (15.8 ± 3.4 kg/km**2) in 11 snow pits. There is a tendency to higher annual concentrations for smaller snow-accumulation rates. The combination of seasonal sodium and annually resolved nss-sulphate records allowed the establishment of a time-scale derived by annual-layer counting over the last 2000 years and thus a detailed chronology of annual volcanic sulphate deposition. Using a robust outlier detection algorithm, 49 volcanic eruptions were identified between AD 165 and 1997. The dating uncertainty is ±3 years between AD 1997 and 1601, around ±5 years between AD 1601 and 1257, and increasing to ±24 years at AD 165, improving the accuracy of the volcanic chronology during the penultimate millennium considerably.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 atm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Macrozooplankton are an important link between higher and lower trophic levels in the oceans. They serve as the primary food for fish, reptiles, birds and mammals in some regions, and play a role in the export of carbon from the surface to the intermediate and deep ocean. Little, however, is known of their global distribution and biomass. Here we compiled a dataset of macrozooplankton abundance and biomass observations for the global ocean from a collection of four datasets. We harmonise the data to common units, calculate additional carbon biomass where possible, and bin the dataset in a global 1 x 1 degree grid. This dataset is part of a wider effort to provide a global picture of carbon biomass data for key plankton functional types, in particular to support the development of marine ecosystem models. Over 387 700 abundance data and 1330 carbon biomass data have been collected from pre-existing datasets. A further 34 938 abundance data were converted to carbon biomass data using species-specific length frequencies or using species-specific abundance to carbon biomass data. Depth-integrated values are used to calculate known epipelagic macrozooplankton biomass concentrations and global biomass. Global macrozooplankton biomass has a mean of 8.4 µg C l-1, median of 0.15 µg C l-1 and a standard deviation of 63.46 µg C l-1. The global annual average estimate of epipelagic macrozooplankton, based on the median value, is 0.02 Pg C. Biomass is highest in the tropics, decreasing in the sub-tropics and increasing slightly towards the poles. There are, however, limitations on the dataset; abundance observations have good coverage except in the South Pacific mid latitudes, but biomass observation coverage is only good at high latitudes. Biomass is restricted to data that is originally given in carbon or to data that can be converted from abundance to carbon. Carbon conversions from abundance are restricted in the most part by the lack of information on the size of the organism and/or the absence of taxonomic information. Distribution patterns of global macrozooplankton biomass and statistical information about biomass concentrations may be used to validate biogeochemical models and Plankton Functional Type models.