Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change

Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate ( R) and body mass ( M), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R is proportional to Mb, the precise value of b much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts b to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; b is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size.

Physiological response to elevated temperature and pCO2 varies across four Pacific coral species: Understanding the unique host + symbiont response

The physiological response to individual and combined stressors of elevated temperature and pCO2 were measured over a 24-day period in four Pacific corals and their respective symbionts (Acropora millepora/Symbiodinium C21a, Pocillopora damicornis/Symbiodinium C1c-d-t, Montipora monasteriata/Symbiodinium C15, and Turbinaria reniformis/Symbiodinium trenchii). Multivariate analyses indicated that elevated temperature played a greater role in altering physiological response, with the greatest degree of change occurring within M. monasteriata and T. reniformis. Algal cellular volume, protein, and lipid content all increased for M. monasteriata. Likewise, S. trenchii volume and protein content in T. reniformis also increased with temperature. Despite decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency, few changes in biochemical composition (i.e. lipids, proteins, and carbohydrates) or cellular volume occurred at high temperature in the two thermally sensitive symbionts C21a and C1c-d-t. Intracellular carbonic anhydrase transcript abundance increased with temperature in A. millepora but not in P. damicornis, possibly reflecting differences in host mitigated carbon supply during thermal stress. Importantly, our results show that the host and symbiont response to climate change differs considerably across species and that greater physiological plasticity in response to elevated temperature may be an important strategy distinguishing thermally tolerant vs. thermally sensitive species.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Planimetric ice-flow convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with links to model result files

Fast-flowing ice streams discharge most of the ice from the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coastward. Understanding how their tributary organisation is governed and evolves is essential for developing reliable models of the ice sheet's response to climate change. Despite much research on ice-stream mechanics, this problem is unsolved, because the complexity of flow within and across the tributary networks has hardly been interrogated. Here I present the first map of planimetric flow convergence across the ice sheet, calculated from satellite measurements of ice surface velocity, and use it to explore this complexity. The convergence map of Antarctica elucidates how ice-stream tributaries draw ice from the interior. It also reveals curvilinear zones of convergence along lateral shear margins of streaming, and abundant convergence ripples associated with nonlinear ice rheology and changes in bed topography and friction. Flow convergence on ice-stream tributaries and their feeding zones is markedly uneven, and interspersed with divergence at distances of the order of kilometres. For individual drainage basins as well as the ice sheet as a whole, the range of convergence and divergence decreases systematically with flow speed, implying that fast flow cannot converge or diverge as much as slow flow. I therefore deduce that flow in ice-stream networks is subject to mechanical regulation that limits flow-orthonormal strain rates. These properties and the gridded data of convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate in this archive provide targets for ice- sheet simulations and motivate more research into the origin and dynamics of tributarization.

Temperature, precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2009 in the Koshi River Basin of the Middle Himalayas

The aim of this paper is to find out if there is a significant difference in using NDVI dataset processed by harmonic analysis method to evaluate its dynamic and response to climate change, compared with the original data.

Planktonic foraminifera in the latest Maastrichtian of Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic

An abrupt global warming of 3-4°C occurred near the end of the Maastrichtian at 65.45-65.10 Ma. The environmental effects of this warm event are here documented based on stable isotopes and quantitative analysis of planktonic foraminifera at the South Atlantic DSDP Site 525A. Stable isotopes of individual species mark a rapid increase in temperature and a reduction in the vertical water mass stratification that is accompanied by a decrease in niche habitats, reduced species diversity and/or abundance, smaller species morphologies or dwarfing, and reduced photosymbiotic activity. During the warm event, the relative abundance of a large number of species decreased, including tropical-subtropical affiliated species, whereas typical mid-latitude species retained high abundances. This indicates that climate warming did not create favorable conditions for all tropical-subtropical species at mid-latitudes and did not cause a massive retreat in the local mid-latitude population. A noticeable exception is the ecological generalist Heterohelix dentata Stenestad that dominated during the cool intervals, but significantly decreased during the warm event. However, dwarfing is the most striking response to the abrupt warming and occurred in various species of different morphologies and lineages (e.g. biserial, trochospiral, keeled globotruncanids). Dwarfing is a typical reaction to environmental stress conditions and was likely the result of increased reproduction rates. Similarly, photosymbiotic activity appears to have been reduced significantly during the maximum warming, as indicated by decreased delta13C values. The foraminiferal response to climate change is thus multifaceted resulting in decreased species diversity, decreased species populations, increased competition due to reduced niche habitats, dwarfing and reduced photosymbiotic activity.

Reconstruction of dust flux of ODP Hole 198-1209C

Eolian dust in pelagic deep sea sediments can be used to reconstruct ancient wind patterns and paleoenvironmental response to climate change. Traditional methods to determine dust accumulation involve isolating the non-dissolvable aluminosilicate minerals from deep sea sediments through a series of chemical leaches, but cannot differentiate between minerals from eolian, authigenic and volcanogenic sources. Other geochemical proxies, such as sedimentary 232Th and crustal 4He content, have been used to construct high-resolution records of atmospheric dust fluxes to the deep sea during the Quaternary. Here we use sedimentary Th content as a proxy for terrigenous material (eolian dust) in ~58 Myr-old sediments from the Shatsky Rise (ODP Site 1209) and compare our results with previous dust estimates generated using the traditional chemical extraction method and sedimentary 4He(crustal) concentrations. We find excellent agreement between Th-based dust estimates and those generated using the traditional method. In addition our results show a correlation between sedimentary Th and 4He(crustal) content, which suggests a source older than present day Asian loess supplied dust to the central subtropical Pacific Ocean during the early Paleogene.

(Table 1) Bioclimatic subzones and soil characteristics along the Yamal Arctic Transect, northwestern Siberia

Sustainability of tundra vegetation under changing climate on the Yamal Peninsula, northwestern Siberia, home to the world's largest area of reindeer husbandry, is of crucial importance to the local native community. An integrated investigation is needed for better understanding of the effects of soils, climate change and grazing on tundra vegetation in the Yamal region. In this study we applied a nutrient-based plant community model - ArcVeg - to evaluate how two factors (soil organic nitrogen (SON) levels and grazing) interact to affect tundra responses to climate warming across a latitudinal climatic gradient on the Yamal Peninsula. Model simulations were driven by field-collected soil data and expected grazing patterns along the Yamal Arctic Transect (YAT), within bioclimate subzones C (high arctic), D (northern low arctic) and E (southern low arctic). Plant biomass and NPP (net primary productivity) were significantly increased with warmer bioclimate subzones, greater soil nutrient levels and temporal climate warming, while they declined with higher grazing frequency. Temporal climate warming of 2 °C caused an increase of 665 g/m**2 in total biomass at the high SON site in subzone E, but only 298 g/m**2 at the low SON site. When grazing frequency was also increased, total biomass increased by only 369 g/m**2 at the high SON site in contrast to 184 g/m**2 at the low SON site in subzone E. Our results suggest that high SON can support greater plant biomass and plant responses to climate warming, while low SON and grazing may limit plant response to climate change. In addition to the first order factors (SON, bioclimate subzones, grazing and temporal climate warming), interactions among these significantly affect plant biomass and productivity in the arctic tundra and should not be ignored in regional scale studies.

Ice velocities of Nordenskiöldbreen glacier, Svalbard

Precise measurements of ice-flow velocities are necessary for a proper understanding of the dynamics of glaciers and their response to climate change. We use stand-alone single-frequency GPS receivers for this purpose. They are designed to operate unattended for 1-3 years, allowing uninterrupted measurements for long periods with hourly temporal resolution. We present the system and illustrate its functioning using data from 9 GPS receivers deployed on Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, for the period 2006-2009. The accuracy of the receivers is 1.62 m based on the standard deviation in the average location of a stationary reference station (NBRef). Both the location of NBRef and the observed flow velocities agree within one standard deviation with DGPS measurements. Periodicity (6, 8, 12, 24 h) in the NBRef data is largely explained by the atmospheric, mainly ionospheric, influence on the GPS signal. A (weighed) running-average on the observed locations significantly reduces the standard deviation and removes high frequency periodicities, but also reduces the temporal resolution. Results show annual average velocities varying between 40 and 55 m/yr at stations on the central flow-line. On weekly to monthly time-scales we observe a peak in the flow velocities (from 60 to 90 m/yr) at the beginning of July related to increased melt-rates. No significant lag is observed between the timing of the maximum speed between different stations. This is likely due to the limited temporal resolution after averaging in combination with the relatively small distance (max. ±13 km) between the stations.

Stable isotope stratigraphy of ODP Site 167-1014

Late Quaternary oxygen (d18O) and carbon (d13C) isotopic records for the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina and the planktonic foraminifer Globigerina bulloides are presented for the upper 20 meters composite depth sediment sequence of Ocean Drilling Program Site 1014, Tanner Basin, in the outer California Borderland province. The benthic oxygen isotopic record documents a continuous >160-k.y. sequence from marine isotope Stage (MIS) 6 to the present day. The record closely resembles other late Quaternary North Pacific benthic isotope records, as well as the well-dated deep-sea sequence (SPECMAP), and thus provides a detailed chronologic framework. Site 1014 provides a useful record of the California response to climate change as it enters the southern California Border-land. Sedimentation rates are relatively constant and high (~11.5 cm/k.y. ). The planktonic foraminiferal record is well pre-served except during marine isotope Substages 5b and 5d, when normally high G. bulloides abundance is strongly diminished as a result of dissolution. The planktonic oxygen isotopic shift of ~3 per mil between the last glacial maximum and the Holocene suggests a surface water temperature shift of <7°C, similar to estimates from Hole 893A (Leg 146) to the north. Unlike Santa Barbara Basin, G. bulloides d18O values during the last interglacial (MIS 5) at Site 1014 were significantly higher than during the Holocene. In particular, marine isotope Substage 5e (Eemian) was ~0.8 per mil higher. This is unlikely to reflect a cooler Eemian but is instead the result of preferential dissolution of thin-shelled (low d18O) specimens during this interval. In this mid-depth basin, a large benthic d18O shift during Termination I suggests dramatic temperature and salinity changes in response to switches in the source of North Pacific Intermediate Water. Although d13C values of the planktonic foraminifer G. bulloides are in disequilibria with seawater and hence interpretations are limited, the G. bulloides record exhibits several negative d13C excursions found at other sites in the region (Sites 1017 and 893). This indicates a response of G. bulloides d13C to regional surface water processes along the southern California margin. A general increase in benthic carbon isotopic values (-1.75 per mil to -0.75 per mil) in Tanner Basin during the last 200 k.y. is overprinted with smaller fluctuations correlated with climate change. The coolest intervals during the last glacial maximum (MISs 2 and 4) exhibit lower benthic d13C values, which correlate with global 13C shifts. The opposite relationship is exhibited during the last interglacial before 85 ka, when lower benthic d13C values are associated with warmer intervals (marine isotope Substages 5c and 5e) of the last interglacial. These time intervals were also marked by decreased intermediate water ventilation. Increased dissolution and organic accumulation during Substages 5b and 5d are anticorrelated with the benthic d13C record. These results suggest that a delicate balance in intermediate water d13C has existed between the relative influences of global 13C and regional ventilation changes at the 1165-m water depth of Site 1014.

Individual foraminifera variability from the western and eastern equatorial Pacific during the Late Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

Habitat Map for Lizard Island reef, Australia derived from a photo-transect survey field data collected in December 2011 and September/October 2012

An object based image analysis approach (OBIA) was used to create a habitat map of the Lizard Reef. Briefly, georeferenced dive and snorkel photo-transect surveys were conducted at different locations surrounding Lizard Island, Australia. For the surveys, a snorkeler or diver swam over the bottom at a depth of 1-2m in the lagoon, One Tree Beach and Research Station areas, and 7m depth in Watson's Bay, while taking photos of the benthos at a set height using a standard digital camera and towing a surface float GPS which was logging its track every five seconds. The camera lens provided a 1.0 m x 1.0 m footprint, at 0.5 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by fin kicks, and corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was done based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Dominant benthic or substrate cover type was assigned to each photo by placing 24 points random over each image using the Coral Point Count excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned a dominant cover type using a benthic cover type classification scheme containing nine first-level categories - seagrass high (>=70%), seagrass moderate (40-70%), seagrass low (<= 30%), coral, reef matrix, algae, rubble, rock and sand. Benthic cover composition summaries of each photo were generated automatically in CPCe. The resulting benthic cover data for each photo was linked to GPS coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 56 South. The OBIA class assignment followed a hierarchical assignment based on membership rules with levels for "reef", "geomorphic zone" and "benthic community" (above).

Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.