7 resultados para peaks-over-threshold

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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High-latitude ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the climate system and are presently undergoing rapid environmental change. Accurate land cover data sets are required to both document these changes as well as to provide land-surface information for benchmarking and initializing Earth system models. Earth system models also require specific land cover classification systems based on plant functional types (PFTs), rather than species or ecosystems, and so post-processing of existing land cover data is often required. This study compares over Siberia, multiple land cover data sets against one another and with auxiliary data to identify key uncertainties that contribute to variability in PFT classifications that would introduce errors in Earth system modeling. Land cover classification systems from GLC 2000, GlobCover 2005 and 2009, and MODIS collections 5 and 5.1 are first aggregated to a common legend, and then compared to high-resolution land cover classification systems, vegetation continuous fields (MODIS VCFs) and satellite-derived tree heights (to discriminate against sparse, shrub, and forest vegetation). The GlobCover data set, with a lower threshold for tree cover and taller tree heights and a better spatial resolution, tends to have better distributions of tree cover compared to high-resolution data. It has therefore been chosen to build new PFT maps for the ORCHIDEE land surface model at 1 km scale. Compared to the original PFT data set, the new PFT maps based on GlobCover 2005 and an updated cross-walking approach mainly differ in the characterization of forests and degree of tree cover. The partition of grasslands and bare soils now appears more realistic compared with ground truth data. This new vegetation map provides a framework for further development of new PFTs in the ORCHIDEE model like shrubs, lichens and mosses, to represent the water and carbon cycles in northern latitudes better. Updated land cover data sets are critical for improving and maintaining the relevance of Earth system models for assessing climate and human impacts on biogeochemistry and biophysics.

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The satellite derived HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite data) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets have been validated against in-situ precipitation measurements from ship rain gauges and optical disdrometers over the open-ocean by applying a statistical analysis for binary forecasts. For this purpose collocated pairs of data were merged within a certain temporal and spatial threshold into single events, according to the satellites' overpass, the observation and the forecast times. HOAPS detects the frequency of precipitation well, while ERA-Interim strongly overestimates it, especially in the tropics and subtropics. Although precipitation rates are difficult to compare because along-track point measurements are collocated with areal estimates and the numbers of available data are limited, we find that HOAPS underestimates precipitation rates, while ERA-Interim's Atlantic-wide average precipitation rate is close to measurements. However, regionally averaged over latitudinal belts, there are deviations between the observed mean precipitation rates and ERA-Interim. The most obvious ERA-Interim feature is an overestimation of precipitation in the area of the intertropical convergence zone and the southern sub-tropics over the Atlantic Ocean. For a limited number of snow measurements by optical disdrometers it can be concluded that both HOAPS and ERA-Interim are suitable to detect the occurrence of solid precipitation.

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The Agulhas Ridge, off the tip of Africa between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, is ideally located to capture the evolution of Paleogene-early Neogene circulation patterns associated with global cooling. Multiproxy records of productivity (biogenic barium (Baex), opal, CaCO3 mass accumulation rates (MARs)), nutrient and organic carbon burial (reactive phosphorus (Pr) MARs), and redox state of deep waters (U enrichment) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1090 reflect hydrographic shifts in this region between the middle Eocene and early Oligocene (~9-33 Ma). Several peaks in increased export productivity and burial of organic matter occurred within the late Eocene (~36.5, ~34, and ~33.7 Ma), which along with surface hydrologic conditions favoring opaline organisms over calcareous organisms could have aided in the draw down of pCO2 to a threshold level that facilitated large ice sheet development on Antarctica in the earliest Oligocene. Our multiproxy approach illustrates the importance of vertical as well as spatial hydrographic reorganization in amplifying or driving climatic cooling of the middle Eocene to early Oligocene by facilitating increases in the relative or absolute burial of organic carbon.

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During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the dominant glacial-interglacial cyclicity as inferred from the marine d18O records of benthic foraminifera (d18Obenthic) changed from 41 kyr to 100 kyr years in the absence of a comparable change in orbital forcing. Currently, only two Mg/Ca-derived, high-resolution bottom water temperature (BWT) records exist that can be used with d18Obenthic records to separate temperature and ice volume signals over the Pleistocene. However, these two BWT records suggest a different pattern of climate change occurred over the MPT-a record from North Atlantic DSDP Site 607 suggests BWT decreased with no long-term trend in ice volume over the MPT, while South Pacific ODP Site 1123 suggests that BWT has been relatively stable over the last 1.5 Myr but that there was an abrupt increase in ice volume at ~900 kyr. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these two views of climate change across the MPT. Specifically, we investigated the suggestion that the secular BWT trend obtained from Mg/Ca measurements on Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and Oridorsalis umbonatus species from N. Atlantic Site 607 is biased by the possible influence of D[CO3]2- on Mg/Ca values in these species by generating a low-resolution BWT record using Uvigerina spp., a genus whose Mg/Ca values are not thought to be influenced by D[CO3]2-. We find a long-term BWT cooling of ~2-3°C occurred from 1500 to ~500 kyr in the N. Atlantic, consistent with the previously generated C. wuellerstorfi and O. umbonatus BWT record. We also find that changes in ocean circulation likely influenced d18Obenthic, BWT, and d18Oseawater records across the MPT. N. Atlantic BWT cooling starting at ~1.2 Ma, presumably driven by high-latitude cooling, may have been a necessary precursor to a threshold response in climate-ice sheet behavior at ~900 ka. At that point, a modest increase in ice volume and thermohaline reorganization may have caused enhanced sensitivity to the 100 kyr orbital cycle.