Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

Water temperature and salinity data from southern elephant seals from Marion Island

Over the last decade, several hundred seals have been equipped with conductivity-temperature-depth sensors in the Southern Ocean for both biological and physical oceanographic studies. A calibrated collection of seal-derived hydrographic data is now available, consisting of more than 165,000 profiles. The value of these hydrographic data within the existing Southern Ocean observing system is demonstrated herein by conducting two state estimation experiments, differing only in the use or not of seal data to constrain the system. Including seal-derived data substantially modifies the estimated surface mixedlayer properties and circulation patterns within and south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Agreement with independent satellite observations of sea ice concentration is improved, especially along the East Antarctic shelf. Instrumented animals efficiently reduce a critical observational gap, and their contribution to monitoring polar climate variability will continue to grow as data accuracy and spatial coverage increase.

Western Arabian Sea SST estimation

Millennial-scale records of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca, bulk sediment UK37', and planktonic foraminiferal d18O are presented across the last two deglaciations in sediment core NIOP929 from the Arabian Sea. Mg/Ca-derived temperature variability during the penultimate and last deglacial periods falls within the range of modern day Arabian Sea temperatures, which are influenced by monsoon-driven upwelling. The UK37'-derived temperatures in MIS 5e are similar to modern intermonsoon values and are on average 3.5°C higher than the Mg/Ca temperatures in the same period. MIS 5e UK37' and Mg/Ca temperatures are 1.5°C warmer than during the Holocene, while the UK37'-Mg/Ca temperature difference was about twice as large during MIS 5e. This is surprising as, nowadays, both proxy carriers have a very similar seasonal and depth distribution. Partial explanations for the MIS 5e UK37'-Mg/Ca temperature offset include carbonate dissolution, the change in dominant alkenone-producing species, and possibly lateral advection of alkenone-bearing material and a change in seasonal or depth distribution of proxy carriers. Our findings suggest that (1) Mg/Ca of G. ruber documents seawater temperature in the same way during both studied deglaciations as in the present, with respect to, e.g., season and depth, and (2) UK37'-based temperatures from MIS 5 (or older) represent neither upwelling SST nor annual average SST (as it does in the present and the Holocene) but a higher temperature, despite alkenone production mainly occurring in the upwelling season. Further we report that at the onset of the deglacial warming, the Mg/Ca record leads the UK37' record by 4 ka, of which a maximum of 2 ka may be explained by postdepositional processes. Deglacial warming in both temperature records leads the deglacial decrease in the d18O profile, and Mg/Ca-based temperature returns to lower values before d18O has reached minimum interglacial values. This indicates a substantial lead in Arabian Sea warming relative to global ice melting.

Stable isotope ratios of foraminifera and sea surface temperature estimation of sediment core W2804A-14

Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C (epsilon p) in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last ~255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic compostion of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon p, derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 (c e) based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon p and c e. The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon p versus c e data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon p is inversely related to c e. Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index UK 37. Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon p and 1/c e. These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon p most probably reflects significant variations in Delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from ~110 µatm during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to ~60 µatm during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p < 0.01) inverse correlations of Delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.