Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Geochemistry of evaporite in the Red Sea

One of the major shipboard findings during Leg 23 drilling in the Red Sea was the presence of late Miocene evaporites at Sites 225, 227, and 228. The top of the evaporite sequence correlates with a strong reflector (Reflector S) which has been mapped over much of the Red Sea (Ross et al., 1969, Phillips and Ross, 1970). This indicates that the Red Sea appears to be extent. Miocene sediments, including evaporites, are known from a few outcrops along the coastal plains of the Gulf of Suez to lat 14°N (Sadek, 1959, cited in Friedman, 1972; Heybroek, 1965; Friedman, 1972). Along the length of the Red Sea, the presence of Miocene salt is indicated by seismic reflection studies (Lowell and Genik, 1972) and confirmed by drilling. The recently published data from deep exploratory wells (Ahmed, 1972) demonstrate the great thickness of elastics and evaporites which were deposited in the Red Sea depression during Miocene time. The Red Sea evaporites are of the same age as the evaporites found by deep sea drilling (DSDP Leg 13) in the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, Reflector S in the Red Sea is comparable to Reflector M in the Mediterranean. It is assumed that during Miocene time a connection between these two basins was established (Coleman, this volume) resulting in a similar origin for the evaporites deposited in the Red Sea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The origin of the Mediterranean evaporites has been discussed in great detail (Hsü et al., 1973; Nesteroff, 1973; Friedman, 1973). The formation of evaporites may be interpreted by three different hypotheses. 1) Evaporation of a shallow restricted shelf sea or lagoon which receives inflows from the open ocean. 2) Evaporation of a deep-water basin which is separated from the open ocean by a shallow sill (Schmalz, 1969). 3) Evaporation of playas or salt lakes which are situated in desiccated deep basins isolated from the open ocean (Hsü et al., 1973). The purpose of this study is to show whether one of these models might apply to the formation and deposition of the Red Sea evaporites. Therefore, a detailed petrographic and geochemical investigation was carried out.