Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Geochemistry of Baltic Sea sediments

The Baltic Sea has experienced three major intervals of bottom water hypoxia following the intrusion of seawater ca. 8 kyrs ago. These intervals occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and during recent decades. Here, we show that sequestration of both Fe and Mn in Baltic Sea sediments generally increases with water depth, and we attribute this to shelf-to-basin transfer ("shuttling") of Fe and Mn. Burial of Mn in slope and basin sediments was enhanced following the lake-brackish/marine transition at the beginning of the hypoxic interval during the HTM. During hypoxic intervals, shelf-to-basin transfer of Fe was generally enhanced but that of Mn was reduced. However, intensification of hypoxia within hypoxic intervals led to decreased burial of both Mn and Fe in deep basin sediments. This implies a non-linearity in shelf Fe release upon expanding hypoxia with initial enhanced Fe release relative to oxic conditions followed by increased retention in shelf sediments, likely in the form of iron sulfide minerals. For Mn, extended hypoxia leads to more limited sequestration as Mn carbonate in deep basin sediments, presumably because of more rapid reduction of Mn oxides formed after inflows and subsequent escape of dissolved Mn to the overlying water. Our Fe records suggest that modern Baltic Sea hypoxia is more widespread than in the past. Furthermore, hypoxia-driven variations in shelf-to-basin transfer of Fe may have impacted the dynamics of P and sulfide in the Baltic Sea thus providing potential feedbacks on the further development of hypoxia.