Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and aerobic performance of coral reef fishes during experiments, 2009

Concerns about the impacts of ocean acidification on marine life have mostly focused on how reduced carbonate saturation affects calcifying organisms. Here, we show that levels of CO2-induced acidification that may be attained by 2100 could also have significant effects on marine organisms by reducing their aerobic capacity. The effects of temperature and acidification on oxygen consumption were tested in 2 species of coral reef fishes, Ostorhinchus doederleini and O. cyanosoma, from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The capacity for aerobic activity (aerobic scope) declined at temperatures above the summer average (29°C) and in CO2-acidified water (pH 7.8 and ~1000 ppm CO2) compared to control water (pH 8.15). Aerobic scope declined by 36 and 32% for O. doederleini and O. cyanosoma at temperatures between 29 to 32°C, whereas it declined by 33 and 47% for O. doederleini and O. cyanosoma in acidified water compared to control water. Thus, the declines in aerobic scope in acidified water were similar to those caused by a 3°C increase in water temperature. Minimum aerobic scope values of ~200 mg O2 kg-1 h-1 were attained for both species in acidified water at 32°C, compared with over 600 mg O2 kg-1 h-1 in control water at 29°C. Mortality rate increased sharply at 33°C, indicating that this temperature is close to the lethal thermal limit for both species. Acidification further increased the mortality rate of O. doederleini, but not of O. cyanosoma. These results show that coral reef fishes are sensitive to both higher temperatures and increased levels of dissolved CO2, and that the aerobic performance of some reef fishes could be significantly reduced if climate change continues unabated.

Position measurements at five permanent GPS stations in the Bavarian Alps as part of the Geodetic Alpine Integrated Network (GAIN) of the ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project

In the frame of the transnational ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project, a component of the Alpine Space Programme of the European Community Initiative Programme (CIP) INTERREG III B, the Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) in Munich, Germany, installed in 2005 five continuously operating permanent GPS stations located along the northern Alps boundary in Bavaria. The main objective of the ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project was to build-up a high-performance transnational space geodetic network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers in the Alpine region (the so-called Geodetic Alpine Integrated Network, GAIN). Data from this network allows for studying crustal deformations in near real-time to monitor Earthquake hazard and improve natural disaster prevention. The five GPS stations operatied by DGFI are mounted on concrete pillars attached to solid rock. The names of the stations are (from west to east) Hochgrat (HGRA), Breitenberg (BREI), Fahrenberg (FAHR), Hochries (HRIE) and Wartsteinkopf (WART). The provided data series start from October 7, 2005. Data are stored with a temporal spacing of 15 seconds in daily RINEX files.