Table 1: Soil chemical properties of the analysed depth profiles in the Venice lagoon

Visual traces of iron reduction and oxidation are linked to the redox status of soils and have been used to characterise the quality of agricultural soils.We tested whether this feature could also be used to explain the spatial pattern of the natural vegetation of tidal habitats. If so, an easy assessment of the effect of rising sea level on tidal ecosystems would be possible. Our study was conducted at the salt marshes of the northern lagoon of Venice, which are strongly threatened by erosion and rising sea level and are part of the world heritage 'Venice and its lagoon'. We analysed the abundance of plant species at 255 sampling points along a land-sea gradient. In addition, we surveyed the redox morphology (presence/absence of red iron oxide mottles in the greyish topsoil horizons) of the soils and the presence of disturbances. We used indicator species analysis, correlation trees and multivariate regression trees to analyse relations between soil properties and plant species distribution. Plant species with known sensitivity to anaerobic conditions (e.g. Halimione portulacoides) were identified as indicators for oxic soils (showing iron oxide mottles within a greyish soil matrix). Plant species that tolerate a low redox potential (e.g. Spartina maritima) were identified as indicators for anoxic soils (greyish matrix without oxide mottles). Correlation trees and multivariate regression trees indicate the dominant role of the redox morphology of the soils in plant species distribution. In addition, the distance from the mainland and the presence of disturbances were identified as tree-splitting variables. The small-scale variation of oxygen availability plays a key role for the biodiversity of salt marsh ecosystems. Our results suggest that the redox morphology of salt marsh soils indicates the plant availability of oxygen. Thus, the consideration of this indicator may enable an understanding of the heterogeneity of biological processes in oxygen-limited systems and may be a sensitive and easy-to-use tool to assess human impacts on salt marsh ecosystems.

Mapping decadal land cover changes in the woodlands of north eastern Namibia using the Landsat satellite archive (1975-2014)

Woodland savannahs provide essential ecosystem functions and services to communities. On the African continent, they are widely utilized and converted to intensive land uses. This study investigates the land cover changes of 108,038 km**2 in NE Namibia using multi-temporal, multi-sensor Landsat imagery, at decadal intervals from 1975 to 2014, with a post-classification change detection method and supervised Regression Tree classifiers. We discuss likely impacts of land tenure and reforms over the past four decades on changes in land use and land cover. These changes included losses, gains and exchanges between predominant land cover classes. Exchanges comprised logical conversions between woodland and agricultural classes, implying woodland clearing for arable farming, cropland abandonment and vegetation succession. The most dominant change was a reduction in the area of the woodland class due to the expansion of the agricultural class, specifically, small-scale cereal and pastoral production. Woodland area decreased from 90% of the study area in 1975 to 83% in 2014, while cleared land increased from 9% to 14%. We found that the main land cover changes are conversion from woodland to agricultural and urban land uses, driven by urban expansion and woodland clearing for subsistence-based agriculture and pastoralism.

Literature review of elasmobranch bycatch and retention rate

To address growing concern over the effects of fisheries non-target catch on elasmobranchs worldwide, the accurate reporting of elasmobranch catch is essential. This requires data on a combination of measures, including reported landings, retained and discarded non-target catch, and post-discard survival. Identification of the factors influencing discard vs. retention is needed to improve catch estimates and to determine wasteful fishing practices. To do this we compared retention rates of elasmobranch non-target catch in a broad subset of fisheries throughout the world by taxon, fishing country, and gear. A regression tree and random forest analysis indicated that taxon was the most important determinant of retention in this dataset, but all three factors together explained 59% of the variance. Estimates of total elasmobranch removals were calculated by dividing the FAO global elasmobranch landings by average retention rates and suggest that total elasmobranch removals may exceed FAO reported landings by as much as 400%. This analysis is the first effort to directly characterize global drivers of discards for elasmobranch non-target catch. Our results highlight the importance of accurate quantification of retention and discard rates to improve assessments of the potential impacts of fisheries on these species.

Model parameter

Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

Geospatial analysis of groundwater depth for manual well drilling suitability in the Zinder Region, Niger

Manual and low-tech well drilling techniques have potential to assist in reaching the United Nations' millennium development goal for water in sub-Saharan Africa. This study used publicly available geospatial data in a regression tree analysis to predict groundwater depth in the Zinder region of Niger to identify suitable areas for manual well drilling. Regression trees were developed and tested on a database for 3681 wells in the Zinder region. A tree with 17 terminal leaves provided a range of ground water depth estimates that were appropriate for manual drilling, though much of the tree's complexity was associated with depths that were beyond manual methods. A natural log transformation of groundwater depth was tested to see if rescaling dataset variance would result in finer distinctions for regions of shallow groundwater. The RMSE for a log-transformed tree with only 10 terminal leaves was almost half that of the untransformed 17 leaf tree for groundwater depths less than 10 m. This analysis indicated important groundwater relationships for commonly available maps of geology, soils, elevation, and enhanced vegetation index from the MODIS satellite imaging system.

Oxygen content and paleoproductivity from surface sediment samples Y69-86 to PLDS-004G

Quantitative estimation of surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen concentration with benthic foraminifera was attempted using 70 samples from equatorial and North Pacific surface sediments. These samples come from a well defined depth range in the ocean, between 2200 and 3200 m, so that depth related factors do not interfere with the estimation. Samples were selected so that foraminifera were well preserved in the sediments and temperature and salinity were nearly uniform (T = 1.5° C; S = 34.6 per mil). The sample set was also assembled so as to minimize the correlation often seen between surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen values (r**2 = 0.23 for prediction purposes in this case). This procedure reduced the chances of spurious results due to correlations between the environmental variables. The samples encompass a range of productivities from about 25 to >300 gC m**-2 yr**-1, and a bottom water oxygen range from 1.8 to 3.5 ml/L. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages were quantified using the >62 µm fraction of the sediments and 46 taxon categories. MANOVA multivariate regression was used to project the faunal matrix onto the two environmental dimensions using published values for productivity and bottom water oxygen to calibrate this operation. The success of this regression was measured with the multivariate r? which was 0.98 for the productivity dimension and 0.96 for the oxygen dimension. These high coefficients indicate that both environmental variables are strongly imbedded in the faunal data matrix. Analysis of the beta regression coefficients shows that the environmental signals are carried by groups of taxa which are consistent with previous work characterizing benthic foraminiferal responses to productivity and bottom water oxygen. The results of this study suggest that benthic foraminiferal assemblages can be used for quantitative reconstruction of surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen concentrations if suitable surface sediment calibration data sets are developed and appropriate means for detecting no-analog samples are found.