Shoreline change on nine reef islands over a seven-decade period

Atoll islands are subject to a variety of processes that influence their geomorphological development. Analysis of historical shoreline changes using remotely sensed images has become an efficient approach to both quantify past changes and estimate future island response. However, the detection of long-term changes in beach width is challenging mainly for two reasons: first, data availability is limited for many remote Pacific islands. Second, beach environments are highly dynamic and strongly influenced by seasonal or episodic shoreline oscillations. Consequently, remote-sensing studies on beach morphodynamics of atoll islands deal with dynamic features covered by a low sampling frequency. Here we present a study of beach dynamics for nine islands on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea, over a seven-decade period. A considerable chronological gap between aerial photographs and satellite images was addressed by applying a new method that reweighted positions of the beach limit by identifying "outlier" shoreline positions. On top of natural beach variability observed along the reweighted beach sections, we found that one third of the analyzed islands show a statistically significant decrease in reweighted beach width since 1943. The total loss of beach area for all islands corresponds to 44% of the initial beach area. Variable shoreline trajectories suggest that changes in beach width on Takú Atoll are dependent on local control (that is, human activity and longshore sediment transport). Our results show that remote imagery with a low sampling frequency may be sufficient to characterize prominent morphological changes in planform beach configuration of reef islands.

Medem Channel profiles based on stand-alone model simulation and corrections with nudging

State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80-90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined 'true' state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.

Photographs of the Mount Meager, southwestern British Columbia

On August 6, 2010, a large (~50 Mm**3) debris avalanche occurred on the flank of Mount Meager in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. We studied the deposits to infer the morphodynamics of the landslide from initiation to emplacement. Structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry, based on oblique photos taken with a standard SLR camera during a low helicopter traverse, was used to create high-resolution orthophotos and base maps. Interpretation of the images and maps allowed us to recognize two main rheological phases in the debris avalanche. Just below the source area, in the valley of Capricorn Creek, the landslide separated into two phases, one water-rich and more mobile, and the other water-poor and less mobile. The water-rich phase spread quickly, achieved high superelevation on the valley sides, and left distal scattered deposits. The main water-poor phase moved more slowly, did not superelevate, and formed a thick continuous deposit (up to ~30 m) on the valley floor. The water-poor flow deposit has structural features such as hummocks, brittle-ductile faults, and shear zones. Our study, based on a freshly emplaced deposit, advances understanding of large mass movements by showing that a single landslide can develop multiple rheology phases with different behaviours. Rheological evolution and separation of phases should always be taken into account to provide better risk assessment scenarios.